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Where to sell my games/consoles?

I have a bunch of games and several consoles (modded ps2, modded 360,2 non-modded 360s, dc, regular ps2, etc.) I would like to sell, but I'm trying to avoid ebay fees as they are absurdly outrageous.
9% for non buy it now, 15% for buy it now. Then a listing fee, then another 2.9% paypal fees, then a .30 paypal fee, THEN the headache of dealing with stupids that expect overnight shipping on $5 orders for free.
I've tried gameswap and craigslist. I've tried cheap ass gamer, but you have to be a member for 30 days before you can sell, and I need all this stuff gone by the first of Oct.
Any recommendations would be >greatly< appreciated.
submitted by gamesterx23 to AskReddit [link] [comments]

I want to sell my Wii U console + game pad + LoZ video game but don’t know where to start.

I don’t have the box that came we the console, but can I use any other box? I need tips on how to sell it.
submitted by mac9779 to gaming [link] [comments]

Where should I sell my console games to get the most out of them?

I wanna get rid of my console games. I just don't know where to sell them to get the most out of them. I don't want to sell them at Gamestop because they'll end up giving nothing really for them.
submitted by Isadeaf to pcmasterrace [link] [comments]

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.

this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow.
im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth.
TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us.
Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something:
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Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something

1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.

So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀.
THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below.
Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/
BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up?
Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something).
The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores.
In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen.
We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone.
Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights.
GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high.
Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences.
Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen.
So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard.

The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach:
9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better.
from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket!
I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10.
Bears are betting against:
Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion
Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april
u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale
Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo
Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed
Norweigan sovereign wealth fund
Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit
All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears
Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME.

Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.

2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.

Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund.
Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP.
This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information.
The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex:
Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million.
Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million
Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million
Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million
% of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020
% of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th.
Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is.
The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%.
Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now.
This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated
Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀:
Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask?
Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021:
This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th
So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows.
These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared.
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Now for the data for this week:

Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop
SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20.
Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount.
Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌.
🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta.
You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother.
Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions
Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close:

This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls.
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This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone.
These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money.
Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands).
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We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs.
Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options.
Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others.
Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently.
Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2
Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000.
Overstock went from ~$21 to $123
Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18
Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates.
$1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 .
This shit can happen. Hold on.
GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now.

This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman
Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price.
This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned.
Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain.
For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/
IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD
Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared.
The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are.
Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets.
Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!**
Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES
Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement.
Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago
There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think?
Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
submitted by TitusSupremus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Cut my salary in half? Kiss your business goodbye.

The cast: (Names changed for anonymity)
Me - your storyteller of the moment.
Chad - Hiring CTO.
Richard - CEO, brother of Chad.
Big Bro - Engineer coworker
Eddie - IT and Desktop support guy.
This takes place near the very beginning of my software engineering career, back in '05 or '06. I'd just been let go from my previous place of employment due to be being compliant with directives I'd been given (although not maliciously, so that story wouldn't be appropriate here, sadly), and thus working myself out of a job. I was a young college dropout from a technical college that hadn't been federally accredited yet, and thus all my student loans were from banks and loan companies instead of from Uncle Sam, and debts were due. I was also making payments on my very first car, even though it was a beater that the prior owners had already nearly driven into the ground (4 years old and nearly 200k miles on it when I bought it), and of course, rent and utitlities. The job I'd just been let go from already had me working paycheck to paycheck as they paid far under average rate, but I was still new professional so I couldn't be very choosy. I was living in Los Angeles county, so the cost of living was so bad, I was having to choose which bills were going to be late on a monthly basis. Specifically, I was living in a town called San Pedro, a small town tucked fairly out of the way.
After blasting my resume to all the job boards, I get a call from a startup who seems interested in my resume and wants me to come in for a face-to-face interview (skipping the call-screen entirely). In my desperation, I agree. I'm given an address, which is all the way up in Woodland Hills. I check the internet... 55 minute drive so long as there's no traffic. With traffic it looks like the commute will be more like an hour and forty-five minutes... each way. I'm desperate though, and literally nobody else has reached out to me about my resume or responded to my applications, so I go to the interview. I arrive to an mostly empty office complex. Maybe 6 or 7 other cars in a parking lot capable of holding at least 50. I go into the building mentioned in the address, and call the phone number I was given to let them know I've arrived. Enter Chad. Chad comes to meet me, and seems excited that I've come! He escorts me through the building to an office. Mind you, as far as I can see, we're the only two humans in the building. He gives me the pitch for the company, tells me he built the software being sold, but it's not scalable, and needs someone who can rewrite it. After we go through the whole interview song and dance, he offers me the job on the spot. The pay is marginally higher than the last gig, so I figure gas would be covered for the commute. I agree, and we shake hands, as I'm going to be starting the next Monday.
Red flags start appearing from the very first minute I arrive on monday. First, I'm given a tour, which consists of the 14x14 foot office I'm going to be sharing with Chad, as well as another engineer who's going to be starting the following monday. I'm not a fan of having someone able to look over my shoulder, it makes me nervous. I ask why each engineer's desk has two computers. "Because the one you will be writing code on doesn't have internet access, for security purposes." (Note: this was pure paranoia. There was nothing about this software that required such tight security, we weren't doing any gov't contracts or anything of the sort.) Then, I'm escorted clear across the building, to meet with the CEO (Richard), the IT guy (Eddie), and the sales/support team. I'm told that half of the team is supporting the existing version of the application, 2 people are selling the existing version to new clients (or trying to), and one person is explicitly tasked with selling the new version. The one I haven't even started on yet. I'm still young and dumb at this point, but even I know this means the salesperson is probably giving out a date when the customer should expect their purchase to be filled. "It's a good thing you started when we did, we've been telling customers it'll be ready in June." Did I mention all this was happening in February? Apparently I've agreed to rewrite, test, and package an entire application I've never seen before in approximately four months. So, tour being done, I sit down and get to work. After jumping through a bunch of hoops of getting the software I prefer downloaded onto the actual work machine, as well as the code, I set about reviewing code so horrific I've not seen its like since, and there isn't a single comment in the entire thing. Before I can ask a single question of the CTO however, he tells me he's headed to downtown LA to scalp his tickets to the Lakers game, and that he'll see me tomorrow. So... now I'm alone in the office with this abomination, a machine that's been hamstrung to heck and back, and the only thing I've got to console me is the fact that at least I'm employed again.
Fast-forward a week, I've documented the bulk of the code (because there wasn't any), and the boss and I do not get along. He's mad because I've not written any substantial code, and I'm frustrated because I'm trying to understand a lot of what specific code is trying to do and he's routinely leaving around noon to go sell his tickets for Laker's games, or just not in the office because he's chatting with someone else. When he is in the office, I show him my documentation, and try to get him to verify it or describe the purpose of code where all I can say is "Wat?" By the end of the week, I've covered about 30% of the project in a wiki-like document, and I've taken to leaving after sunset so I can a) get more done, b) have a shorter commute, and c) drive when my car isn't an oven (the ac didn't work). I've barely managed to convince the CTO that what I'm doing is necessary so the engineer starting the next monday doesn't have to do anywhere near the same crap I've got, which would make us a more efficient team.
Monday arrives, and in comes Big Bro. I call him this because he was a much more experienced engineer than I was. We spend the first day with him getting set up, then us reviewing what I've documented. He manages to answer some questions the CTO never did, just because he is that much better, and I start to feel more confident. Over the next weeks, Big Bro took me under his wing as an engineer teaching me best practices, standards, and where my plans were good and where they could be better. If it hadn't been for him, I'd have gone insane! I end up joining him outside for smoke breaks even though I don't smoke, just so I can get a breath of non-office air. He and I discuss the project, and we also make friends with Eddie, who makes us laugh by telling us horror stories about the CTO and CEO (apparently he was a school *friend* of theirs and basically worked with them because they paid him to do something he felt was super easy).
April rolls around. I've got a special occasion I need the day off for, which happens to be a Wednesday that year. I'd advised him when I first started and he'd been cool with it. I remind him on April 2nd (since I had an irrational fear of policy decisions being made on April Fool's Day), and he loses it. He goes off on a rant, and straight up informs me that he regrets hiring me, claiming I didn't have the skills I told him I did, and wasn't worth what I was being paid. We're definitely not half-way done (more like one third), and it's already been decided that June is a lost cause and that we're shooting for August now. That habit I started before, of leaving after the sun went down? Yeah, that never stopped. I was arriving at 9am every day, and leaving around 10pm every night, trying my best. Big bro was the same, and Eddie would stay late with us just because we liked hanging out together. So, it should be understandable that I was very close to losing it right back at him. In a strained, yet diplomatic voice, I told him that if he put in the same amount of work to help us as we put in to rewrite *his* code, we'd probably be a lot closer to done than we were, especially given the twelve hour days. He was not a fan of that, and switched to straight up yelling, blaming us for the lost sales and refunds due to the delays, and that the only way he'd get off our backs was by getting the project done. This entire time Big Bro is just sitting there, and says nothing to back me up. Chad then left the office for a bit, and I just declared I was taking my lunch and would be back in an hour. I felt frustrated by Chad and betrayed by Big Bro, who I felt (rightly or not) should have had my back since we were in the same boat.
When we were both back in the office, he apologized for yelling and told me that since he agreed when I was hired I could have my day off. Cool. I apologized too, although not for anything specific. I just didn't want to talk to him anymore and figured that was the fastest way to end the conversation.
Fast forward to June, and the opportunity for Malicious Compliance. Over the last two months, Chad has been getting worse and worse. He's yelling nearly every day (and still leaving early too). Big Bro and Eddie are also feeling the pain, nobody is safe from his ego. The smoke breaks and afternoon/evening portion of our day are when we're most productive, as nobody can focus until Chad leaves. The first monday in June rolls around and Chad invites me to go on a walk outside for a 1-on-1 meeting. I figured I'm being fired (at this point we've had to refactor the rewrite almost entirely due to missing a critical chunk of functionality, and we're still only 60% done. August release is looking less and less sure). Chad informs me that he's hired a 3rd engineer, but in order to stay in the budget to pay him, he's cutting my salary in half. I stop on the spot and just give him a blank look.
"Are you serious?" I ask. "I'm barely able to pay for my bills and the gas required to commute here as it is. If you cut my salary at all, I won't be able to afford to live." At this point the idea of cutting my productivity to help ramp up a new engineer so he can help us meet the deadline doesn't even occur to me, although in hindsight that would have also been a pretty major issue.
Chad brushes me off. "That's not my problem. The fact that you missed one deadline and look like you're gonna miss another is. If you've got a problem with that, you're more than welcome to go find another job. The new guy starts in two weeks." And with that he walks inside. I'd just been told that I had two weeks left of job at my current salary. Cool. So that day I do something I hadn't done since I first started. I left while the sun was still up. (Specifically, I left at 5pm). I drive my oven-car (no working Air Conditioning in a car that had been left in the sun all day in Woodland Hills had me feeling like a baked potato) through traffic (hour and a half-commute home through LA heat), and updated my resume before reactivating my accounts on all the job sites. I'm contacted the next day by a potential new employer, and I get an interview scheduled. I decide to tell Big Bro about the new opportunity, and he hits me with news that lets me know just how small a world we live in.
Me: "Hey, Big Bro, just fyi I've started looking for a new job. I've already got an interview lined up."
Big Bro: "Really? Where?"
Me: "Over at "
Big Bro: "Wow! That's where I worked before I came here! That place is pretty awesome, and I left there on pretty good terms. I know the CTO there, go ahead and use me as a reference!"
Me, skeptical: "Really? Okay...."
Turns out Big Bro was true to his word, and the CTO and I even talked about Big Bro during the interview. Apparently they'd already talked about me, and Big Bro had been the ultimate hype man, confirming everything I said about why I was looking for a new job and everything. All goes well, and I'm electronically signing an offer-letter that Friday afternoon (Chad had already left for the day, so there was nobody to look over my shoulder as I used the work computer that *had* internet access to get this done). At the new Job, the commute is cut by more than half, and comes with a pretty significant raise. I tell Big Bro and Eddie on the last smoke break (I still don't smoke) that I'm done, and I've found something new. Oddly enough, they both smile and just wish me luck. "No hard feelings, hope we stay in touch!" Odd, but I'd stopped really caring about anything related to that job, so I paid it no mind. I went back inside, packed up my stuff into my backpack, and walked to the CEO's office.
Me: "Hey Richard, got a minute?"
Richard: "Hey OP, what's up?"
Me: "Just wanted to let you know I found a new job, so I'm moving on."
Richard: "Really, why? We need you!"
Me: "You guys decided it was cool to cut my salary to a point where I couldn't afford to live. Chad said if I didn't like it, I should look for something new, so I did."
Richard, looking defeated: "Well, when's your last day?"
Me: "Today."
Richard, now pissed: "We need you here to train the new guy who starts soon!"
Me: "Hey, I had to train myself and to an extent, Big Bro when he first started. The new guy should be able to as well."
And with that, I left for greener pastures.
The unexpectedly *huge* fallout:
Four months later, Big Bro texts me to ask me how things are going. I tell him things are great, and we schedule a lunchtime call because apparently things have gone sideways in a huge way.
Part 1) Apparently Chad came in on Monday almost violently angry, and demands Eddie re-image my work machine first thing in the morning, which erases everything I'd left on there.Big Bro comes in an hour later, and he and Chad discuss the new timeline for the project. Somewhere in there apparently Big Bro asks Chad to log into the admin account on my old work machine so he can pull the documents I'd accumulated about the planned architecture, the existing code, meeting notes, etc. Chad answers by apparently punching a hole in the wall, and leaving for the day (probably to go to the hospital to deal with his hand), at 10:30 in the morning. Big Bro then spends the rest of that week ostensibly working on recreating the documentation from scratch.
Part 2) When I asked how the new guy handled the new documentation, Big Bro laughed and told me there never was any documentation. Apparently he and Eddie had become really good friends in the months we worked there, to the point where they'd become roommates about a month before I left. More than that though, they'd decided to start a freelance/consulting business together and only had to decide on when to make that their full time jobs. Neither of them liked Chad much, and wanted to make their departure hurt as much as possible. So, they decide to make Big Bro's last day the day before the new guy starts, and Eddie would quit shortly afterward, sticking around just long enough to watch the bomb go off. Did I mention Big Bro never told Chad he was quitting? Yeah. He just didn't show up that Monday. He had, however, emailed that 'documentation' he'd spent a week writing to Chad. Turns out he wasn't documenting the code at all. He'd spent a week writing a letter explaining in excruciating detail why Chad was such a bad boss, and he'd emailed it to everyone in the company. I asked if he still had it so I could read it, and he sent it to me after the call.
Thankfully, like the big helper he was, Eddie had ensured that the new guy's email was set up and in the proper groups before the email was sent, so the guys first email in the company was a novella about the kind of person he' agreed to work for. Apparently Chad thought it was appropriate to take his frustration out on the new guy, who'd already read a significant portion of the email before Chad shoved him away from his desk and deleted it. Apparently new guy promptly decided (and rightfully so) that agreeing to work for Chad had been a mistake, packed up his things, and quit on the spot.
Part 3) With the new guy quitting, the August deadline was now little more than a dream within a dream, which according to Eddie doesn't stop Chad and Richard from trying to find that miracle rock star engineer who can save them from their own situation (which, given what they were offering as pay, didn't exist). So time advances in its unstoppable way, August arrives, and customers find that they've paid for something that hasn't been delivered yet, and pretty much unanimously demand refunds, with a few customers bringing legal action against them. With the amount they have to refund, and the money they now need for legal fees (because of they way they'd incorporated, they were personally liable), they could no longer afford to pay anyone, and were forced to shutter the business.
_________________
Final Note: For my fellow software engineers out there who were wondering just how bad this application was, this "program" was a single php file with over 40k lines of code, running inside a `while` loop. Any and all logic consisted of if/else trees, which then led to either more if/else trees or more loops. No function calls, no external libraries included, just.... spaghetti of the worst kind. Given the nature of the application, most critical logic had to be implemented in no less than seven places, depending on where the execution was when the logic was needed. At worst the tab-depth was something like nineteen or twenty tabs deep.
_________________
Post upvote-splosion edit:
I wanted to write out my thanks, and to answer some of your questions, but it turned into another long wall of text. So, instead I put it in a comment, which I'll link to here:
https://www.reddit.com/MaliciousCompliance/comments/lb8evx/cut_my_salary_in_half_kiss_your_business_goodbye/glvy3kg/
submitted by technicalviking to MaliciousCompliance [link] [comments]

GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3

GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3
Hello all,
Before I begin I would like to address something I have been encountering on my posts in the comments section. I keep receiving some hate concerning my opinions and I want to be crystal clear that they are just that; opinions. I also want everyone to know that is is meant to be a dialog. I am not trying to pump this stock because truthfully, this goes far beyond us retail investors at this point. What I want is a dialog between all sides to examine this truly fascinating phenomenon that is occurring.
I would also like to clarify something, I am not a bagholder. I do currently hold bags because I own 336 shares at a $194.34 cost basis, however, that total amount is house money that was used from my profits on the first go around.
I also understand some people are tired of hearing about this because it's the same regurgitated form of someone else's post as it keeps circulating in an attempt to retain hype and drive future buying; this is not what this post is about. As investors and individuals involved in the world of finance, this situation should absolutely intrigue us whether or not we are involved. I am here to present my logic on the situation but encourage healthy discussion and debate.
This brings me to my first claim. This is not over. Now, I am not claiming that a squeeze will still occur, I am simply claiming it is not over, for better or for worse. Several things need to take place for this to be completely over, at which point I will either post my gains or my losses from the adventure.
When I say "it" I am referring to this entire phenomenon, not one short squeeze. I do not think these events, "it", is over. This is largely due to retail and institutional purchasing not really changing all that much since we found the bottom and established support at a staggering $60. This support was lost today and found new support at $50. There was very interesting ATH action and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Millions of bag holders (not just WSB) are still holding and in fact, averaging down, thereby purchasing more. These same bag holders are absolutely refusing to sell for such massive losses and in turn are becoming long term investors on the stock if another squeeze isn't to occur. People are picking up speculative positions in the off-chance of another squeeze. Others are determining this as a fair value for the company, not fundamentally, but based on the future prospects of Ryan Cohen and team. Finally, it is nowhere near leaving the global stage with important upcoming dates that we will discuss later.
To examine why it isn't over let's look at both sides of the argument:
  1. Bulls claim it's not over for many reasons that you can find in the hundreds of other bullish posts, so I won't bore you with those details. My argument on the bull side is more along the lines of what I listed above.
  2. Bears claim it is over because there was a 2250% price increase over the course of two weeks, therefore this must be a short squeeze.
I think we can all agree, bear or bull, that something happened. A 2250% increase certainly isn't nothing. The question is...what? I see several possibilities and would like to discuss them in the comments.
  1. The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze.
  2. The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze, but the price increase was mainly hype and gamma squeezes.
  3. The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
  4. Some combination of the above 3.
First, the data:
Based on morningstar the short interest is showing 78.46%. Now, I think the website is having some issues storing cookies because it will show the outdated 226% unless you open it up in incognito.
Market watch is showing 41.95%
This spread is interesting for sure, my thoughts are some of these calculations are including "synthetic longs" introduced by S3.
It is extremely possible to manipulate these numbers via illegal methods and even legal methods using options. Please see this SEC document to explain how this would work. I am not trying to convince anyone to fit my narrative, but these things occur far more commonly than one would expect. The reasoning is because the fines for committing the crime are far less costly than letting the event take place. Please see FINRA's website for the long, and frequent list of fines being dealt out due to manipulation. A common culprit? Lying about short volume.
Let's use the absolute worst case scenario being reported of 41.95%, which mind you is still extremely high for one stock:
The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze
What's interesting here is even if the shorts 100% covered all of their positions, they very well could have shorted on the way back down. Why wouldn't you? It would be insane to not open a short position when this hit nearly $500 especially if you lost half of your companies money; what better way to get it back? For the remainder of this thesis, I will be assuming that some of the short positions that exist are newly opened positions at a higher price unless someone has a counter-claim as to why that wouldn't be possible/probable.
That would mean 226% was covered on the way up and another 41.95% was reopened on the way back down. Based on the volume and price changes throughout the past two weeks this simply doesn't pass the math check.
The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze.
Again, using 41.95% this is highly likely and the most reasonable case. Some, probably the worst positions, were covered on the way up.
I think this is precisely what happened, we had some partial shorts covering but for the most part it was gamma squeezes, hype, and FOMO whereby the price started climbing so rapidly it became smarter for the shorts to just wait out the bubble than to actually cover all of their positions.
Again, we fall into a "what-if" scenario regarding shorting on the way back down.
The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
This scenario does not pass the math check using the 41.95% figure.
If the data is being manipulated then this becomes very interesting because if some of the worst positions are still open then that means all of these HF's losses that were reported were strictly interest and they are simply waiting this out for as long as it takes making back their losses on their newly opened short positions in t $300-$400 range.
Sadly, this puts us in the guessing range yet again. We can do the math and see it's possible this scenario exists, however, we would be comparing it against losses reported by the entities that were being squeezed.
There are way to many what-if's for me to me consider this a possibility, but I can't write it off completely.
Some combination of the above 3.
Truthfully, this isn't worth examining just yet. There would be far to many "what-if's" to address, this is something that could be address at the later dates that we will get to shortly.
Now, I've heard it a lot regarding the 02/09 data. "It's two weeks old". Well, that is always the case. The FINRA short data is always two weeks old and suggesting that we can't pull any information from it at all is asinine. Where it gets quite murky, is the data includes 01/27 information. This was a day unlike any other in this saga.
I will take this moment to address the following upcoming catalysts and when I truly think this will be done; one way or the other.
Today's data 02/09, was very important because if it showed an extremely low percentage then we know shorts have exited and did not re-enter and this is completely done. Given the data does not reflect that, we now must turn to several events that could act as catalysts for either a further squeeze or a complete shutdown.
02/19 - In my last post, I discussed the Failure To Deliver (FTD) conundrum. I do need some help figuring out the exact expiration date. From here "The close-out requirement states that a participant of a clearing agency needs to take immediate action to close 4 out a fail to deliver position in a threshold security that has persisted for 13 consecutive settlement days by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity."
The exact date is slightly irrelevant because I highly doubt all of these FTD's are going to deliver on the same exact day. This site, while it isn't an official channel seems to be doing a good job of tracking data. If you want to learn more about FTD's and the implications there please visit that site or review my last post which has links to follow for further reading.
02/18 - Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue will testify before congress and RH CEO Vladimir will be attending. This can go several ways which can lead to an SEC trading halt on GameStop or with evidence that proves foul play occurred. Who knows? It will certainly be interesting and I don't even to speculate on the market reaction to this even because it could go a ton of different ways; it will be an important date nonetheless
02/24 - The next FINRA short interest information will be made readily available to the public. This will be far more interesting and helpful information because it won't include the insane volatility of January, but it will also highlight the newest short positions. This data will help further drive where I think this is all going to end. It's possible that shorts opened new positions at $50 thinking it was going back to $12. Let's not speculate too much here either, it's just another dataset that will bring light to the direction this is headed.
03/25 - GameStop ER. This is big too for several reasons. First, this will include the console sales cycle which historically has done well for GameStop. A typical buy the hype, sell the news event. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts leading up to this ER, maybe people won't even touch GME leading up to then due to the recent volatility, but if they do, and if there is still a lot of short interest, this too could force shorts to begin covering. Another critical part of this ER is Ryan Cohen. This will be the first time this new board addresses the public with their plans for the future and for the first time since this entire adventure began, the "dying brick and mortar" narrative will finally begin to change in the public eye. That is still the common misconception regarding GameStop, that it is a dying brick and mortar retailer where nothing has changed. This hasn't been the case for around 6 months now, but this will be the first time it is publicly address. The headlines surrounding GameStop's future plans will be very interesting to read and the markets reaction will be far more interesting.
I have been asked a lot what my PT is and when I expect the squeeze to happen, but let me be clear. Very seldom do squeezes "just happen". In fact, short squeezes are far more common than one would think, they just typically happen over months, if not years and the shorts cover on dips so you don't even notice it's happening. In order to force a squeeze, you need to hold a decent amount of shorts underwater. Soon one will crack and start closing their position, this leads to a series of shorts closing their positions skyrocketing the price until more and more shorts need to cover. This is rare.
I hope this narrative of purchasing heavily shorted companies comes to a close soon because a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money simply buying up companies because they are heavily bet against. Catalysts and massive changes need to occur like overhauling your entire business as is the case with GameStop.
Normally, shorts will close their positions one at a time, covering on dips and you don't even notice it's happening. In times where you see a price rise of seemingly no news could very well be shorts closing their positions because their research led them to realize this company is on the road to recovery.
I digress. Given the most recent data and the multiple upcoming catalysts I am still very bullish on a GME short squeeze. My post from quite some time ago illustrated the importance of catalysts regarding a short squeeze, this is still very much the case. The first run was interrupted and the second run won't happen with magic, it requires a catalyst. Another post was titled For those who do not understand the inevitable GME short squeeze, was at the time "inevitable" because math. That is no longer the case. It is no longer inevitable but it is still possible.
I want to be clear: This is not nearly as close to a sure thing as it once was and it depends on a lot of different factors. One of the largest is the people. Granted, a lot of what's happening now is in the hands of institutions but millions of retailers holding their positions to the grave certainly helps the institutional buyers have more faith in their play to continue a squeeze.
SO WHAT DO I THINK
I think shorts certainly covered some of their positions, but not all. I also firmly believe a significant amount of short positions were opened on the way back down by both HF's and individuals. Some certainly positioned high, but based on sentiment, it appears a lot of people think GME is fairly valued around $20 (which I disagree with but let's use that for the time being). That would mean shorts would have no problem opening positions at 100,70,60, even $50.
42% is still very high which means a squeeze is inevitable so long as the company continues in a positive path. However, squeezes typically aren't as abrupt as people think. They are actually quite common, in fact another position I'm heavily invested in is SPCE and they have been going through a squeeze for several weeks and will continue to squeeze so long as news continues to be positive.
How would we get an abrupt short squeeze? A massive bull run. The new shorts that entered at lower levels wouldn't be too hard to catch, however, they are probably low volume, so when they buy to close, it won't be large enough volumes for massive peaks, but a bull run very well could lead to these lower tiered shorts closing, triggering a gamma squeeze. If gamma squeezes are made week over week then shorts at the higher end would have two options:
  1. Close early and take profits
  2. Wait it out because they are positioned so well that interest means nothing and they don't think there is any hope of us rising to those levels.
In the first case, them closing early would be a nice short squeeze to probably several hundred dollars, but it wouldn't break $1000.
To break $1000 we would need a big bull run to catch the shorts, trigger gamma squeezes, and keep momentum until they are caught and underwater. This is highly unlikely unless there is another global sentiment.
NOTE: ALL OF THESE ASSUMPTIONS I AM MAKING ARE BASED ON THE 42% REPORTING. IF IT IS IN FACT 78% THEN THE POSSIBILITY IS TREMENDOUSLY INCREASED FOR THESE THINGS TO HAPPEN.
SO WHEN DOES IT ALL END
My though is if by the end of March these catalysts were not enough to reignite the hype and squeeze, then it will essentially be over except in the case of a few circumstances:
  1. A VW/Porche moment occurs where a large buyer picks up a large portion of the company.
  2. Some other currently unknown catalyst appears seemingly out of thin air
  3. The data was in fact manipulated. Regardless of what the data says, if the shorts did in fact lie about their short int to take the fine over being squeezed, then they will be squeezed regardless.
It is quite possible, that these catalysts and moments aren't enough to force a squeeze anymore especially if the shorts have repositioned really well. I will retain the mindset that this fateful January 2021 was not a short squeeze. However, that does not mean it will ever actually happen.
SO WHAT IS YOUR PLAY HOOMAN?
Well, I am long on GME which is why I didn't mind hopping back in even at outrageous prices. I will continue averaging down and don't plan on selling for quite some time, probably several years. The reason for this is I believe in Cohen and his team to turn this into something unexpected and I imagine an eventual ROI. Once this is all said and done and I think either the shorts truly have covered or they simply got away with it (Beginning of April), I will be posting my DD for GME as a long play regardless of the squeeze mechanics.
Thank you all for joining me on this wild journey. I hope we can discuss some of these points in the comments like adults and truly try to grasp this wild situation we are all in. There are extremes on both sides from "get over it, the squeeze happened" to a cult like mentality on the other extreme. I hope through discussion we can find the moderate approach and further understand the market mechanics at play.
Thanks for your time
WARNING: Until the squeeze business is over for good, this is a very volatile and risky play. Joining now for the hope of a potential round 2 squeeze should only be done in a speculative manner with money you are willing to lose. This is more akin to a gamble than it is investing. I think the current market price is fair given the future prospects of the company but do your own DD, I will not be releasing any until this squeeze is put to rest.
TL;DR: I am still bullish on this scenario even at 42%, if it really is 78% then I am extremely bullish. There are a plethora of upcoming catalysts that could reignite the squeeze but even if none are powerful enough, with Cohen's new direction we could expect good news for quite some time forcing shorts to exit on a more spread out timeline.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I do not wish to sway your opinion in either direction. I simply seek to examine this interesting and volatile situation via crowd sourcing. What you do with your money is entirely up to you.
submitted by hooman_or_whatever to stocks [link] [comments]

In my 28 years of Gaming Experiences... Cyberpunk 2077 is by far the most unbalanced gaming experience I've had to date.

Hi all, I feel like it's time to share my opinions and thoughts after letting this subreddit cooldown for sometime. Around February of last year, I began work on a massive passion project developing https://NETRUNNER2077.net after following this title and being a massive fan of CD Projekt Red from the original Witcher title. When they announced Cyberpunk 2077 would be their next IP I was immensely excited as I'm a huge Cyberpunk genre nerd in all forms from art, movies, anime, philosophies, books, cultural significance and relation, aesthetics and more. So having my all time favorite game company work on a huge open world Cyberpunk "RPG" instantly generated immediate interest.
Now where to even begin?
Please note, I've yet to purposely "finish" Cyberpunk 2077 in hopes of CD Projekt Red making a strong come back later on in the future, and hopes that they'll eventually release a REDKit for modders in order to create some incredible work and help flesh the game world out. I have put around close to 200 hours into Cyberpunk 2077 exploring the different Life Paths and their effects on the world. Lots of walking, No fast travel and tons of time lost in an attempt to "Immerse" myself in the experience. I refused to finish Cyberpunk 2077's Main Story for several reasons. The largest being I'm typically against playing titles that are obviously not complete. On top of that, I've invested so much time and effort into researching, designing, learning web design and working towards building an awesome platform in order to properly cover Cyberpunk 2077 with a safe bet of thinking "This couldn't possibly be bad" only to coming around to reality very shortly after and that this title truly needed ATLEAST another year of development time.
There are aspects of Cyberpunk 2077 that are, in my opinion, worthy of putting it in the all time legendary category of games. Then.. other parts that make games from even 20 years ago look superior. It's a very "unbalanced" experience. So much that it takes the top spot for me personally. My experience of Cyberpunk 2077 is that it feels unfinished and some what rushed in many areas, if that isn't obvious enough already. But the thing is, as many of you probably already know, it just isn't bugs. Features, Content, Weapons, Immersive Elements, AI, RPG Elements and Game Design Systems are flat out missing or just straight up broken entirely.
Here are just a few of the elements that I have a problem with personally..
Then you have this huge dystopic metropolis of a city which looks absolutely phenomenal. I think it'll truly go down in history for its amazing design and the techniques they used to craft this insanely dense city. There's truly nothing like visiting Night City and it surely is a unique experience from a VISUAL and AUDIO design standpoint. The writing is solid most of the time as well. It really just feels like they had a very direct deadline and were forced to wrap systems up after changing the core game several times over and over again which caused loads of bugs in the code. I really hope when I come back to this game in a year it'll be quite different but after what CDPR pulled I find it extremely hard to trust and have faith in them.
I had so much faith and love in this company that I ended up spending countless months building, designing, and launching NETRUNNER 2077 almost single handedly but after playing Cyberpunk 2077 for weeks, I couldn't even bring myself to write a review over it. Honestly, I would've been way too critical and harsh. Especially after having to monitor and dissect everything that was "said" to be in the game and how systems were suppose to "work" and it ended up being nothing like that what so ever. At this point and time I have no motivation or confidence to continue the platform due to the recent events and actions of CDPR's upper management as well as the highly manipulative marketing that made Cyberpunk 2077 only a glass half full of what it was intended to actually be.
I made sure to set my expectations accordingly from what was told from developers to fans via interviews, deep dives and what was reported to sources that was approved by CDPR. With that and the EXTREMELY misleading marketing, it leaves an extremely sour taste in my mouth. I really want to have faith that they can turn this title around, but something feels off. I understand from a legal perspective that they probably cant at the moment. I just hope one day that this game can truly live up to its potential. There is an incredible foundation set, but it's ultimately up to CD Projekt Red if they choose to deliver their originally intended vision.
For other upper management in game development out there possibly reading this- if your game isn't finished, please market it correctly as an "Early Access Game" and not a finished product. That is straight up lying and deceiving fans and consumers out there. It isn't right, and needs to stop.
submitted by animosityhavoc to cyberpunkgame [link] [comments]

Promised but missing feature list (will update with comments)

Let's lay down a list of what was promised to us but it was found missing from the game.
FINAL EDIT: Ok guys I think we have a good lay out of the game we were promised vs the game we had. I won't really modify further this list. I think we have touched on every main aspect of the game in a truthful and objective (for what we can) way. Please if you have any critism let it be contructive and well documented. Many of these are complex issues that deserve more than just a twitter post to be discussed. Also feel free to use this if needed in the future.
Features we were told to expect but aren't in the game:
- AMAZING AI that directs enemies during combat/patrol but also citizens and npcs' daily life (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kbk4ap/the_ai_of_cyberpunk_2077_an_indepth_look_at_the/)
- wanted system and corrupt police (https://gamerant.com/cyberpunk-2077-wanted-system-corrupt-police/)
-Immersive police involvment changing with the area where you commited the crime (https://www.usgamer.net/articles/cyberpunk-2077-producer-details-law-enforcement)
- (half kept) in general, more interesting combat and hacking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FknHjl7eQ6o). Some examples are the ability to use your wire to hack people (https://youtu.be/vjF9GgrY9c0?t=2540), hacking reveales information about the network, more interesting viruses to upload, more loot from hacked devices. DISCLAIMER: the changes here may be due entirely to balace issues and/or making the game better and more intuitive. I keep this as a promise "half kept" as the hacking system gets really boring really soon and doesn't even many abilities you can upgrade. The skill tree is filled with passive and all you do is press tab, pick whatever, kill, repeat. For a better explanation please read this: https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kcve8s/promised_but_missing_feature_list_will_update/gfyly34?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
- more interesting gameplay, for example: trauma team that plays a key role, freequent flying avs, ads that target the player point to the merchant that sells that product, merch could be pre-viewed before purchase (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVAryZ0GLwE and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjF9GgrY9c0&feature=youtu.be&t=2531) NOTE: this section is by far the most oversimplied one. There are a number of minute key things I am not stating in this thread because I don't want to dilute it too much, i.e.: https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kcve8s/promised_but_missing_feature_list_will_update/gfvxkxw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
- Strong RPG elements (https://wccftech.com/cyberpunk-2077-is-a-much-deeper-roleplaying-experience-than-the-witcher-3-says-dev/). This was actually subject of lengthy debates in this thread, as some of you are happy with the "RPGness" of CP2077. Personally I have not seen a lot of elements that make a game an RPG, such as relevant checks (speech, perception... right now all we have are options to break a door or go around it), solid companions, defined power dynamics between factions and a general sense of progression achieved through meaningful upgrade to your character. The game right now is more akin to a shootelooter with stats. Which is not "strong RPG element". Mind you, if you like it this way it's perfect, and I personally don't mind it too much. But the lack of RPG components does stay in the list as a promised not fulfilled. And no, madqueen, having 7 different finales that you get to choose doesn't make a looteshooter an RPG.
- NPC unique daily routine and AI (https://www.vg247.com/2020/06/08/cyberpunk-2077-npcs-1000-daily-routines/)
- Quest decisions will have relevance in the world (https://onlysp.escapistmagazine.com/cyberpunk-2077-changes/)
- (half kept) Meaningful day and night cycle (right now it's mainly cosmetic and doesn't impact the gameplay a lot, e.g.: you aren't more stealthy at night) as described in Exploring Cyberpunk's Night City with CD Projekt Red - Cyberpunk 2077 - Gamereactor but it does something, like opening and closing some venues (according to some, I am 200h in and venues are always open for me) and modifying some population density. I have not seen evidence of places being more dangerous at night. If you have please record a clip and send it over.
- Incredible character customization during creation / in-game (https://gamecrate.com/cyberpunk-2077-boxing-power-weapons-militech-spider-robot-and-more/23426 and https://www.gamesradar.com/uk/cyberpunk-2077-character-creation/)
- Use of drones for more than just some missions in the game (https://gamecrate.com/cyberpunk-2077-boxing-power-weapons-militech-spider-robot-and-more/23426)
- three different lifepaths and more that would actually have more impact than what we are getting now (Wall running and metro system are not the biggest thing to be cut out from the game. Its the plot : cyberpunkgame (reddit.com)) for a better description on why lifepaths are poorly implemented. this post (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kdmrju/the_corpo_life_path_makes_no_sense/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) is a good example.
- to add on the previous point, lifepaths leading to non-linear quest design. (https://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2019/09/12/cyberpunk-2077-lifepath-system/)
- Nanowire and gorilla arms have a lot of different uses that are still in the description of the item (https://twitter.com/CyberpunkGame/status/1153684171606450178?s=09).
- Runs very well on last gen consoles (source NOT needed)
- The game will launch when it's ready (source NOT needed)
- Variety of braindances instead of it being just few cutscenes (can't find reference, please link)(so far videos like this https://youtu.be/ToWfeUEAeeQ?t=1167 point that braindance is a cool mechanic but they never said we'd be able to purchase and use the braindances on our devices and all. I don't feel this is a broken promise, rather an aspect of the game that we would love to have had implemented).
- Challenging weather system that would pose a threat to your survival (https://www.windowscentral.com/cyberpunk-2077-features-acid-rain-and-other-deadly-environmental-challenges)
- At time of writing I haven't finished the game. However sources say there are very very few options for ONS and/or deep romances (this article summarizes what was expected https://www.ginx.tv/en/cyberpunk-2077/cyberpunk-2077-everything-about-relationships-romance-and-sex)
- Finishing the game without finishing the main quest ( https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thegamer.com/cyberpunk-side-quests-so-in-depth-finish-game-without-main-quest/amp/) At time of writing I haven't seen any progression just following the subplot and it looks like the main story is the quest to follow if I want to see an epilogue. This appears to be an error in translation during the interview.
- The game will let you select your body type and your gender freely, allowing you to obtain whatever combination of voice/gendegenitalia you want. Sex/Gender complete fluidity was something allowed in the cyberpunk tabletop games and very very relevant in the lore of the cyberpunk society (https://www.gaytimes.co.uk/culture/cyberpunk-2077-will-include-gender-free-character-creation-and-queer-relationships/amp/).
- A polished game and smooth experience (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kd5qow/2018_interview_cyberpunk_2077_will_be_as_polished/)
- weapon customization (https://nightcitylife.de/index.php/features-artikel/341-xxl-preview-cyberpunk-2077-angespielt?start=5) although we got mods so this is half kept.
- 4 different styles, clearly highlighted, that you can adeere to and will make NPC react to it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=YlyDJVYqfpA). Please note that this was advertised as true 2 months before release.

Features that were initially promised but removed during development (CDPR was transparent about those):
- Properties purchase and customization options (Promised but then removed) (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/9bu0d5/purchasable_apartments_confirmed/)
- Transportation system (Promised but then removed) (https://www.gamepressure.com/newsroom/cyberpunk-2077-wont-show-subway-travel/z41f9d)
- Scaling walls (Promised but then removed) (https://www.ign.com/articles/cyberpunk-2077-wall-running-mantis-blades-cut)
- Vehicle customization (Promised but then removed) (https://www.altchar.com/game-news/cyberpunk-2077-wont-have-vehicle-customisation-aonab8e3yY6b)
- V voice customization beyond choosing the gender (Promised but then removed) (CDPR Confirms That Cyberpunk 2077 Won't Have Voice Customization (thegamer.com))
IMPORTANT: I see many of you contributed and I thank you. However this thread is specifically for broken promises, i.e. things that they said (in an article, tweet, interview...) we would find in the game and didn't. I believe there are other thread specifically for quality of life things we would want to see implemented in the game (and the list is infinite there as well).
EDIT: Alright I have monitored all your replies and added what I felt was truthful. The point of this list is not to discuss minutia but to have a concentrated and dense point of reference for future discussion.
My personal opinion is that Cyberpunk 2077 is another reason to always try to hold people accountable for what they promised. Yes I know what companies do isn't illegal but that should not stop us to manifest discontent for what we think are malpractices in the game industry.
Edit: thank you for the awards - I really appreciate it. However please do not waste your money on me, I am lucky enough. Donate instead to an organization of your choice, my favorite ones are Emergency (of Gino Strada) or Wikipedia.
submitted by SpikeCraft to cyberpunkgame [link] [comments]

[Streetwear] The brick that broke the speculator's back: How a single gag accessory may have permanently altered all perception of New York's premier street fashion brand.

Friends, the story I bring to you today is not a fallout, but a crescendo. How years of grassroots promotion and online influencer endorsements led to a once underground fashion brand's rise to power and entry into the hallowed halls of internet ridicule. Or, the time Supreme sold a brick for thirty dollars.
(this post contains a lot of context for what Supreme is and how it works, so if you only wanna know how and why they sold a brick, skip to the brick section)
What is Supreme?
Supreme is a skateboard and lifestyle brand founded by British-American fashion mogul James Jebbia. In an era where skate fashion was known for its eccentricity and garish presentation, Supreme stood out. It's iconic logo is made with stock typeface over a red box, which pushed the brand to the 2-billion dollar empire it is today. While the Box Logo (or the Bogo, as it's known among fans) has seen its share of ridicule (a lawsuit involving the logo could be its own entry) the brand's diehard fanbase, as well as myself, would argue the stripped-back, downright esoteric nature of Supremes' branding is exactly what pushed it to its heights.
But it's taken a long time getting here. Unless you lived in New York, you probably only heard of Supreme in the last couple of years. All in all, there are four stores in the continental United States, two on each coast. Two releases happen per year, spring/summer and fall/winter. Rather than release all merchandise at once, Supreme releases (Drops) happen one week at a time, slowly working through its seasonal inventory. This release model not only maintains interest in new releases all throughout it's season, it perpetuates interest in what will drop next, since not everything coming out is revealed at once, either. It's common to hear about cross-brand and artist collaborations mere days before they release.
All in all, everything Supreme does as a brand is on a need-to-know basis, meaning they've effectively mastered the art of FOMO. This means a diehard fanbase of skaters and fashion collectors. Half the reason a piece of Supreme clothing so cool to own is because only you and a couple hundred people (maybe a couple thousand, Supreme doesn't disclose inventory metrics either) have one. Naturally, a fandom would form.
How Supreme makes a fan.
On drop day, items generally cost what any other brand would charge, maybe a little more. Pieces are only available in store or online, both opening at 11am EST. What follows is a mad dash only Nike can claim to share. The online store operates on a first-come, first-serve basis, and the physical stores do the same, ala lining up for a game console. On a good day, you have maybe three minutes to cart your item and check out. The site does not save your cart so if you take too long, the piece you just added to your shopping cart might already be sold out by the time your payment is processed. If you've spent the past three months trying to buy a PS5, welcome to our world. We do this forty weeks a year.
You lose a lot (take an L). Seventy-percent of the things you want you will fail to get. But when you do finally check out and get your purchase at your door (take a W, a dub, recklessly spend money) the feeling is euphoric. You are now a part of a secret club because, guess what, that was the initiation process. Some people buy one item and never try again. They're few and far between. The majority of Supreme customers have been buying (copping) for years, amassing massive collections. Sooner or later, Supreme would release an item specifically for fans and nobody else. The problem is when they did.
Okay, that's cool, but why the **** did Supreme sell a thirty-dollar brick.
Good question. The best part is that there's several answers. Along with clothing and skateboard decks, Supreme sells a wide, constantly-circulating pools of accessories. These have been a mini bike, a Super Soaker, a pinball machine, a crowbar that at least one guy really wanted, and coming soon, apparently, a bob...sled? Supremes' accessory choice is as baffling as everything else they do. A common riff on the brand is that they could "put their logo on literally anything and it would sell out." These people are not wrong, but I'd argue their accessory choice is more nuanced than this. Their logo alone could sell all kinds of things, but its the things they do sell that begin to send a message. For example, a Supreme baseball bat is nothing profound, but next to a Supreme ski mask, a Supreme crowbar, a Supreme money gun, and a Supreme... brick, the street-smart, underground roots of the brand begin to take root. There's always been an underlying, illicit message to Supremes' aesthetics, coated in a minimalist exterior. This subtext what splits the speculators and the mega-fans.
Those mega-fans bring to life a second answer for why, in Fall 2016, supreme released a thirty-dollar clay brick with their logo etched in: one piece of Hypebeast lingo I've omitted until now is when an item Bricks. This is when any particular item either in-store or online sits in stock, with nobody buying it. No true-blue Supreme diehard would ever wear something anyone else could feasibly get for retail price or, god willing, below retail price. Bricks are poison to many an avid fan, which is why the brand might have thought it funny to sell to them an actual, literal brick. For thirty dollars. You get one brick. it sold out in seconds.
But where's the drama?
At the exact same time the brick was released to fans, two separate parties were growing aware of this once niche fashion label. Online influencers, and everyone else. Supreme was a mainstay among outsider artists, mainly underground New York hip-hop. The start of the 2010s saw the rise of Odd Future, whose alumni such as Earl Sweatshirt and Tyler, The Creator were outspoken fans of the brand. While endorsements like these got the word out somewhat, the boom began in late 2016. Online influencers, mainly YouTubers and Instagram stars whose follower counts ballooned as lifestyle vlogs took over online content, were growing quite interested in this exclusive and expensive brand so deeply tied to underground Hip-hop, skateboarding, and having something expensive that everyone else will be totally jealous of. Notably, YouTuber RiceGum, a man with a tendency to flaunt his spending, took an acute interest to the brand around this time, making videos between 2016-2018 where he went on massive Hypebeast spending sprees. Such content includes buying a Supreme hoodie that just dropped and wearing it while walking past people currently in line to buy their own, buying mystery boxes online that just happened to have Supreme in them every time, and giving bootleg Supreme merchandise to his friends. You'll have to forgive the lack of hyperlinks here. I do not have the stomach to watch his videos.
This behavior of course spawned similar in his contemporaries. This is why you started hearing the word Flex in regards to flaunting clothes and accessories around second-graders. Influencers from all spheres, who happened to all start taking off in late 2016, were wearing Supreme. this in turn led hundreds of thousands to trying their luck at the raffle. what followed was season upon season of the online stores crashing on drop day and lines outside the store snaking for miles taking an entire day to clear (this led to a new in-store ticketing system where you pre-register and are given a random slot in line, to mixed results).
Who was mad here? Speculators who couldn't get in on the clothes their favorite LA influencer-person wears, longtime fans who now had to grapple with this unmanageable influx of new customers, and the people who had no interest in these expensive hoodies and shirts or whatever who were free to clown on this stupid, stupid brand.
ThEy SolD a BrICk???
Once the unimpressed got wind of this stupid hype brand selling their customers a thirty-dollar brick, there was no going back. The image of a fashion titan so confident in their ability to sell their mindless followers a clay slab with no utility or value was irreversible for some. One Reddit user calculated the cost of building an entire house out of these bricks, others made memes, and while a lot of these were tongue-and-cheek jokes among fans, the derision online and in-person was inescapable. The image of a Supreme wearer being an in-the-know fashion trailblazer became one of a bandwagon-following consumerist idiot. After all, they bought a brick. Suckers, right?
So what's it like now?
Well, the site still sucks. Crashes are common, especially on days a bogo drops. Lines in-person are still a sweaty, multi-hour nightmare (though, morbidly, Covid restrictions made lines this season a little more manageable) and wearing Supreme isn't impressive to anyone anymore. Maybe a sign you'd spend two-hundred dollars on a hoodie, but nothing interesting to talk about. On my first day of college, my first roommate saw my Supreme tee and the first words he spoke to me were "did you buy the f\**ing brick?"*
Is the brick solely responsible for the attitude shift towards Supreme as a brand? Well, more of a framer for a larger shift in the zeitgeist. Is it a major symptom? Major might be a strong word. Is it funny? It's hilarious. Even the fandom of today laughs about the episode in hindsight. They may be crazy, they may thoughtlessly spend thousands of dollars a month on clothes, they may consider their own worth adjacent to the net worth of their closet, but they are the ones who bought a brick for thirty dollars. This sort of power is something to be commended. Ridiculed, scorned, and commended.
submitted by freemanboyd to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

For ALL THOSE WHO MISSED ON GME, LOST MONEY OR BAGHOLDING...THIS IS THE ENDGAME 🚀

ALL CREDIT GOES TO u/hooman_or_whatever
GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3
Hello all,
Before I begin I would like to address something I have been encountering on my posts in the comments section. I keep receiving some hate concerning my opinions and I want to be crystal clear that they are just that; opinions. I also want everyone to know that is is meant to be a dialog. I am not trying to pump this stock because truthfully, this goes far beyond us retail investors at this point. What I want is a dialog between all sides to examine this truly fascinating phenomenon that is occurring.
I would also like to clarify something, I am not a bagholder. I do currently hold bags because I own 336 shares at a $194.34 cost basis, however, that total amount is house money that was used from my profits on the first go around.
I also understand some people are tired of hearing about this because it's the same regurgitated form of someone else's post as it keeps circulating in an attempt to retain hype and drive future buying; this is not what this post is about. As investors and individuals involved in the world of finance, this situation should absolutely intrigue us whether or not we are involved. I am here to present my logic on the situation but encourage healthy discussion and debate.
This brings me to my first claim. This is not over. Now, I am not claiming that a squeeze will still occur, I am simply claiming it is not over, for better or for worse. Several things need to take place for this to be completely over, at which point I will either post my gains or my losses from the adventure.
When I say "it" I am referring to this entire phenomenon, not one short squeeze. I do not think these events, "it", is over. This is largely due to retail and institutional purchasing not really changing all that much since we found the bottom and established support at a staggering $60. This support was lost today and found new support at $50. There was very interesting ATH action and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Millions of bag holders (not just WSB) are still holding and in fact, averaging down, thereby purchasing more. These same bag holders are absolutely refusing to sell for such massive losses and in turn are becoming long term investors on the stock if another squeeze isn't to occur. People are picking up speculative positions in the off-chance of another squeeze. Others are determining this as a fair value for the company, not fundamentally, but based on the future prospects of Ryan Cohen and team. Finally, it is nowhere near leaving the global stage with important upcoming dates that we will discuss later.
To examine why it isn't over let's look at both sides of the argument:
  1. Bulls claim it's not over for many reasons that you can find in the hundreds of other bullish posts, so I won't bore you with those details. My argument on the bull side is more along the lines of what I listed above.
  2. Bears claim it is over because there was a 2250% price increase over the course of two weeks, therefore this must be a short squeeze.
I think we can all agree, bear or bull, that something happened. A 2250% increase certainly isn't nothing. The question is...what? I see several possibilities and would like to discuss them in the comments.
  1. The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze.
  2. The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze, but the price increase was mainly hype and gamma squeezes.
  3. The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
  4. Some combination of the above 3.
First, the data:
Based on morningstar the short interest is showing 78.46%. Now, I think the website is having some issues storing cookies because it will show the outdated 226% unless you open it up in incognito.
Market watch is showing 41.95%
This spread is interesting for sure, my thoughts are some of these calculations are including "synthetic longs" introduced by S3.
It is extremely possible to manipulate these numbers via illegal methods and even legal methods using options. Please see this SEC document to explain how this would work. I am not trying to convince anyone to fit my narrative, but these things occur far more commonly than one would expect. The reasoning is because the fines for committing the crime are far less costly than letting the event take place. Please see FINRA's website for the long, and frequent list of fines being dealt out due to manipulation. A common culprit? Lying about short volume.
Let's use the absolute worst case scenario being reported of 41.95%, which mind you is still extremely high for one stock:
The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze
What's interesting here is even if the shorts 100% covered all of their positions, they very well could have shorted on the way back down. Why wouldn't you? It would be insane to not open a short position when this hit nearly $500 especially if you lost half of your companies money; what better way to get it back? For the remainder of this thesis, I will be assuming that some of the short positions that exist are newly opened positions at a higher price unless someone has a counter-claim as to why that wouldn't be possible/probable.
That would mean 226% was covered on the way up and another 41.95% was reopened on the way back down. Based on the volume and price changes throughout the past two weeks this simply doesn't pass the math check.
The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze.
Again, using 41.95% this is highly likely and the most reasonable case. Some, probably the worst positions, were covered on the way up.
I think this is precisely what happened, we had some partial shorts covering but for the most part it was gamma squeezes, hype, and FOMO whereby the price started climbing so rapidly it became smarter for the shorts to just wait out the bubble than to actually cover all of their positions.
Again, we fall into a "what-if" scenario regarding shorting on the way back down.
The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.
This scenario does not pass the math check using the 41.95% figure.
If the data is being manipulated then this becomes very interesting because if some of the worst positions are still open then that means all of these HF's losses that were reported were strictly interest and they are simply waiting this out for as long as it takes making back their losses on their newly opened short positions in t $300-$400 range.
Sadly, this puts us in the guessing range yet again. We can do the math and see it's possible this scenario exists, however, we would be comparing it against losses reported by the entities that were being squeezed.
There are way to many what-if's for me to me consider this a possibility, but I can't write it off completely.
Some combination of the above 3.
Truthfully, this isn't worth examining just yet. There would be far to many "what-if's" to address, this is something that could be address at the later dates that we will get to shortly.
Now, I've heard it a lot regarding the 02/09 data. "It's two weeks old". Well, that is always the case. The FINRA short data is always two weeks old and suggesting that we can't pull any information from it at all is asinine. Where it gets quite murky, is the data includes 01/27 information. This was a day unlike any other in this saga.
I will take this moment to address the following upcoming catalysts and when I truly think this will be done; one way or the other.
Today's data 02/09, was very important because if it showed an extremely low percentage then we know shorts have exited and did not re-enter and this is completely done. Given the data does not reflect that, we now must turn to several events that could act as catalysts for either a further squeeze or a complete shutdown.
02/19 - In my last post, I discussed the Failure To Deliver (FTD) conundrum. I do need some help figuring out the exact expiration date. From here "The close-out requirement states that a participant of a clearing agency needs to take immediate action to close 4 out a fail to deliver position in a threshold security that has persisted for 13 consecutive settlement days by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity."
The exact date is slightly irrelevant because I highly doubt all of these FTD's are going to deliver on the same exact day. This site, while it isn't an official channel seems to be doing a good job of tracking data. If you want to learn more about FTD's and the implications there please visit that site or review my last post which has links to follow for further reading.
02/18 - Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue will testify before congress and RH CEO Vladimir will be attending. This can go several ways which can lead to an SEC trading halt on GameStop or with evidence that proves foul play occurred. Who knows? It will certainly be interesting and I don't even to speculate on the market reaction to this even because it could go a ton of different ways; it will be an important date nonetheless
02/24 - The next FINRA short interest information will be made readily available to the public. This will be far more interesting and helpful information because it won't include the insane volatility of January, but it will also highlight the newest short positions. This data will help further drive where I think this is all going to end. It's possible that shorts opened new positions at $50 thinking it was going back to $12. Let's not speculate too much here either, it's just another dataset that will bring light to the direction this is headed.
03/25 - GameStop ER. This is big too for several reasons. First, this will include the console sales cycle which historically has done well for GameStop. A typical buy the hype, sell the news event. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts leading up to this ER, maybe people won't even touch GME leading up to then due to the recent volatility, but if they do, and if there is still a lot of short interest, this too could force shorts to begin covering. Another critical part of this ER is Ryan Cohen. This will be the first time this new board addresses the public with their plans for the future and for the first time since this entire adventure began, the "dying brick and mortar" narrative will finally begin to change in the public eye. That is still the common misconception regarding GameStop, that it is a dying brick and mortar retailer where nothing has changed. This hasn't been the case for around 6 months now, but this will be the first time it is publicly address. The headlines surrounding GameStop's future plans will be very interesting to read and the markets reaction will be far more interesting.
I have been asked a lot what my PT is and when I expect the squeeze to happen, but let me be clear. Very seldom do squeezes "just happen". In fact, short squeezes are far more common than one would think, they just typically happen over months, if not years and the shorts cover on dips so you don't even notice it's happening. In order to force a squeeze, you need to hold a decent amount of shorts underwater. Soon one will crack and start closing their position, this leads to a series of shorts closing their positions skyrocketing the price until more and more shorts need to cover. This is rare.
I hope this narrative of purchasing heavily shorted companies comes to a close soon because a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money simply buying up companies because they are heavily bet against. Catalysts and massive changes need to occur like overhauling your entire business as is the case with GameStop.
Normally, shorts will close their positions one at a time, covering on dips and you don't even notice it's happening. In times where you see a price rise of seemingly no news could very well be shorts closing their positions because their research led them to realize this company is on the road to recovery.
I digress. Given the most recent data and the multiple upcoming catalysts I am still very bullish on a GME short squeeze. My post from quite some time ago illustrated the importance of catalysts regarding a short squeeze, this is still very much the case. The first run was interrupted and the second run won't happen with magic, it requires a catalyst. Another post was titled For those who do not understand the inevitable GME short squeeze, was at the time "inevitable" because math. That is no longer the case. It is no longer inevitable but it is still possible.
I want to be clear: This is not nearly as close to a sure thing as it once was and it depends on a lot of different factors. One of the largest is the people. Granted, a lot of what's happening now is in the hands of institutions but millions of retailers holding their positions to the grave certainly helps the institutional buyers have more faith in their play to continue a squeeze.
SO WHAT DO I THINK
I think shorts certainly covered some of their positions, but not all. I also firmly believe a significant amount of short positions were opened on the way back down by both HF's and individuals. Some certainly positioned high, but based on sentiment, it appears a lot of people think GME is fairly valued around $20 (which I disagree with but let's use that for the time being). That would mean shorts would have no problem opening positions at 100,70,60, even $50.
42% is still very high which means a squeeze is inevitable so long as the company continues in a positive path. However, squeezes typically aren't as abrupt as people think. They are actually quite common, in fact another position I'm heavily invested in is SPCE and they have been going through a squeeze for several weeks and will continue to squeeze so long as news continues to be positive.
How would we get an abrupt short squeeze? A massive bull run. The new shorts that entered at lower levels wouldn't be too hard to catch, however, they are probably low volume, so when they buy to close, it won't be large enough volumes for massive peaks, but a bull run very well could lead to these lower tiered shorts closing, triggering a gamma squeeze. If gamma squeezes are made week over week then shorts at the higher end would have two options:
  1. Close early and take profits
  2. Wait it out because they are positioned so well that interest means nothing and they don't think there is any hope of us rising to those levels.
In the first case, them closing early would be a nice short squeeze to probably several hundred dollars, but it wouldn't break $1000.
To break $1000 we would need a big bull run to catch the shorts, trigger gamma squeezes, and keep momentum until they are caught and underwater. This is highly unlikely unless there is another global sentiment.
NOTE: ALL OF THESE ASSUMPTIONS I AM MAKING ARE BASED ON THE 42% REPORTING. IF IT IS IN FACT 78% THEN THE POSSIBILITY IS TREMENDOUSLY INCREASED FOR THESE THINGS TO HAPPEN.
SO WHEN DOES IT ALL END
My though is if by the end of March these catalysts were not enough to reignite the hype and squeeze, then it will essentially be over except in the case of a few circumstances:
  1. A VW/Porche moment occurs where a large buyer picks up a large portion of the company.
  2. Some other currently unknown catalyst appears seemingly out of thin air
  3. The data was in fact manipulated. Regardless of what the data says, if the shorts did in fact lie about their short int to take the fine over being squeezed, then they will be squeezed regardless.
It is quite possible, that these catalysts and moments aren't enough to force a squeeze anymore especially if the shorts have repositioned really well. I will retain the mindset that this fateful January 2021 was not a short squeeze. However, that does not mean it will ever actually happen.
SO WHAT IS YOUR PLAY HOOMAN?
Well, I am long on GME which is why I didn't mind hopping back in even at outrageous prices. I will continue averaging down and don't plan on selling for quite some time, probably several years. The reason for this is I believe in Cohen and his team to turn this into something unexpected and I imagine an eventual ROI. Once this is all said and done and I think either the shorts truly have covered or they simply got away with it (Beginning of April), I will be posting my DD for GME as a long play regardless of the squeeze mechanics.
Thank you all for joining me on this wild journey. I hope we can discuss some of these points in the comments like adults and truly try to grasp this wild situation we are all in. There are extremes on both sides from "get over it, the squeeze happened" to a cult like mentality on the other extreme. I hope through discussion we can find the moderate approach and further understand the market mechanics at play.
Thanks for your time
WARNING: Until the squeeze business is over for good, this is a very volatile and risky play. Joining now for the hope of a potential round 2 squeeze should only be done in a speculative manner with money you are willing to lose. This is more akin to a gamble than it is investing. I think the current market price is fair given the future prospects of the company but do your own DD, I will not be releasing any until this squeeze is put to rest.
TL;DR: I am still bullish on this scenario even at 42%, if it really is 78% then I am extremely bullish. There are a plethora of upcoming catalysts that could reignite the squeeze but even if none are powerful enough, with Cohen's new direction we could expect good news for quite some time forcing shorts to exit on a more spread out timeline.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I do not wish to sway your opinion in either direction. I simply seek to examine this interesting and volatile situation via crowd sourcing. What you do with your money is entirely up to you.
submitted by daftmydaft to GME [link] [comments]

In 2017 I sold 100 BTC (and BCH) for 1.5M dollars USD – Some thoughts

Since we are in a bull run (the big one?) I thought I might share some reflections. I’m seeing a lot of newcomers (welcome!) as well as some sophomore types with questions, ideas, admonitions, and the like. Pull up a chair, I've been around these parts for a while. And if anyone starts in with the "but yr account is only 2 years old" bullshit... come on, use your head.
First off, as Ecclesiastes 1:9 states:
What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
Over the last 7 years I have seen all these questions about what to do, these statements of selling, and others commenting how stupid and ignorant anyone who sells “right now” must be. People have called me a fucking moron for daring to part with some of my bitcoin, or argued with me that I don’t understand what I did. They are sad people (jealous? myopic? entitled? I still don’t know what they are trying to prove.)
Secondly: I’m certain a number of you will not believe my story. That is your right. I will not provide tx-id’s or any other form of proof. I just ask that you look at my post history and ponder – either this guy made up a story several years ago and stuck to it, posting every so often between /bitcoin and /financialindependence for magic internet points or maybe he is telling the truth. Seriously; if you doubt my story look at the post history and see if that helps, if not… so be it.
If you care about the deeper parts of my story, and the lively debates/admonitions/disbelievers check out my previous posts:
Short basics
More details / 1 year retired reflections
2yr retired reflections
Selling, Taxes, Coinbase
The story
I got into bitcoin back in 2013 or so, reading about it and really going down the rabbit hole. I am a scientist, and it is my nature to go deep on things of interest. One thing I learned in my graduate studies was “how to learn” (how to research). For you whippersnappers – that means more than Google and YouTube. So I learned, I read, I watched interviews, I set up a node, I mined shitcoins to understand how that worked (and traded them for bitcoin in the end.) Nobody I knew was into bitcoin, and nobody would listen to me about it. I tried to get my brother interested. I tried to get a tech friend interested. Both of them agreed it was “interesting” but not enough to acquire any bitcoin (this was around the time of bitcoin being just under $1k, before it dropped for several years post MtGox meltdown). So I carried on alone, with just the interwebs to console me.
In 2017 when bitcoin hit $4,000 or so, I sold 40 - enough to pay off my mortgage and cover my original costs to acquire all my holdings (avg sale price $4320). If bitcoin ate shit and died, I had a good ride, and had a paid off house to boot. I think it was a week or two later that it was $8,000. Then soon after it almost hit $20k and started dropping. I didn’t panic, but I woke up in mid-December and my brain screamed “don’t be greedy” to me. I listened to my brain and sold 60 BTC at around $15.6k each. Additionally, as I had my coins on Coinbase, when they opened trading for BCH in late December I dumped them within the first hour for around $3550 each. When all was said and done I had made somewhere near 1.5M USD.
If you have questions about how much I paid in taxes, how I moved the money, if my bank gave a shit (spoiler: they did not) etc. it’s covered in this post with details asked in the comments. You also get to see people tell me I am wrong, so there’s that fun as well.
I kept the rest of my BTC, and watched the price shrink down over the next couple years. I wondered if I had made a mistake by not cashing out, missed my “big chance for maxxx profits” or whatever, but it didn’t really matter that much because a few months after I made the initial money and paid my taxes, I fucking retired. Yes, as of almost 3 years ago, I retired. It wasn’t only because of the bitcoin – I had saved money, had a 401k, and an IRA. I was on my way to a modest retirement somewhere in my 50’s or so if I wanted it, but then BOOM, I had a huge nest egg, a paid off house, other savings, and additional bitcoin for the future. Cool. kthxbye work world!
I have spent the last 3 years leisurely pursuing my own things like art and music, woodworking, collage, gardening along with sleeping in and lots of meditation and porch dwelling. There have been several small tragedies in my life since then (parents in poor health, for one) and so I have been able to tend to that more so than I could if I was working. Being retired has given me so many options and so much control over my life. I love it.
Some of you might be thinking something along the lines of - Now here we are…bitcoin is worth $40k so roughly speaking this guy (me) “lost out” so far on about 2.4M after taxes. There’s also the fact that if I had kept working these last 3 years I would have additional income/savings that I could have invested so let’s round up to 3M after taxes, assuming I sold the 100 BTC now and the BCH immediately (I’m not a fan, and actually am surprised it didn’t die). How do I feel about losing out on $3M (and counting)? Honestly, not particularly bad.
Here’s the deal – when you get to a certain point in your net worth, where you can cover your costs for your lifestyle and more (and this number is different for everyone, for me I’m really chill, so no lambo interests) the money sort of converts itself into a score like on a video game. I can look back and think “oh man, 3 million fucking dollars more! Oh shit!” but do I lose sleep over it? No. Do I kick myself? Not really. My score is lower than it could have been… but in return, I got to help a friend die peacefully, I helped another friend pivot his business, I moved to a new city and bought a cool house (still own the old one as a rental, but maybe not for much longer), and I get to wake up every day and do exactly what I want to do (minus covid issues). It’s really nice to be out of the rat race. It suits me well. I know now that I could have made more - but at the time I had no clue, and there is something to be said for the comfort of the sure thing.
My base take is this – we only have so much time on this planet, and I’d like to maximize my control (vs. my wealth) as much as possible. It would be hard to imagine reliving the last 3 years with a full time job, and I don’t care to dwell on what might have been. I hit my retirement number (1.5x my number + remaining BTC) and GTFO of the system. That money has grown in the funds I put it into, and I never touch principle. My remaining bitcoin became and remain gravy and I plan on hodling until it doesn’t make sense anymore. My advice to all of you is to do your research, know your game plan for selling (I didn’t really have a solid one, honestly), be excellent to each other, and live that life. Ignore the noise – from nosy people in internet forums, from grouchy jealous jerkoffs, etc. This is your deal.
I’m happy to answer any questions. Hope you found this interesting.
submitted by FIRE_and_forget_it to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

AITA for not giving my cousin a PS5?

I managed to purchase a PS5 on launch day. I fought off the bots and after furiously clicking on the refresh button countless times. Eventually I managed to secure one set. I was really happy to get it and was posting about the new features and the games I was playing on it.

Recently, we had a competition where if you did some tasks, you had a chance of winning a PS5. The tasks were pretty simple so I entered anyway. A few weeks later I received an email telling me that I won!

I didn't actually think I would win so I didn't have any plans on what to do with it. I thought of giving it away but seeing how high the prices are for the console, I was tempted.

I posted about it and asked if there were any takers. My aunt saw my post and told me that my cousin has been asking for one a really long time. She asked me if I could give him the console instead. I told her that they're going for alot higher than the retail price at the moment and I can't just give it away.

She said I was being selfish and I already had 1. She told me I could just keep the new set and give him the old one. I was pretty firm and told her I'm planning on selling it.

A few days later she called me up and told me she wanted to buy it from me but at $300. She said I would still be earning some money and since it was free, it should be enough. I had several offers at the price I listed so it was really hard for me. I explained that people were offering much higher than her and no one would offer any discounts for a brand new set now.

She lashed out at me for a really long time. Said that I was throwing family out the window for money and that my cousin would be extremely disappointed. She asked me why I even joined a competition for a PS5 when I had one and deprived someone else of it.

My aunt is a single mum and I know they aren't doing too well financially. I know that they definitely wouldn't be able to afford buying it at retail price. By not giving/selling it to them, my cousin will probably not be able to get one anytime soon.

I have a really good relationship with my cousin and I know it would have meant alot to him but being able to earn $600-700 more is quite a significant amount.
submitted by giver-of-playstation to AmItheAsshole [link] [comments]

New GME member orientation before blast off: The squeeze has not been squoze (💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀)

This is a compilation DD for you new simps out there trying to become chad GME investors and grow 1/1000th the dick that DeepFuckingValue has. This post will cover the basics of how we got here and answer some of your simmering questions that I see flooding daily discussions.

TLDR: Hold the line and buy the dip give the glorious finger to these greedy corporates. Remember 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

GameStop History Lesson:

tldr: GME bumbles about like a senile boomer and dabbles in terrible bets. Turns into undervalued stock with cultural significance, gets picked up by Big Dick Burry and Ryan Chewy Cohen.
GME is a childhood dream that turns any grown man into an autist as soon as he walks into the door. Now due to our Lady Rona (covid), a bunch of past Boomer business decisions (GME fucking bough 507 AT&T stores in 2014, not pivoting into omni-channel, largely misssing the gaming industry explosion, and a CEO who prides himself on brick and morter Advance auto parts, Best Buy, Target, Home depot) GME by and large was shitting the bed as investors thought of this company as neglected mallfront with dwindling clientele.

In comes Michael big dick Burry
With the stock trading at $3.78/share in August 2019 investers were sure it was finished. But here's where it gets interesting. With big dick energy seemingly out of no where Michael Burry (yes that dude in the Big Short who seems like a fellow autist) buys 2,750,000 shares or 3.05% of GameStock. In his actual letter to the board (yes I dug it up so you can read it as well) he describes the thought process for the purchase bullets below.

(Taking a break to say, it's not too late the squeeze has not been squoze oblig 💎🙌 = 🚀🚀)

Ryan mega dick Cohen writes a letter
Then in Nov 16th 2020, Ryan Cohen comes in swinging and tears a new one to the board members of GameStop. For people who don't know who Ryan Cohen is, he stuck the finger to Amazon and built a digital e-commerce site) (wiki link) for fucking dogs and cats into a $3.35 billion entity by 2017. Keep in mind that he submitted a Schedule 13D to purchase 121,644 shares at $6.56 per and 163,030 at $8.63 - that's a 10% stake (yes, I've also dug the original Schedule 13d using google). Now Ryan's letter reads like a solid talking down that might rival the Queen - looking at you TheCrownNetflix, AskUK.
I've included Ryan's letter to the board but will bullet point paraphrase below for you folks still on Yahoo or Ask Jeeves.

Ryan mega dick Cohen and team join GameStop board
In January 2021 Ryan Cohen, Alan Attal, and Jim Grube join GME's board. Now for those of you in the bread line or living at your wife's mothers house playing DnD with her boyfriend, board changes are big news. These board members have the power to make multiple grown men cry, fire CEOs like it's nothing and change a companies strategy sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.
With Papa Cohen coming onboard and his squad of Chewy troopers, it's likely that we are going to soon see a pimped out GameStop that will make you name your first born "GME". Now I'll let you do your own digging and reading but here's just some of the GME DD on it's future potential (link to DD on some of GME's possible pivots, One DD to rule them all)

The squeeze has NOT been squoze:

There is still time for you to convince your wife's girlfriend to lend you money to buy GME. The squeeze has not been squoze and likely wont until we see the type of eruption that accompanied belledelphineXmas leaks (yes that sub is NSFW).
Side note on the Squeeze, GME is still massively over shorted at estimates from 130-300% and counting. The important thing to know is that these greedy bastards took multiple short positions on a single stock (naked) and essentially bet that GME was going to go down.
https://financhill.com/most-heavily-shorted-stocks-today (249.67% Shorted)

But what happened on Thursday/Friday?
Gamma squeeze. Short and simple. Now you can read some other DD about what a gamma squeeze so I wont dive into it too much.
It was not the squeeze. Market makers needed to rush to fill calls that were In The Money. This prompted these market makers to buy up stock in the off chance that they needed to actually sell them to degens who were actually betting that GME would blow it's sweet load at 60 and now at 150 lolz. This pared with the low stock volume on the market makes for high volitility on a per stock basis. Here's some DD links talking about what a Gamma squeeze what we witnessed was that.

Ok MallCop2020, but when will it Squeeze? (when it does squeeze it may squeeze multiple times)
Thanks to fellow autist u/tsukune_surprise (and no, CNBC I don't even know this person - they could be a robot or even a fucking dog with a cybor implant IDK!) BUT I love their DD for the MOASS (Mother of All Short Squeeze). Short answer is that it could be this week, could be next but it's hard to say when the big banks are using dirty tricks like naked call ladders, actual bail outs lolz. (Fresh DD from another internet stranger on GME EndGame Part 3)
EVERY SINGLE indicator shows massive upward momentum on GME.
GME momentum is going to create a massive upward feedback loop. The combination of options gamma squeeze, available float, and short interest makes it impossible for shorters to escape.
Normally, shorters deep underwater could hedge their losses by buying call options.
But buying call options decreases the float and the only tightens the squeeze. It’s like fighting against quicksand for the shorters.
This GME squeeze is going to be historic because of the compounding effect of options and short interest.
This could be bigger than the VW/Porsche infinity squeeze. But it’s completely different from VW – so don’t draw too many comparisons.

Okay, I've asked my wife's girlfriend nicely and now have $1k...
Buy fucking shares. No legit, support your random internet brethren (who don't know each other) and buy shares of GameStop. Every share you buy bleeds money from Citron and Melvin.
Here's an explanation from u/robert1032010 a Hedge Fund Manager on the current short position within GME: (A hedge fund managers perspective on GME)
The short positions of this issue appears (although I can't be certain) to exceed 100% with all available shares already lent out from marginal accounts and probably a lot of naked shorting going on as well. Although I don't yet have the current data on todays short position, I can say for certain the stock remains very heavily shorter, perhaps more so now than at any previous time. Today, I called my broker asking about the availability of shares to short and the borrow costs. We have one of the larger accounts at our brokers firm and I was able to speak directly to the "hard to borrow" desk. No borrowable shares are available at any broker, anywhere, at this time, even for high borrow costs or even from other brokers. This extreme short against a small common float, made more extreme no-doubt by naked shorting, could end very poorly for those short this issue. As they are forced to close out their positions, the stock will continue to rise and continue to exacerbate the positive effects the rising price has on the above 4 issues.

Lastly, this is not financial advice; do your own DD. I'm holding $20k at $100/share and yes, I still fucking believe that the tendieman will come and rain tendies.
Oblig:
💎🙌 = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
submitted by mallcop2020 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

For anyone who has not been paying attention

The HF’s are fucked. They are in over their heads. The HF’s need to buy all of the shares that they have shorted. As things stand they are running out of opportunity to limit the damage...volume is at a 10th right now compared to as it was over a week ago. All of the diamond-handed apes here and across the world are on message and are HOLDing their shares.
HF’s only way out of this is if impatient, paper-handed bitches sell too early, believing all of the fake news, smoke and mirrors, shills and bots. But nobody is selling. We have weeded the weak ones out and as you can see here we have an amazing, strong community supporting each other and keeping morale up high.
All HF’s have been doing since the last reporting period of SI% is shorting more and more hoping that their diversion tactics mentioned above spikes a fire sale...do you not think that it’s odd that no positive threads are allowed on WSB? It has been infiltrated by HF’s with the sole aim of trying to get as many people to paper hand as possible. Be it either telling them that they are an idiot for investing GME, that it’s “over” and they need to sell or just promoting other stocks like NOK, BB, Weed stocks...Silver for fucks sake! All media outlets are running stories that everyone has lost money on GME and that’s it’s “over”...Bullshit! Nobody here has lost anything because to lose you have to sell and that is never, ever going to happen. Not one positive story is being run by the media regarding our fight against these crooked fucks. Not one of these well informed financial specialists wants to run a story on the most shorted company by far. Why not? The facts are there to see in the SI% data released...they will be there to see again at the next round of reporting when this figure will show an increase, but not one of these media outlets is on our side and will only report fake news because they are in the governments pockets, who benefit greatly from the HF’s...when this all goes tits up for the HF’s and they have to face the music there’s genuine potential that the HF will not be able to cover the cost leading to a government bailout...nobody wants the little man to win this.
So what do we need to do?
Just what we have been doing this whole time...BUYing more and HOLDing on to what we already have. Staying strong in our convictions knowing that we are in an incredible position and that the HF’s will do anything to get us to sell because this is their only way out.
Keep supporting each other, keep looking out for shills and bots, for fake news in the media and where there is darkness and shadiness bring light to it so all can see it for what it really is.
In the short term the HF’s don’t need to do anything. They are bleeding big interest for their short positions everyday, but this is by far the lesser of 2 evils for now...they have crunched the numbers and they would have given them self a time limit for how long this tactic is financially their best option and throughout this period they will be trying every under handed tactic to get you to sell. HOLD!
We have many possibilities for a squeeze in the future with DFV in court next week, the next round of SI% revealing again just how fucked the HF’s are, GameStop’s financials for the busy Christmas period and launch of new PS and X Box consoles.
Medium and long term the company is in great hands and has a great vision, recently acquiring people with a proven track record of making successful businesses.
Stay strong my fellow apes! HOLD and where possible BUY more 💎🤲🏻
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
submitted by Intelligent-Celery79 to GME [link] [comments]

AMD Complete Stock Analysis & Price Target Prediction

In this post we are going to go through an in-depth analysis of AMD, we are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF, do a little technical analysis and set some price targets for the near future and for the long term
~Very Long Post~ [Do NOT Read if you don't like comprehensive analysis]
Hello everyone! Let’s start by talking a little about AMD, they are one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world, and they operate in multiple segments like Computing, Gaming, Enterprise, Semi-Custom and many more with some of the most important products for the company being microprocessors and GPUs both for personal use like (gaming consoles & PCs) while also offering products for professional use like data centers.
The company was founded more than 50 years ago and have more than 11K employees, with the company overperforming recently as they have seen a more than 80% rise in the last year.
So, guys, let’s go a little through the 4th quarter & yearly results for AMD. The company reported a revenue of $3.24B in the 4th quarter, with a 53% growth since last year, while for the full year they earned almost $10B as they more than doubled they quarterly and full year net income, which resulted in a $1.29 earnings/share for the year.
The company has 2 major income segments in Computing & Graphics which brought in sales of over $6.4B for the year and an operating income of $1.26B and the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment which brought in $3.3B in revenues and almost $400M in operating income. They also provide an additional segment that doesn’t bring in any revenues but which represents costs that can’t be associated with any of the other 2 segments, but also includes stock-based compensations and acquisitions related costs.
Both of these 2 segments have seen huge increases in the past year with operating income doubling for the computing & graphics segment and increasing by almost 50% for the EEC segment.
AMD didn’t have such a big capital expenditure in 2020, with only $294M but this can increase depending on the demand of their products while they also adjusted their income with $312M in depreciation & amortizations. Both of these numbers have increased by 40 to 50% in the past years and will be important in the DCF valuation.
They have also managed to increase the gross profit margin to 45%, up 2% from 2019 as their earnings before interest & tax or EBIT stood at $1.37B.
The company has seen a continued earnings per share growth overall, despite the first 2 quarters of 2020 coming in lower than previous, but that was to be expected as this was impacted by the reduced revenues in Q1 & Q2 before things started to pick up back again, as they finished with a huge increase overall in the 4th quarter.
Their product portfolio has become a great challenge to Intel’s market share and is continuing to evolve, as Intel is still struggling to regain momentum with their products.
AMD announced the world’s best processors for laptop and an enterprise variant that is expected to be available in the first half of 2021.
They have also launched the fastest AMD gaming graphics card ever while also working with big companies like Amazon on their AWS cloud offerings & Microsoft Azure which are planning to use their upcoming 3rd generation EPYC processors.
AMD is also involved in supercomputers which indicates that they are continuing to innovate and develop products that will be in high demand for the foreseeable future
The one big thing that can propel AMD even more in the future is the proposed acquisition or more rather merger with Xilinx , which also beat earnings expectations the other day, with revenues of over $800M for the quarter and a Free Cash Flow of 44% of their revenues. Xilinx has a market cap of over $32B, and the combination of the 2 companies would create synergies. They are targeting an all-stock transaction which will have implications on my projections, but as time has gone, the $35B price tag is only a 10% premium for Xilinx. The one hurdle the companies have to pass is the regulatory procedures. We will have to wait and see if the deal goes through or not, as it’s expected the deal should be finished by the end of the year, with AMD shareholders retaining 74% of the new group shares and Xilinx holding the remaining 26%.
AMD also offered great guidance for 2021 as they expect the strength of their product portfolio to push AMD revenues up 37% over 2020 and also expect their gross margin to increase to 47%, while they expect an effective tax rate for next year of 15%, well belove the 21% US corporate tax rate.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates and expectations. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on…
So, let’s start with the Unleveraged discounted free cash flow projections to see what the current valuation of the company is.
I used their total revenues projections that we will discuss later on in the long-term projection and the net income for 2020 to which I added back the Depreciation & Amortization costs they had in 2020 and got to a $1.68B EBITDA.
For the next years I used 1% increase in EBIT margin which I think they can achieve pretty easy and an increase in capex of 10%/year in order to maintain an increased production capacity while also applying a 15% decrease in their net working capital.
So, for an 8% discount rate, which is pretty much the Average SP500 return, we get a $9.7B Discounted Free Cash Flow by 2025.
Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for both of them we do have to subtract or add the net assets or debt, which in this case stands $5.75B in assets. I personally think a use of the average is better suited for most companies, though some of the companies trade largely on the EBITDA approach and other on the growth approach.
If we use the growth approach, we can see that AMD is pretty fairly valued right now, as this implies a loss of 2%, while on the other hand the EBITDA multiple approach gives us a valuation of over $112, meaning an almost 30% undervaluation of the company. But as I said, I think a use of the average is best, so, my current price target for AMD in 2021 is $98.82, implying a 13.5% return from the last price.
And now let’s move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for AMD.
For my projections I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream. I think we can continue to see 50% growth rate in the EEC segment for 2021 and then implying a gradual slowing of their growth, while for the Computing & Graphics segment I implied a 35% growth, way lower than the over 100% they saw in 2020, also implying a gradual slowdown of the trend by 2025.
I think these growth implications are pretty reasonable giving the high demand the company has seen for their entire product line, especially as gaming revenues have continued to increase, and also taking into account the need for their products in data centers, cloud usage & digital currency mining.
For their cost of sales, I started from the current ones which stand at 80% for the Computing & Graphics segment and implied a 1% improvement each year, while for the EEC segment I started from the 88% expense margin right now and implied a gradual 2% improvement. I also maintained their other expense regarding to the cost of sales to 3% of their total revenues, in-line with the previous years.
This means for 2025 we would get just over $33B in revenues and $26B in expenses, resulting in a gross profit of almost $7B. I also maintained the same capex as in the DCF and also substracted the interest & other expenses for which I implied a 5% annual growth, thus leading us to a $6.28B in earnings before tax.
I maintained their 15% effective tax rate projections and also diluted their shares by 1% each year accounting for some dilution in the stock.
So, for the $5.3B in 2025 revenues after tax and accounting for 1.27B shares, that would mean a $4.21 earnings/share, meaning the stock is trading at 20 times forward price to earnings for 2025.
I like to base my future projections on Forward/PE valuations so, with the current projected PE and depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 25 and 40, the stock can trade between $105 and almost $168.
So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets
I think the 2025 bear case price we can see AMD trade at is $115 which would imply a return of almost 33% , while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that AMD will trade at 137$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 57% return on the current price. But my most bullish case would see the company trading at $158, which would imply a return of over 81%. So yeah guys, these are my Overall price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 35 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 35-40.
So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for AMD by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
I think these are pretty reasonable targets, as the semiconductors industry will keep on booming in the next decade, as the world will need more & more chips that also keep advancing in technology.
The company also has very good financials, with almost $9B in assets vs just $3.1B in total liabilities, which can be easily paid by just the current assets.
And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can only see EPS estimates until 2023 of $3.22, which I think is safe to say can grow an additional dollar by 2025, so my projections are pretty in-line with what other experts anticipate.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for AMD?
Let’s look at this CHART, the stock just broke below the long-term uptrend but has seen good support at the $86-87 levels, which is where the next support should stand. We saw AMD pushing towards $100 in the beginning of the year, but it hit major resistance once Intel also announced a change in their leadership, as they brought in the WMWare CEO Gelsinger, but it’s very hard to see him turn around Intel in a very short time. Intel will need some years & a lot of capital expenditure to turn things around, if they do manage to do it at all.
AMD hasn’t been overbought since August, and currently has an RSI near 41, which is pretty oversold for a good company, so I expect to see them regaining some momentum in the near-term, but I guess the market is very busy with the current short-squeezes. AMD will se a lot of resistance breaking through the $100 level, not because of something fundamental with the company, but I guess it’s a psychological resistance rather.
And let’s take a quick look at what 24 analysts on Wall Street are saying. They mostly have a buy call on the company with an average price target of $100 and a high price target of $135. So, I think the analyst are pretty spot on with AMD, but my PT are slightly lower as it’s always better to undershoot and overperform rather than the other way around.
So, what would I do? Well, I own AMD stock and I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position right now and add on any weakness, and I would especially buy more if the stock drops even lower than 80$.
One last thing to mention about AMD is that they also have a very big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 74% of the float being held by big funds like Vanguard & Blackrock which does significantly reduce the sell-off possibilities.
So, this are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Lisa SU has done a terrific job since becoming the CEO, and has driven AMD to a renewed approach to their business, as the company has been booming in the past 5 years, growing more than twice as much as Nvidia and crushing the SP500 and Intel’s performance.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to stocks [link] [comments]

where to sell my game console video

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Best Selling Game Console (1972-2020) - YouTube

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where to sell my game console

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