MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records | Baseball-Reference.com
MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records | Baseball-Reference.com
Standard Stats | Glossary | MLB.com - Major League Baseball
Batting Stats Glossary | Baseball-Reference.com
batting practice | hitmorelinedrives
MLB Stats | Baseball Stats | MLB.com
Baseball stats explained for beginners: Batting statistics
Baseball Stats 101
Baseball stats explained for beginners: Pitching
MLB advanced stats glossary: A guide to baseball stats
baseball batting stats explained
baseball batting stats explained - win
What Was The Best Season Ever by a Reliever? - an Analysis
Relievers. Who are they? What do they do? Until one bright spring day in 1993, nobody knew the answers to these simple questions. Then, MLB scientists made a breakthrough in their labs in the bowels of the Astrodome, and Mariano Rivera sprung forth from his mother’s womb fully formed and sawed off Jason Giambi. But the question they couldn’t answer is ‘what is the best season ever by a reliever?’. At the time, the technology was simply not expansive enough to begin delving into this question. Now, thanks to huge leaps in science, we can finally answer something that has plagued the minds of man since the dawn of humanity. Now, clearly, the answer is Francisco Rodriguez, since he’s the single season save leader and that’s the best stat to measure relievers by. But let’s ignore that. You can just look up which reliever has the most WAR in a single season, which is 1975 Goose Gossage by bWAR (8.2!?!?!) or 1977 Bruce Sutter by fWAR (5.2). The reason for this difference is because BaseballReference uses runs allowed to calculate bWAR, and FanGraphs uses FIP to calculate fWAR. Since relievers pitch such small sample sizes, there’s often a large gap between their FIP and their runs allowed (RA). Since we’re looking at the best season, and not the best player, I’m going to use bWAR (and thus RA) for this exercise. (If you don’t know what FIP is, it stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, which looks at only the outcomes of at-bats which are solely between the pitcher and the batter - home runs, walks, and strikeouts. These stats are thrown together and then given a normalizing factor so that the average league FIP matches the average league ERA. FIP is a wonderful predictive tool, to the point where it is more predictive of a pitcher’s ERA next year than a pitcher’s ERA is. I’d rather not use it here because it doesn’t look at the actual results - if I was trying to find the best reliever, and not the best season, then I’d use FIP.) Using a simple value added stat is incredibly biased towards 1970’s middle relievers who would throw 100+ innings in a year, though. WAR is a counting stat, so the more they pitch, the more they rack up. What about bWAIP? One BBRef search later, and I have this table.
To begin with, bWAR uses RA for its calculations, which uses both earned and unearned runs. Dennys Reyes, Bill Henry, Blake Treinen, Rich Gossage, Fernando Rodney, Dennis Eckersley, and Joey Devine all had more RA/IP in their respective seasons. (The difference between their ERA and their bWAIP isn’t solely explained by this, but it’s good enough for now. We’ll get to that in a moment). This leaves 1986 Rob Murphy and 2016 Zach Britton. Why don’t they stack up? The answer is a little thing I’d like to call ‘run environment’, which is encapsulated by BaseballReference’s stat RA9Avg. It takes what an average pitcher’s run allowed/9 innings (RA/9) was that year, and then adjusts it for park factors, for the defense, and for who that specific pitcher faced. If a pitcher had a relatively high run environment, it means he would be pitching in batter’s parks, faced tough opponents, had a bad defense behind him, etc. For a perfectly average pitcher, their RA/9 will match their run environment. For Murphy, his run environment was 4.11. For Britton, it was 4.32. For Papelbon, it was a whopping 5.00. This makes a huge difference - Papelbon may have gotten slightly worse results, but he was starting from a much more difficult positions. For another good way to illuminate the differences run environments can cause, I can bring up one of my favorite WAR comparisons! In 1965, Jim Maloney equalled Sandy Koufax in bWAR (and surpassed him if you count batting WAR) despite throwing 80 fewer innings with an ERA 0.50 higher. How did he do this? Simple. Sandy Koufax played in cavernous Dodger Stadium with a strong Dodger defense behind him, and so had a run environment of 3.49 RA/9. Jim Maloney, pitching at batter-friendly Crosley Stadium with a poor Reds defense behind him, had a run environment of 4.34, 0.85 more than Koufax. Since Maloney is expected to give up far more runs than Koufax and only gives up somewhat more runs, he has a large bWAIP lead. Run environment is 99% of the explanation behind ‘why does WAR give this weird result?’ questions. Most of the best reliever seasons by ERA have relatively a low run environment - after all, good defense and a friendly park factor really helps a reliever keep the runs down. Fernando Rodney had a run environment of 3.72 in his 0.60 ERA season, because he pitched at the Tropicana and had the Rays defense behind him. Mariano Rivera consistently had a high run environment (career average of 4.72) due to pitching in Yankee Stadium with horrible, horrible, horrible Yankees defenses behind him going against tough AL East opponents. He never had that ‘lucky’ season with a sub-1 ERA, which would likely have put him on this list. He has to live with the stigma of simply being the greatest reliever of all time, unfortunately. Papelbon had an incredible season in a run environment that was incredibly ill-suited for having an incredible season, so his bWAIP is leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else. So is Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 the greatest single season by a reliever ever? Well, maybe. Pound-for-pound, it certainly is. But some relievers can pound more often than others, even if they're not pounding quite as hard. Should 70’s and 80’s relievers be penalized for being slightly worse in twice as many innings as Papelbon? John Hiller’s 1973 is a good candidate if you prefer quantity over quality - 7.9 bWAR in 125 innings in relief. Of course, you can flip it around - why penalize Papelbon for pitching less when relievers of that era were expected to pitch less? With the bWAIP, it’s safe to say Papelbon was more dominant in his role than Hiller was in his. Are there arguments for other pitchers and other seasons? Absolutely. Perhaps you prefer FIP for some reason - then you can probably give the nod to 2003 Eric Gagne, with 4.7 fWAR in 82 innings. I don’t think FIP works well for this type of analysis, because it doesn’t deal with actual results, but you do you. Perhaps you want to dive into BABIP and pick a season that wasn't as lucky - this seems like a fool's errand, since the best reliever seasons are all lucky ones. Of course, if you believe the best ability is availability, the nod goes to Mike Marshall, who appeared in 106 (!?!) games for the 1974 Dodgers. His 2.42 ERA is tarnished somewhat by the 3.33 run environment at Dodger Stadium at the time, however. Marshall apparently still has very interesting ideas on training to be able to pitch that many innings, but no MLB training staff will let him near their pitchers for some reason. Now, I know we’d all like someone else to have the best relief season ever in baseball - someone who didn’t attack teammates, someone who didn’t watch porn in the clubhouse, someone who doesn’t hit Manny Macha - ok, I’m fine with that one. But why couldn’t it have been someone like Eric Gagne, or Robb Nen, or Heathcliff Slocumb? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything negative about those guys. Maybe it’s just time to move on, and let bygones be bygones. As I understand, Papelbon is just 24 hours from picking a new team, so it’ll be exciting to see him back in the league. Hopefully, he doesn’t choke his comeback.
[OC] Why Paul Depodesta might be making the Browns the most efficient team in the league in terms of spending, talent, and wins.
We all know Paul Depodesta as the analytical "guru" that was brought in to change how the Browns process the game of football, and morph the way in which the Browns evaluate talent and success.
Depo is a pretty tight lipped executive, he likes to lurk in the shadows and does his work rather than live in the spotlight like other execs. Every indication from the team this year has pointed to Depo having a larger say in operational decisions and talent evaluation, as opposed to years past it seems (Looking at you Dorsey, Freddie, and Hue). But I really wanted to get a deeper understanding of what he was bringing to the table, so I did some research, read his quotes, watched his interviews, and gleamed what I could about his expertise and processes. I thought I’d share some of my key takeaways. Paul learned from A’s GM Billy Beane and sabermetrics creator Bill James to challenge accepted trends and the inefficient understanding of sports. Our eyes deceive us when it comes to talent, we have inherent biases and an inaccurate understanding of what makes a team good. More specifically he challenges the notion of what makes an exceptionally talented team, and how/when/why you acquire the players that make up that team. What Depo has done in every other sporting franchise that he has been a part of, is to create and test a simple equation for wins. Actually wins added I should say. What can a team do to create wins through a player’s output? In baseball it has been relatively easy historically, more runs scored and less runs allowed = more wins. Over a long season and a large enough dataset you can almost predict these two things before you ever play a game just by looking at your players’ key sabermetrics (within a margin of error of course). Depo and Bill Beane did just that in the early 2000s and revolutionized the game of baseball. This is in my opinion Depo’s bread and better. He simplifies the grand scope of a sport into this easily digestible question. This is probably the question he posed to the Brown’s ownership on his first day. The mark for the A’s? 95 wins. That’s how many it takes to get to the playoffs on average in baseball. In the NFL it’s about 11 wins, and that’s the goal for the Browns. The challenge for Depo back then was quantifying how runs came to be in a game. Was it RBIs? No. Was it Batting Average? Definitely No. Was it Walks? Yes, sort of. It was a combination of putting people on base in any way possible and then hitting them home consistently. Depo valued one stat over all others, OBPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging). It didn’t matter how the player got there as long as they put themselves in a place to score and the next person brought them home. The A’s went as far as to seek out laughably unconventional ballplayers as long as they filled this stat column (fat guys, old guys, short guys, slow guys, etc). And they told everyone from the minors up that they needed to walk more as well. The next question we might have at this point, is does a similar stat exist in football, or can we create an equation that produces a valuable football stat like OBPS to baseball? * Well no not really, at least it’s not a totally provable hypothesis as of yet. Notably because there are lot more positions in football and each position is graded on a different scale of course. Although organizations like Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus do try their damndest to find these value stats for each position, nevertheless their methodology may still be flawed. DYAR and DVOA stats are a good jumping off point in this area as well https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods.
*An educated guesser might speculate an indicator similar to OBPS for a team offense is a combination of scoring efficiency and ball control, for defense maybe a combination of turnovers created and red zone stops. But who knows honestly, smarter men than me have probably pondered this for much longer than I have and been paid very well for their thoughts. Paul has indicated in interviews though that he and the Browns front office may have found something similar to this treasured sabermetric in football but he’s very coy and hush-hush regarding tangible football stats the team looks for.
https://youtu.be/CGSDm-xQNlE?t=157 here’s just one example of him discussing draft indicators. In football it’s increasingly more difficult to suss out indicators that player stats correlate with team success. First there's much less data to work with, the NFL has 16 games a year, college even less. The other challenge is that the game is played wholly differently depending on schemes, players, and situation. Think Air Raid vs. Power run. And thus the players in these systems must adapt to their surroundings. Lastly the talent pool is much smaller in football than in baseball, 40 rounds of drafting are more forgiving for finding talent than 7 rounds of course. Which leads to another Depo fact, Playing time and performance at the college level is much more valuable than raw potential and athleticism. He spells this out in Moneyball a lot. The A’s never drafted high school players, contrary to all other MLB teams they despised young five tool ballplayers. In fact they really only drafted college players with significant statistical output and playing time to back the data up. If you look at the Browns’ most recent drafts then you will notice this exact trend being used especially with top draft picks. Take a look: Baker Mayfield: 4 year starter. NCAA record holder & Heisman Winner Denzel Ward: 3 years of play, 2 years starting. All American Nick Chubb: 4 year starter. SEC record holder Jedrick Wills: 3 year starter. All American Harrison Bryant: 3 year starter. All American. Mackey Award Grant Delpit: 3 year starter. 2 x All American, Thorpe Award Jacob Phillips: 3 year starter Donovan Peoples Jones: 3 year starter Outlier: Greedy Williams These players simply produced in college and they produced over multiple years. Depodesta sees a correlation between on field production and future success for sure. Physical traits are always secondary in this regard. I believe Depo values a few positions more than any other on the football field as well. Number one is The Quarterback (I know that’s obvious). They are the hitter in football. They control the offense, the majority of scoring, and the flow of the game. I think that Depo saw something in Baker Mayfield that lit up his talent indicator more than any other college player this decade besides maybe Mahomes and Burrow. He doesn’t just want a game manager; he wants an extra efficient game controller, somebody who puts their team in a position to score on every possible drive (similar to getting on base in baseball). College Baker is a stat nerd’s wet dream. The mixture of total yards, touchdowns, turnover efficiency, and completions is truly a sight to behold. Just take a look at these statistical comparisons before his draft https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018
Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017
QBASE Players
Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 That’s rarified air Baker is put in there, and it was an important indicator for me to jump on his bandwagon early on. Although I will say don’t be totally surprised if the Browns move on from Baker if this year he doesn’t show better production in the second half. Billy Beane and Depo regularly traded or let walk great players if they felt they could find similar efficiency in the market or draft. Eg. Jason Giambi, Ben Grieve, Carlos Pena to name a few. Sidenote: Screw Freddie Kitchens and the rest of the former offensive staff for setting Baker back a year by the way. In my opinion, if we had Stefanski last year then Baker most likely wouldn’t have regressed as sharply as we saw. Another position group he most likely values significantly is the O Line. Without them the offensive efficiency grinds to a halt both throwing the ball and running the ball. Expect lots of money and draft capital to be tied up in these guys every year. Lastly I think on the defensive side he values disruptive players, guys who grind the game to a halt and create offensive opportunities through turnovers. It also gives our "hitter" aka quarterback a chance to score immediately, and damn is our turnover rate good this year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm The 49ers front office built their team around this concept as well last year. Defensive Ends and Cornerbacks come to mind immediately here as positons of importance. I don’t think the team expected Olivier Vernon and Greedy Williams to be out for as many games as they have been which may have thrown a slight wrench in the franchise’s plan sadly. A point hammered home by Depo repeatedly this year is that Everyone in the organization from the top down has to be on the same page when it comes to macro strategies in sports. That includes the owner, GM, scouts, and coaches. Indicated by Depo here: https://youtu.be/JjFYRSikVEk?t=53 Depo expressed that's why he brought in Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski specifically this season. Depo and Haslam explained to them what system they were trying to build for the Browns and they needed everyone on board before signing off on their hires (Dorsey and Hue didn’t buy in totally). Billy Beane realized this organizational view early on and his disciple Paul definitely preaches this as well. Now they have a cavalcade of Ivy League economics majors running an NFL team with the same goal in mind, get more wins through any means possible. In Oakland he was tasked with finding out how to add wins with talent that cost substantially less than his opposition. I mean we’re talking magnitudes less of capital ($40m vs $140m). It was thought impossible to compete with large team payrolls at the time. Baseball’s commissioner even put together a panel of economic experts that flat out told him that professional baseball was broken and that competitiveness relied solely on the amount of money spent on talent. Billy Beane and Depo scoffed at that conclusion and proceeded to drag a bunch of misfits and outcasts to Oakland’s best regular season ever. He also did similar with the Mets ten years later (RA Dickey anyone?). Which brings me to the last and possibly most observable takeaway from the browns strategy this season. Homegrown talent is significantly cheaper than acquired talent and you should use that homegrown talent for as long as possible and for as little money as possible. The Browns have the lowest salary in the league right now and are the only team in the bottom 10 salaries to have 4+ wins. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/ It’s hard to say for certain if Depo is directly responsible for this but it’s safe to assume that he brought a little moneyball swagger to our beloved team. The extensions of key players will be something to watch out for this season and next season as well (Myles is secured, Ward and Baker are next). The A’s were masters of replacing outgoing or expiring talent with cheaper players and regularly fleeced teams with trades that seemed insignificant and stupid at first glance. If the Browns make a trade this year then look for them to add a player with at least two years remaining on their contract and probably someone who isn’t flashy or raw but produces consistently in key categories. It’s hard to tell how much of our success this year so far is due to Depodesta’s overall decision making and influence, or Dorsey’s drafting and player evaluation (mind you we have kept most of the scouting staff from the past 4 years as well). I lean towards the former personally. Really it’s the first time in forever that I’ve felt the team is in good hands and that we are working towards something exceptional with clear goals in mind. I love where the Browns stand right now in the division and I love where they could be in the next few years. I think we finally have a culture and strategy that is set to acquire and utilize talent like our franchise has never seen. Paul Depodesta might be the shadowy puppet master that some people imagine but I think simply he is man that is able to communicate clear and concise goals and make an exceptionally efficient plan on how to achieve them. TLDR. I read Moneyball and had a wet dream about the Browns making the playoffs finally and then losing to New York.
Working hard on Cyberpunk 2077 (14 hours a day actually). My goal is to bring to the community the most complete How to and Where to guides playlist for the game. This is what I done so far: PS: Updated list with new content can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/HTF_Games_Studio/
American trying to understand Cricket: some questions and observations
Hello, American here. Many times over the years I have had British or Indian friends try to explain Cricket to me and without some kind of visual aids, my eyes have always just kind of glazed over. Recently I decided to sit down and figure it out once and for all. I watched some YT videos describing the game and then went on to highlights and some matches. I was surprised to find that it is actually nowhere near as complicated as I thought. I think most Americans get hung up on all terminology and how different it looks in play compared to baseball. But honestly, I think baseball is way more complicated. So while I'm sure I don't understand its subtleties I can now watch a match and have a general understanding of what is going on and appreciate the skill and athleticism of the players. I still have a few questions though. Would love to get some feedback. Apologies if I have anything confused or ask an idiotic question. Still trying to figure things out. Okay, so one thing that confused me at first: in one video I was watching it said something like, "After a bowler completes an over he is replaced with a new player from his team who bowls the next over from the opposite direction." This lead me to believe at first that all 11 players bowl at one time or another. Like there was a "bowling order" where player 1 bowls the first over then player 2 bowls the next one, etc., all the way to player 11. It only took watching one match to realize that was wrong and that, like a pitcher in American baseball, bowling is a very specialized position with different styles, etc. A couple of questions, though:
Are there any laws regarding who bowls other than you can't bowl two overs in a row? In other words, other than that one rule, is it just completely up to the team who they want to have bowl for any given over?
Over the course of a test match for example, how many different bowlers would there be typically?
After a bowler is done with their over, they return to the field and become a fieldsman, correct? Is there a particular position that bowlers tend to play when they're not bowling?
Okay a few random questions:
In this video (at 4:00) they show the lineup for the match. Some people have a ball next to their names, some a bat and some both. At first I thought it meant that only some players bat and others never bat (this actually makes sense to a baseball fan, because in most American baseball games, pitchers do not bat). But the laws state pretty clearly that all 11 players have to bat, correct? If so, what do the bats and balls in the graphic indicate?
Regarding the 12th man: What happens if there are two injuries in a game? Does the team just carry on with just 10 players?
In most videos I saw, the fieldsman playing the infield are usually fairly spread out. But there were a few where they were playing really, really close to the batsman, basically surrounding him in a close (15-20 feet maybe?) circle. What is going on there?
One thing I found really interesting is that the thing that gets really celebrated in Cricket is getting a player out. Sure, there is cheering for a run or a 4 or especially a 6. But what the players and the crowd really gets pumped about is getting somebody out. And this makes sense because in Cricket an innings is long and outs are rare so, yeah, it's a big deal when you get somebody out and you're that much closer to ending them running up the score on you so you can get your turn to bat. But my question is: isn't this mostly true for test matches where there are unlimited overs? In T20, for example, is the value of an out cheapened because (and correct me if I'm wrong here) the innings will most like end on overs and not outs?
Related to the previous question: in T20 is it typical that sometimes some players never get to bat because the innings ended on overs before they got a chance? Again, I could be making an incorrect assumption (or misunderstanding something) about T20 matches typically ending on overs, but it seems like that would make sense because otherwise what is the point of limited overs? If so, how do players that are typically tail-enders feel about this form? Seems like it would be less fun if I never got to bat and was just relegated to a permanent fieldsman.
Are Cricket fans as big of stat nerds as baseball fans? In baseball there are tons of statistics that are kept track of, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, hitting streaks, most hits in a season, most career hits, most stolen bases, etc. It goes on and on. What are some of the things Cricket fans pay attention to? What are some of the legendary never-to-be-beaten records in Cricket?
One last observation: loved watching highlights of bowling legends, esp. those like Shane Warne who could put that nasty spin on the ball and make batsmen look foolish. Any baseball fan can appreciate that! Edit: thanks for all the great answers. Really helped clear things up for me!
A comprehensive list of books that will help you think clearly
A comprehensive list of books that might be of interest to people that want to read something that would improve their thinking or some friends? I have not read many of these, thus I can not personally vouch for all of them or recommend one over the other. I'm not affiliated with Goodreads, but linked to them since I wanted to include the ratings and they have links to several different sources including libraries if you want to borrow or acquire any one of these, and often some quality reviews. The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths by Michael Shermer 3.93 · Rating details · 6,985 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9754534-the-believing-brain The Believing Brain is bestselling author Michael Shermer's comprehensive and provocative theory on how beliefs are born, formed, reinforced, challenged, changed, and extinguished. In this work synthesizing thirty years of research, psychologist, historian of science, and the world's best-known skeptic Michael Shermer upends the traditional thinking about how humans form beliefs about the world. Simply put, beliefs come first and explanations for beliefs follow. The brain, Shermer argues, is a belief engine. From sensory data flowing in through the senses, the brain naturally begins to look for and find patterns, and then infuses those patterns with meaning. Our brains connect the dots of our world into meaningful patterns that explain why things happen, and these patterns become beliefs. Once beliefs are formed the brain begins to look for and find confirmatory evidence in support of those beliefs, which accelerates the process of reinforcing them, and round and round the process goes in a positive-feedback loop of belief confirmation. Shermer outlines the numerous cognitive tools our brains engage to reinforce our beliefs as truths. Interlaced with his theory of belief, Shermer provides countless real-world examples of how this process operates, from politics, economics, and religion to conspiracy theories, the supernatural, and the paranormal. Ultimately, he demonstrates why science is the best tool ever devised to determine whether or not a belief matches reality. Critical Thinking: Tools for Taking Charge of Your Professional and Personal Life by Richard Paul, Linda Elder 3.93 · Rating details · 1,082 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17296839-critical-thinking Critical Thinking is about becoming a better thinker in every aspect of your life: in your career, and as a consumer, citizen, friend, parent, and lover. Discover the core skills of effective thinking; then analyze your own thought processes, identify weaknesses, and overcome them. Learn how to translate more effective thinking into better decisions, less frustration, more wealth Ñ and above all, greater confidence to pursue and achieve your most important goals in life. The Thinker's Guide to Analytic Thinking by Linda Elder,Richard Paul 3.89 · Rating details · 163 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19227921-the-thinker-s-guide-to-analytic-thinking This guide focuses on the intellectual skills that enable one to analyze anything one might think about - questions, problems, disciplines, subjects, etc. It provides the common denominator between all forms of analysis. It is based on the assumption that all reasoning can be taken apart and analyzed for quality. This guide introduces the elements of reasoning as implicit in all reasoning. It begins with this idea - that whenever we think, we think for a purpose, within a point of view, based on assumptions, leading to implications and consequences. We use data, facts and experiences (information), to make inferences and judgments,based on concepts and theories to answer a question or solve a problem. Thus the elements of thought are: purpose, questions, information, inferences, assumptions, concepts, implications and point of view. In this guide, authors Linda Elder and Richard Paul explain, exemplify and contextualize these elements or structures of thought, showing the importance of analyzing reasoning in every part of human life. This guide can be used as a supplement to any text or course at the college level; and it may be used for improving thinking in personal and professional life. The Thinker's Guide to Intellectual Standards by Linda Elder, Richard Paul 4.19 · Rating details · 16 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19017637-the-thinker-s-guide-to-intellectual-standards Humans routinely assess thinking – their own thinking, and that of others, and yet they don’t necessarily use standards for thought that are reasonable, rational, sound. To think well, people need to routinely meet intellectual standards, standards of clarity, precision, accuracy, relevance, depth, logic, fairness, significance, and so forth. In this guide authors Elder and Paul offer a brief analysis of some of the most important intellectual standards in the English language. They look at the opposites of these standards. They argue for their contextualization within subjects and disciplines. And, they call attention to the forces that undermine their skilled use in thinking well. At present intellectual standards tend to be either taught implicitly, or ignored in instruction. Yet because they are essential to high quality reasoning in every part of human life, they should be explicitly taught and explicitly understood. The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide by Gleb Tsipursky (Goodreads Author) 4.24 · Rating details · 63 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36800752-the-truth-seeker-s-handbook How do you know whether something is true? How do you convince others to believe the facts? Research shows that the human mind is prone to making thinking errors - predictable mistakes that cause us to believe comfortable lies over inconvenient truths. These errors leave us vulnerable to making decisions based on false beliefs, leading to disastrous consequences for our personal lives, relationships, careers, civic and political engagement, and for our society as a whole. Fortunately, cognitive and behavioral scientists have uncovered many useful strategies for overcoming our mental flaws. This book presents a variety of research-based tools for ensuring that our beliefs are aligned with reality. With examples from daily life and an engaging style, the book will provide you with the skills to avoid thinking errors and help others to do so, preventing disasters and facilitating success for yourself, those you care about, and our society. On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not by Robert A. Burton 3.90 · Rating details · 2,165 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2740964-on-being-certain You recognize when you know something for certain, right? You "know" the sky is blue, or that the traffic light had turned green, or where you were on the morning of September 11, 2001--you know these things, well, because you just do. In On Being Certain, neurologist Robert Burton challenges the notions of how we think about what we know. He shows that the feeling of certainty we have when we "know" something comes from sources beyond our control and knowledge. In fact, certainty is a mental sensation, rather than evidence of fact. Because this "feeling of knowing" seems like confirmation of knowledge, we tend to think of it as a product of reason. But an increasing body of evidence suggests that feelings such as certainty stem from primitive areas of the brain, and are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning. The feeling of knowing happens to us; we cannot make it happen. Bringing together cutting edge neuroscience, experimental data, and fascinating anecdotes, Robert Burton explores the inconsistent and sometimes paradoxical relationship between our thoughts and what we actually know. Provocative and groundbreaking, On Being Certain, will challenge what you know (or think you know) about the mind, knowledge, and reason. The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us by Christopher Chabris,Daniel Simons 3.91 · Rating details · 13,537 ratings · 704 reviews https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7783191-the-invisible-gorilla Reading this book will make you less sure of yourself—and that’s a good thing. In The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, creators of one of psychology’s most famous experiments, use remarkable stories and counterintuitive scientific findings to demonstrate an important truth: Our minds don’t work the way we think they do. We think we see ourselves and the world as they really are, but we’re actually missing a whole lot. Again and again, we think we experience and understand the world as it is, but our thoughts are beset by everyday illusions. We write traffic laws and build criminal cases on the assumption that people will notice when something unusual happens right in front of them. We’re sure we know where we were on 9/11, falsely believing that vivid memories are seared into our minds with perfect fidelity. And as a society, we spend billions on devices to train our brains because we’re continually tempted by the lure of quick fixes and effortless self-improvement. The Invisible Gorilla reveals the myriad ways that our intuitions can deceive us, but it’s much more than a catalog of human failings. Chabris and Simons explain why we succumb to these everyday illusions and what we can do to inoculate ourselves against their effects. Ultimately, the book provides a kind of x-ray vision into our own minds, making it possible to pierce the veil of illusions that clouds our thoughts and to think clearly for perhaps the first time. Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking by M. Neil Browne, Stuart M. Keeley 3.94 · Rating details · 1,290 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/394398.Asking_the_Right_Questions The habits and attitudes associated with critical thinking are transferable to consumer, medical, legal, and general ethical choices. When our surgeon says surgery is needed, it can be life sustaining to seek answers to the critical questions encouraged in Asking the Right Questions This popular book helps bridge the gap between simply memorizing or blindly accepting information, and the greater challenge of critical analysing the things we are told and read. It gives strategies for responding to alternative points of view and will help readers develop a solid foundation for making personal choices about what to accept and what to reject. On Truth by Simon Blackburn 3.60 · Rating details · 62 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36722220-on-truth Truth is not just a recent topic of contention. Arguments about it have gone on for centuries. Why is the truth important? Who decides what the truth is? Is there such a thing as objective, eternal truth, or is truth simply a matter of perspective, of linguistic or cultural vantage point? In this concise book Simon Blackburn provides an accessible explanation of what truth is and how we might think about it. The first half of the book details several main approaches to how we should think about, and decide, what is true. These are philosophical theories of truth such as the correspondence theory, the coherence theory, deflationism, and others. He then examines how those approaches relate to truth in several contentious domains: art, ethics, reasoning, religion, and the interpretation of texts. Blackburn's overall message is that truth is often best thought of not as a product or an end point that is 'finally' achieved, but--as the American pragmatist thinkers thought of it--as an ongoing process of inquiry. The result is an accessible and tour through some of the deepest and thorniest questions philosophy has ever tackled Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman 4.16 · Rating details · 317,352 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZNhf1bAIxd&rank=1 In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. The impact of loss aversion and overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the challenges of properly framing risks at work and at home, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning the next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems work together to shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Thinking, Fast and Slow will transform the way you think about thinking. Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do by John A. Bargh (Goodreads Author) 3.97 · Rating details · 788 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35011639-before-you-know-it Dr. John Bargh, the world’s leading expert on the unconscious mind, presents a “brilliant and convincing book” (Malcolm Gladwell) cited as an outstanding read of 2017 by Business Insider and The Financial Times—giving us an entirely new understanding of the hidden mental processes that secretly govern every aspect of our behavior. For more than three decades, Dr. John Bargh has conducted revolutionary research into the unconscious mind, research featured in bestsellers like Blink and Thinking Fast and Slow. Now, in what Dr. John Gottman said was “the most important and exciting book in psychology that has been written in the past twenty years,” Dr. Bargh takes us on an entertaining and enlightening tour of the forces that affect everyday behavior while transforming our understanding of ourselves in profound ways. Dr. Bargh takes us into his labs at New York University and Yale—where he and his colleagues have discovered how the unconscious guides our behavior, goals, and motivations in areas like race relations, parenting, business, consumer behavior, and addiction. With infectious enthusiasm he reveals what science now knows about the pervasive influence of the unconscious mind in who we choose to date or vote for, what we buy, where we live, how we perform on tests and in job interviews, and much more. Because the unconscious works in ways we are completely unaware of, Before You Know It is full of surprising and entertaining revelations as well as useful tricks to help you remember items on your to-do list, to shop smarter, and to sleep better. Before You Know It is “a fascinating compendium of landmark social-psychology research” (Publishers Weekly) and an introduction to a fabulous world that exists below the surface of your awareness and yet is the key to knowing yourself and unlocking new ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4.07 · Rating details · 49,010 ratings Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. Philosophy books Epistemology by Richard Feldman 3.84 · Rating details · 182 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/387295.Epistemology Sophisticated yet accessible and easy to read, this introduction to contemporary philosophical questions about knowledge and rationality goes beyond the usual bland survey of the major current views to show that there is argument involved. Throughout, the author provides a fair and balanced blending of the standard positions on epistemology with his own carefully reasoned positions or stances into the analysis of each concept. KEY TOPICS: Epistemological Questions. The Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Modifying the Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Evidentialist Theories of Justification. Non-evidentialist Theories of Knowledge and Justification. Skepticism. Epistemology and Science. Relativism. Problems of Knowledge: A Critical Introduction to Epistemology by Michael J. Williams 3.79 · Rating details · 86 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477904.Problems_of_Knowledge "What is epistemology or 'the theory of knowledge'? Why does it matter? What makes theorizing about knowledge 'philosophical'? And why do some philosophers argue that epistemology - perhaps even philosophy itself - is dead?" " In this introduction, Michael Williams answers these questions, showing how epistemological theorizing is sensitive to a range of questions about the nature, limits, methods, and value of knowing. He pays special attention to the challenge of philosophical scepticism: does our 'knowledge' rest on brute assumptions? Does the rational outlook undermine itself?" Williams explains and criticizes all the main contemporary philosophical perspectives on human knowledge, such as foundationalism, the coherence theory, and 'naturalistic' theories. As an alternative to all of them, he defends his distinctive contextualist approach. As well as providing an accessible introduction for any reader approaching the subject for the first time, this book incorporates Williams's own ideas which will be of interest to all philosophers concerned with the theory of knowledge. Philosophy: The Basics by Nigel Warburton 3.84 · Rating details · 1,928 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31854.Philosophy Now in its fourth edition, Nigel Warburton's best-selling book gently eases the reader into the world of philosophy. Each chapter considers a key area of philosophy, explaining and exploring the basic ideas and themes. What is philosophy? Can you prove God exists? Is there an afterlife? How do we know right from wrong? Should you ever break the law? Is the world really the way you think it is? How should we define Freedom of Speech? Do you know how science works? Is your mind different from your body? Can you define art? For the fourth edition, Warburton has added new sections to several chapters, revised others and brought the further reading sections up to date. If you've ever asked what is philosophy, or whether the world is really the way you think it is, then this is the book for you. The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/14829260-the-oxford-handbook-of-thinking-and-reasoning by Keith J. Holyoak (Editor), Robert G. Morrison (Editor) 4.08 · Rating details · 12 ratings Thinking and reasoning, long the academic province of philosophy, have over the past century emerged as core topics of empirical investigation and theoretical analysis in the modern fields of cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience. Formerly seen as too complicated and amorphous to be included in early textbooks on the science of cognition, the study of thinking and reasoning has since taken off, brancing off in a distinct direction from the field from which it originated. The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is a comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning. Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading. Chapters include introductions to foundational issues and methods of study in the field, as well as treatment of specific types of thinking and reasoning and their application in a broad range of fields including business, education, law, medicine, music, and science. The volume will be of interest to scholars and students working in developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, education, and linguistics. Feminist Epistemologies (Thinking Gender) by Linda Martín Alcoff, Elizabeth Potter 4.14 · Rating details · 43 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477960.Feminist_Epistemologies Noticed this review by an evangelical: "I have found this an immensely suggestive book, collecting as it does essays from both prominent and rising figures in feminist philosophy of knowledge--albeit from about two decades ago. I am struck by how little impact feminist thought, even of this high and generally temperate quality, has had on evangelical theology, to the shame of my guild." -John The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves by Dan Ariely 3.94 · Rating details · 13,620 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13426114-the-honest-truth-about-dishonesty The New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality returns with thought-provoking work to challenge our preconceptions about dishonesty and urge us to take an honest look at ourselves. Does the chance of getting caught affect how likely we are to cheat? How do companies pave the way for dishonesty? Does collaboration make us more honest or less so? Does religion improve our honesty? Most of us think of ourselves as honest, but, in fact, we all cheat. From Washington to Wall Street, the classroom to the workplace, unethical behavior is everywhere. None of us is immune, whether it's the white lie to head off trouble or padding our expense reports. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, award-winning, bestselling author Dan Ariely turns his unique insight and innovative research to the question of dishonesty. Generally, we assume that cheating, like most other decisions, is based on a rational cost-benefit analysis. But Ariely argues, and then demonstrates, that it's actually the irrational forces that we don't take into account that often determine whether we behave ethically or not. For every Enron or political bribe, there are countless puffed résumés, hidden commissions, and knockoff purses. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Ariely shows why some things are easier to lie about; how getting caught matters less than we think; and how business practices pave the way for unethical behavior, both intentionally and unintentionally. Ariely explores how unethical behavior works in the personal, professional, and political worlds, and how it affects all of us, even as we think of ourselves as having high moral standards. But all is not lost. Ariely also identifies what keeps us honest, pointing the way for achieving higher ethics in our everyday lives. With compelling personal and academic findings, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty will change the way we see ourselves, our actions, and others. The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark by Carl Sagan, Ann Druyan (Goodreads Author) 4.27 · Rating details · 59,893 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17349.The_Demon_Haunted_World How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience and the testable hypotheses of science? Pulitzer Prize-winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions. Casting a wide net through history and culture, Sagan examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies of the past as witchcraft, faith healing, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today's so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning with stories of alien abduction, channeling past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect. As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms. What Is the Name of This Book? by Raymond M. Smullyan 4.24 · Rating details · 757 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/493576.What_Is_the_Name_of_This_Book_ If you're intrigued by puzzles and paradoxes, these 200 mind-bending logic puzzles, riddles, and diversions will thrill you with challenges to your powers of reason and common sense. Raymond M. Smullyan — a celebrated mathematician, logician, magician, and author — presents a logical labyrinth of more than 200 increasingly complex problems. The puzzles delve into Gödel’s undecidability theorem and other examples of the deepest paradoxes of logic and set theory. Detailed solutions follow each puzzle The Art of Logic in an Illogical World by Eugenia Cheng 3.55 · Rating details · 740 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38400400-the-art-of-logic-in-an-illogical-world How both logical and emotional reasoning can help us live better in our post-truth world In a world where fake news stories change election outcomes, has rationality become futile? In The Art of Logic in an Illogical World, Eugenia Cheng throws a lifeline to readers drowning in the illogic of contemporary life. Cheng is a mathematician, so she knows how to make an airtight argument. But even for her, logic sometimes falls prey to emotion, which is why she still fears flying and eats more cookies than she should. If a mathematician can't be logical, what are we to do? In this book, Cheng reveals the inner workings and limitations of logic, and explains why alogic--for example, emotion--is vital to how we think and communicate. Cheng shows us how to use logic and alogic together to navigate a world awash in bigotry, mansplaining, and manipulative memes. Insightful, useful, and funny, this essential book is for anyone who wants to think more clearly. How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age by Theodore Schick Jr. Lewis Vaughn, Martin Gardner (Foreword) 4.00 · Rating details · 530 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41756.How_to_Think_about_Weird_Things This text serves well as a supplemental text in:
critical thinking
logic
introduction to philosophy
philosophy of science
epistemology
metaphysics
introduction to psychology
anomalistic psychology
perception and cognition
as well as any introductory science course. It has been used in all of the courses mentioned above as well as introductory biology, introductory physics, and introductory chemistry courses. It could also serve as a main text for courses in evaluation of the paranormal, philosophical implications of the paranormal, occult beliefs, and pseudoscience. Popular Statistics Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data by Charles Wheelan 3.94 · Rating details · 10,367 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't by Nate Silver 3.98 · Rating details · 43,804 ratings · 3,049 reviews https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13588394-the-signal-and-the-noise One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller "Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks by Will Kurt 4.20 · Rating details · 126 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41392893-bayesian-statistics-the-fun-way Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:
How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them
Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data. Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian (Goodreads Author), Tom Griffiths (Goodreads Author) 4.15 · Rating details · 19,580 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by A fascinating exploration of how insights from computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind All our lives are constrained by limited space and time, limits that give rise to a particular set of problems. What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of new activities and familiar favorites is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandaries, but they are not: computers, too, face the same constraints, so computer scientists have been grappling with their version of such issues for decades. And the solutions they've found have much to teach us. In a dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths show how the algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living. The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World by David Deutsch 4.12 · Rating details · 5,026 ratings https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10483171-the-beginning-of-infinity The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World In this book David Deutsch argue that all progress, both theoretical and practical, has resulted from a single human activity: the quest for what I call good explanations. Though this quest is uniquely human, its effectiveness is also a fundamental fact about reality at the most impersonal cosmic level – namely that it conforms to universal laws of nature that are indeed good explanations. This simple relationship between the cosmic and the human is a hint of a central role of people in the cosmic scheme of things.
While the Royals farm system is not the best due to unsuccessful drafting in the middle of the decade, they made it a point to obtain every college pitcher under the sun starting in 2018. The first to be drafted was Brady Singer with the 18th overall pick, and he was (very arguably) the best pitching prospect in the organization. And he would be the first to appear on the Royals, starting just the second game of the season--a game the Royals would eventually win. He would later take a no-hitter deep into the 8th inning in September, beginning a strong finish to his season. Due to injuries, COVID, and the Royals trying to be conservative with their prospect use, Singer led the team in games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, and most other good stats excluding Brad Keller. Kris Bubic (pronounced "boob itch") joined the team just a few days later. His lousy 1-6 record is more of an example of pitcher wins/losses being bad than anything; Bubic had a respectable rookie season that had a 4.32 ERA in 10 starts. Why bring this up? Well, Bubic hadn't even pitched above high-A ball before this season, so the fact that he was called up at all, especially within the first week of the season, shows where the team was at with its starting rotation this year. Josh Staumont pitched a bit in 2019 to mild success, but this year was when he really turned heads, effortlessly and consistently throwing around 100 MPH. With two powerful pitches fueled by a fabulous manbun, he dazzled the Cubs announcers as he struck out the heart of the Cubs lineup. His legend would become widespread after being on the losing end of one of the worst called balls in the history of baseball, analyzed by Jomboy who was just as starstruck as those Cubs announcers.
Fine Additions
After years of signing hit-or-miss (mostly miss) players to 1-year deals, the Royals would do... the exact same thing 2020. The only notable free agent signings they would make were third baseman Maikel Franco (technically in his second year of arbitration), relief pitcher and KC native Trevor Rosenthal, and relief pitcher plus former Championship Royals closer Greg Holland. The three of them would help define the Royals in 2020. Franco's numbers don't stand out amazingly well on paper, hitting .278 with 8 home runs and a mediocre on-base percentage, but most people who watched our regular season games would agree with Fangraphs that he was the most clutch hitter on the team, leading it in RBIs. Rosenthal was beyond bad in 2019, having an ERA that nearly equaled his innings pitched. Soaked in a phoenix's ashes, he was so good in 2020 that he was considered one of the best relievers on the market, and was sent to the playoff-bound Padres for a pretty solid return. Greg Holland, the anchor of the legendary HDH combo in the Royals' crowning years, also reinvented himself in 2020. The shortened season thinned returns on sold players, so Holland remained in KC beyond the trade deadline, going on to replace Rosenthal as the team's closer with nearly as many saves, boasting a 1.91 ERA in 28 innings. While Franco was non-tendered due to a high salary demand and Rosenthal currently remaining unsigned, Holland has already returned to the Royals for 2021, signing a 1-year deal.
Padre Amigos
The Royals would make two trades with the Padres in 2020, both yielding exciting returns for both teams. In the off-season, the Royals traded reliever Tim Hill and his weird ass submarine delivery for outfielder Franchy Cordero. Although he would miss most of the season with a leg injury, it's hard not to be excited for the effortless power he contains. At the trade deadline, the Padres acquired the prized Trevor Rosenthal, sending Edward Olivares in return. Olivares immediately became a fan favorite on /KCRoyals, hitting .387 in his first week on the team and showing that he is compatible with Royals sacred, demonic base hit magic. For a team lacking in young hitters, these were great returns and defined a newfound friendship with the west coast dads.
Salvinator 2: Splashment Day
Salvador Perez is the most beloved player on the Royals for reasons that are too numerous to fit into one Reddit post. His numbers started to go downhill a few years ago, and 2019 had him sit on a bench for the entire year while recovering from Tommy John. But Salvy is no stranger to working hard, and his effort to make up for lost time would not go unnoticed. In this shortened season, he hit 11 home runs and batted .333, the highest in his career and his first time hitting over .300 since 2012. His OPS was .986, just shy of the top 10 in MLB but by far the highest of his career. This says nothing about his defense, which was great as ever. You might ask, why wasn't he considered for MVP if he was so good this year? Because this was done in less than 40 games. A baffling condition that built up fluid one of his eyes and blurred his vision kept him from playing more than 37 games this season. This still didn't stop him from leading the team in WAR, nearly matching his own totals in both 2018 and 2019. Salvy is known to go on streaks throughout normal seasons, but maybe a long break is what he needed to re-solidify himself as one of baseball's top catchers.
Mc Mc BOOM
Ryan McBroom is a handsome man and hit three pinch-hit home runs for some reason. Within one month, no less! It's actually tied for the franchise record. We're all very proud of him. Here they are in their glory: 1(Aug 11)2 (Aug 26)3 (Aug 29)
And the rest
Some miscellaneous bits to explain a bit more of the season; the Royals finished with a 26-34 record, which isn't ideal if you think of winning percentage converting it to about 70-92, but hey, it's an improvement over back-to-back 103+-loss seasons. Mike Matheny was crafty with his lineups and bullpen usage and ended up winning a lot of fans over despite the initial outrage of signing him. Adalberto Mondesi was really bad for a large portion of the season, going into September with a .186 average. Then he stopped being really bad and decided to be really good instead, hitting .356 for the final month. Brad Keller got corona'd and missed a couple of starts at the start of the season, then pitched a 2.47 ERA in nine starts, including a complete game shutout that was saved by our boy Oli. Holland and Staumont combined with Jesse Hahn and Kyle Zimmer for a 1.63 ERA over 94.1 innings in the pen. Ian Kennedy and Matt Harvey were on the team. Second baseman Nicky Lopez was nominated for a Gold Glove. There's a promotion for free Pepsi when Whit Merrifield gets two hits in a game, which he does quite often, so this is a call out to Whit to please change your walk-up music to Pepsiman.
4Ever Gordo
2005 was the worst season in Royals history, where they would lose 106 games. But this is where the future began; with the second overall pick, the Royals drafted Nebraska-native Alex Gordon. Being a third baseman, he was immediately imagined to be the second coming of George Brett and define a new generation of the Kansas City Royals. Eventually, he would, but not by following the blueprint. Gordo failed, giving up on the third base position entirely after his fourth season. But by failing, he succeeded, forging a new path and setting his throne elsewhere. Gordo would stand guard in left field instead, letting nothing get away from him. The outstanding was routine and ordinary for him. And no one could get past him. You can argue that left field isn't that sexy of a position, meaning that the best defensive left fielder in history is a shallow achievement. You can argue that eight Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves aren't that special. You can argue that, out of thousands of defensive gems, his most legendary, career-defining moment, the most legendary moment in franchise history, the moment that brought Kansas City to its feet in uproarious applause, is instead a home run, a game-tying home run in the last chances of a World Series game on home soil, with its author iconically posed over first base. What you can't argue is that Alex Gordon defined the Royals of the modern day, and saying his career is worth celebrating would be an understatement. After fourteen seasons, the guardian of Kauffman's left field has retired. Gordo was known for having the back of his jersey splatted with pine tar after a full swing of his bat. To honor him, the players wore jerseys slathered with pine tar over the letters in his final game. In other parts of the league, old friends did the same. Even a wild Moose had a pine tar-y jersey on that day, which is pretty wild I would say. There will be another left fielder for the Royals, but there will never be another number 4 for the Royals. 4Ever Royal.
Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #13: Grant Balfour
Number 13. For those of you who aren't aware, this is a series about the players that qualify for the Hall of Fame ballot that the Selection Committee chose to leave off, for whatever reason. Here, we take a look at who got the short end of the stick. You may catch up on the other 12 I've already done at the bottom. Onto the main course.
Grant Balfour
Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 12 Career bWAR (12 years): 9.2 Stats: 30-23, 84 SV, 3.49 ERA, 119 ERA+, 534 G, 203 GF, 539.2 IP, 571 K, 252 BB, 1.219 WHIP League Leading Stats: None Awards: All-Star (2013) Teams Played For: Twins (2001, 2003-04), Brewers (2007), Devil Rays/Rays (2007-10, 2014-15), Athletics (2011-13) Grant Balfour is probably the worst name for a pitcher I've ever seen. You can certainly make up worse names, like Walkstonsofbatters McAllowswaytoomanyhomers, but within the confines of realistic names, I don't think there's a worse one. He is literally named after the thing he is coached not to do. It's like an offensive lineman being named Dee Venz Knoblauch. Like, I can't address you without mentioning one of the worst things you could do here. And yet, even with a name like that, Walk Batters played in the MLB long enough to qualify for the Hall of Fame ballot. And if I'm being honest, he wasn't half bad. As great as it would've been to see a relief pitcher named Grant Balfour on the Hall of Fame ballot, I don't think he deserved that honor. Maybe that explains why he was always so angry. Balfour was born in 1977 in Sydney, Australia. Okay, now it makes sense. The Aussies probably got baseball backwards and thought walks were a good thing for pitchers to do. Anyway, at 19, Balfour was signed as an international free agent by the Minnesota Twins. After slowly but surely making progress in the minor league system, going from the Rookie Leagues to double-A in four short years, Pitch Fourballs switched starting pitcher to closer in the midst of some struggles in high-A. And it worked like a charm. From a 4.25 ERA in 10 high-A starts in 2000 to a 1.04 ERA in 35 double-A appearances in 2001. Even got some MLB pitching in there after a depleted Minnesota team called him up at the end of July. Both his appearances were against the Seattle Mariners, who were kinda good in 2001. His first time stepping onto a Major League field took place on July 26, 2001. Balfour was 23 years old, facing a team that had already won 70 games, and had never pitched in the Majors before. Still, the first batter he faced, Mike Cameron, struck out. The next batter, Al Martin, was Granted Ball four, marking the first time someone had performed their full name in a game. At least, I think so. Don't remember Home Run Baker ever bringing an oven into the stands. Anyway, following that game, in Balfour's next appearance he allowed home runs to both Ichiro and Bret Boone, and then returned to the minors. He'd linger there for the next two years. Every time it seemed like he was ready in triple-A, something would knock him down again. That is, until July of 2003, when the Twins moved a Rule 5 draft pick from a couple years prior up from the bullpen to the starting rotation. They needed another reliever, and so they gave Grant a call. Balfour, who'd been doing pretty well as a Rochester Red Wing, was a Major Leaguer once again. And this time, he wasn't letting that go lightly. After four appearances and 3 runs in 8.1 innings pitched, Balfour got sent back to the minors in favor of James Baldwin. After Baldwin sucked, and that Rule 5 pick named Johan Santana turned out okay, Take Yourbase came back in August, and started his time back right with 8 consecutive scoreless innings, plus his first career win. Manager Ron Gardenhire liked what he saw, and tapped Sony Walkman to start September 3rd against the Anaheim Angels. It did not go well, with Balfour issuing five of his last name in just 2.2 innings, not to mention giving up a home run to a rarely seen creature named Shawn Wooten. Back to the bullpen he went, finishing the year with 26 innings pitched, and 30 strikeouts to show for it. He also had a 4.15 ERA and 14 walks to his name, so there was room for improvement. 2004 would hopefully bring that around. Or he could also allow 7 earned runs in his first 2.2 innings of the year. Fourth Pitchoutside apparently figured out that that was a bad thing to do, because he only allowed 6 over the next 3 months of mop up duty. Even struck out 36 in the 30.1 innings he pitched over that time plus earning 5 decisions, 4 of which were wins. Then a DL stint came, he came back, and allowed 6 runs in 6 innings of September baseball. The Twins still made the playoffs, and he pitched 2 innings of perfect baseball, but he was playing for Minnesota, and they were matched up against the Yankees, so it's not like it mattered. After that year ended on the wrong foot, he intended to start afresh in 2005. That was before elbow ligament reconstruction surgery followed a spring training injury, and completely wiped out any hope of Balfour doing that. By this point, the Twins, who finished the season 83-79 in lieu of Base Onballs getting injured, had plenty of young arms coming into the fold and doing very well. Names like Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Jesse Crain were all holding their own, and all were below the age of 25 at season's end. They also had other capable pitchers in the bullpen, like Juan Rincon, Matt Guerrier, J.C. Romero, and a proven closer in Joe Nathan. Balfour would turn 27 that winter, was coming back from a serious injury, and had never finished a season with an ERA below 4, something everyone previously mentioned who was not the 21-year-old Liriano had done. All of that to say, at the end of 2005, the Twins released Grant Balfour from his contract. I guess you could say, they, uh, let him walk. HaHAAAaaaa. A minor league offer from the Cincinnati Reds in January meant O.B.P. Helper spent 2006 bouncing around their system, never quite putting it all together before getting selected off waiver by Milwaukee in October. That was apparently what it took. Balfour started the next season in double-A, and over the next three-and-a-half months, would pitch in 32 minor league games, 43.1 innings, and two different leagues. At the end of it, his ERA was 1.87, he had struck out 68, and he was getting called up to the Brewers. Balfour wasn't done, and he would show up this time. He certainly did, appearing in three games right off the bat, and allowing 6 runs in 2.2 innings. An improvement over his start to 2004, but also a showing that resulted in 2 losses. Only a couple days after his last outing where he faced 4 batters in the 12th inning without recording an out, Balfour was designated for assignment, and traded to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Over the rest of the season, he'd win another decision and not lose any more, which is nice, but he'd have a 6.14 ERA and the Devil Rays would lose 96 games, which is not. After a lackluster spring training effort meant he started the year in the minors, at this point, there was no reason to expect anything. Perhaps Guy Whopitchespoorly could get one, maybe two more years of baseball, but that was it. At least, that's what everyone but Balfour could expect, because he wouldn't stay in the minors for long. After only 15 games in AA, B.B. Surrendered got called back up to the newly-renamed Tampa Bay Rays. Why, you may ask, did the team call up Balfour, a 30-year-old reliever whose season prior was horrendous? Maybe because in those 15 games (and 8 saves), he pitched 23.2 innings, and through them all, allowed only a single run. Oh, and he had 39 strikeouts. Yeah, that'll be a call-up from me. On May 31st, Another Wideone's first MLB appearance of 2008 would be to get the last out of a game against the White Sox's Brian Anderson. It took him two pitches to induce a flyout, and record his first career MLB Save. And that was just the beginning. Over the next four months, Grant Balfour would become the best relief pitcher on the Rays. In 58.1 innings of work, he'd only allow 10 runs for a 1.52 ERA, strike out 82 batters, and maintain a WHIP of 0.891. He finished the year as the fourth most valuable pitcher on the team by bWAR, rotation or bullpen. He also helped carry his team to a playoff berth, where they faced the White Sox in the Division Series. Balfour contributed 3.1 innings of scoreless ball, including the final two innings of the decisive Game 4 to clinch it for Tampa Bay. His ALCS was less exemplary, particularly the time he allowed 4 runs in 0.2 innings that led to his team losing a game they'd led 7-0 in the seventh inning. Thanks to the rest of Balfour's team, the Rays still advanced past the Red Sox in 7 to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. Just Abitoutside did his best, only allowing one run in the three games he pitched, but the good fortune Tampa Bay had sown with the baseball gods dried up before they could close it out and win that elusive piece of metal. Still, Balfour had shown he was far from done pitching great baseball. The Rays rewarded Ball Numerocuatro for his excellent season by keeping him around for two years. He'd do okay, not the best bullpen arm but nowhere near the worst. 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 122.2 innings. Not bad at all, even good enough for a 113 ERA+. 3.28 FIP, too. Probably didn't help that he walked 50 people and only saved 4 games, but you can't win em all. Balfour's last three pitching appearances for the Rays were all scoreless outings in the ALDS, a series they'd go on to lose. Afterwards, because they're the Rays, they decided not to bring him back, and so Opposite Ofastrikeout became a free agent for the first time in four years. That offseason, after being named the 42nd best free agent available by MLB Trade Rumors, Grant Balfour signed a 2-year, $8 million contract with the Oakland Athletics. I can imagine Peter Brandt telling Billy Beane, "the thing people don't like about him is his name. He's a great pitcher, but his name sounds like 'ball four,' so he'll be cheap." Walk Joke would spend his first season in Oakland as a setup man for closer Andrew Bailey, and he'd perform that job well, notching a career high 26 holds in 2011. Even after Brian Fuentes took over after Bailey got injured, Balfour didn't waver, finishing the year with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP, the best WHIP he'd had since that magical 2008 run. Figuring that still wasn't good enough, and after a nice spring training, Somethingabout Badpitches found himself in the A's closer spot at the beginning of 2012. It was a spot he wouldn't relinquish for... about a month. A couple bad outings left the spot open for Ryan Cook, but once he also began to struggle in mid-August, Balfour once again took over, and would hold the job for the rest of that season and the next once his option was picked up. Over that time, Balfour at one point had saved 44 games in a row, an Athletics franchise record. In a franchise whose history included both Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersley closing games, the record for most consecutive non-blown saves belongs to a guy whose name means "walk a dude." Baseball, man. That streak even got Balfour an All-Star nod after an injury was sustained by his teammate Bartolo Colon, aka "Portly Pulchritudinous." All told, in his three years in Oakland, Grant Balfour went 9-7, sustained a 2.53 ERA and 1.043 WHIP, struck out 203 hitters, saved 64 games, and gathered 5.8 bWAR. Pretty nice if I do say so. Nice enough that he was out of their price range, and so back he went to the land of the free agents. After a snafu with the Orioles wound up with a 2-year $15 million contract being overturned due to a poor physical, his old friends the Tampa Bay Rays swooped in and gave him 2 years and $12 million instead. Balfour showed that that physical might have been more right than he wanted to let on, as the 36-year-old put up a 4.91 ERA and a 1.444 WHIP, both of which were his worst stats since the year he played for the Brewers. He lost the closer job after just 12 saves, and never regained it, getting released less than a month into the second year of his contract. After an attempted comeback when the Rays offered him a second-chance minor league deal, Theschtick Isgettingold got released again, and officially retired on April 29, 2016. And on that day, the list of players whose names could actually be performed in the game was reduced to zero. Well, except for Brandon Belt. Just wear a logo on your belt and bam. Balfour's most interesting aspect, at least to me, will always be his name. Some others might point his Athletics' consecutive save record, which is valid. Some others might point to his penchant for pitching while enraged, which would regularly get him into altercations with batters he faced. That's also valid. But I am still fascinated by the fact that someone whose name is literally Grant Ball Four became a pitcher in the MLB and stayed there for long enough to qualify for the Hall of Fame ballot. I suppose the baseball gods have a fickle sense of humor. I am disappointed he is not on simply based on his name alone, but I understand why. Because at the end of the day, he just didn't deserve to be there. Sorry Thisjoke Isdead. Balfour would visit the Hall in an Oakland A's cap for his 64 saves, 2.53 ERA, and 203 strikeouts with the franchise. How would he get inside, you ask? Why, as his name would suggest, he'd walk. Oh that was awful. These baseball players are less important than anybody on the ballot but you can read about them if you want #1: Randy Choate #2: Kevin Gregg #3: Dan Uggla #4: Josh Hamilton #5: Delmon Young #6: Willie Bloomquist #7: Grady Sizemore #8: Kevin Correia #9: David DeJesus #10: Rafael Betancourt #11: Clint Barmes #12: Adam LaRoche
Baseball Stats 101. Each of the following links will bring you to a list of formulas and statistics that are commonly used and often forgotten during the important calculation time. A review of the formulas prior to attendance at any game can refresh your memory giving you back the ability to adjust the statistics of any player after his last pitch, last hit or stolen base. Statistics A glossary for batting stats on Baseball-Reference.com. The player, team and league statlines are now dramatically different than when the site first launched, so a comprehensive list of the stats would take far longer and would likely be much less useful than previously. Saber explained Tigers Stories The result is a plethora of stats that can befuddle casual baseball fans. We will take a deep dive into the more advanced stats later in the week, but for now we The next part of understanding baseball stats are the three main batting stats: batting average (BA, or AVG above), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging (SLG). 2020 KBO Stats. 2020 CPBL Stats. 2020 Japan Central League Stats. 2020 Japan Pacific League Stats. Sign up for the Baseball Stathead newsletter! A daily recap of top performers, scores and statistical highlights, straight to your inbox! Site News. Keep up with the latest site news with our This Month in Sports Reference newsletter Part of being a baseball fan these days is having at least a passing familiarity with advanced statistics -- i.e., the metrics that go beyond the usual fare of RBI, batting average, ERA, fielding The official source for sortable MLB player and team stats, including customizable splits and filters. Batting Average; Home Runs; RBIs; Runs Scored; Stolen Bases; For Pitchers: Wins; ERA; WHIP; Strikeouts; Saves; In this section, you will find explanations of baseball's standard stats. Often seen A site to help improve the games of baseball and softball for players, coaches, and parents . Skip to content. Home; About Hitmorelinedrives; LineDriveNation Membership; Tag Archives: batting practice. Hitting is Contagious Explained?? Posted on October 3, 2012 by hitmorelinedrives. In a previous post I gave my theory on hitting being contagious. How visualizing success can help a hitter
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