Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 02/07/2021 Super Bowl LV Betting Odds, Picks and NFL Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 02/07/2021 –Big-time Super Bowl betting takes centerstage as Patrick Mahomes and the back-to-back seeking Kansas City Chiefs go up against the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, February 7. The action starts at 6:30 PM ET at Tampa’s home field, the Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers have a sure edge in terms of home turf but opening lines pick the Chiefs as three-point favorites to win the NFL’s grandest stage for the second consecutive year. Visit: https://www.betnow.eu/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-vs-tampa-bay-buccaneers-02-07-2021-super-bowl-lv-betting-odds-picks-and-nfl-predictions/
Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing. Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack. Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other. The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look. This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games. This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night. If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night. The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air. Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities. At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night. For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993. The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league. The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense. Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts. Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones. The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss. EDGE: Bills 👏 Why We Will Lose The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2. On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory. Why We Will Win The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL. On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years. Prediction:Bills 27 – Ravens 24 This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.
Simulating the NFL playoffs to price Super Bowl Futures
After a full 256 game NFL season, the playoffs have finally arrived. Unique from other major sports, the NFL playoffs do not feature a traditional bracket. Instead, the NFL is structured so that the highest seed in each conference plays the lowest remaining seed in the same conference. For example – as the #1 seed in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers will face the lowest remaining seed after this weekend. Depending how the games shake out, this could be the Los Angeles Rams, Washington or Tampa Bay. The other two remaining teams in the NFC will play each other. To accommodate for this added complexity and assess the likelihood of each team winning the Super Bowl, we turn to the Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations are an excellent tool to assess the likelihood of events happening when you are faced with a series of complex interactions or path dependent scenarios. To estimate the probability of each team winning the Super Bowl, I simulated the playoffs 10,000 times using my Power Rankings that I developed for betting during the NFL season. (Note: in addition to my Power Rankings, I rely on empirical data to convert the Power Rankings into a win probability. This is a topic for another day, but I would be remiss if I did not mention this.) Although I have the Chiefs as one of the favorites, I am not nearly as high on them as the betting markets. I give them a 20% chance (+397) of winning while many sportsbooks have them around +200 (which requires a 33.3% win probability to break even). I'm also low on the Buffalo Bills relative to the market, and they are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment: Estimated Super Bowl Win Probabilities So what is a good bet? Well – generally I see the most value on the Saints (widely available at +800) and Ravens (widely available at +1000) who (unsurprisingly) rank #1 and #2 in my Power Rankings. If you’re in the mood for a long shot, you could do worse than the Colts (available at +5000). I’ve converted my estimated win probabilities into odds below:
Team
Odds
Kansas City Chiefs
+397
Green Bay Packers
+432
New Orleans Saints
+471
Baltimore Ravens
+694
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+926
Buffalo Bills
+1503
Seattle Seahawks
+1827
Indianapolis Colts
+3674
Pittsburgh Steelers
+3806
Cleveland Browns
+7043
Los Angeles Rams
+8303
Tennessee Titans
+8750
Washington Football Team
+21177
Chicago Bears
+26216
How strong is this model? It’s important to note that the above percentages represent my raw predictions and don’t include any market data. While my EPA model has been strong thus far, no model is perfect, and every model can benefit from weighing the market odds. How should we bet these? SHOP. SHOP. SHOP. In futures markets, it is extremely important to get the best available line. THIS CANNOT BE OVERSTATED. Futures markets have notoriously high vig – so we must chip away at this vig by getting the best odds available. Case in point: across nine offshore sportsbooks, the average hold for Super Bowl futures is 17.4%. The synthetic hold for the best line at these nine sportsbooks: 6.9%. Add in the best available lines at the legal books in Colorado and the synthetic hold drops to 0.7%! How much should we bet? My partner and I have already wagered over $1.0 million on the NFL this season, with successful results, and I'm confident in my numbers. However, you should always respect the market and recognize that no model is perfect and the market always prices in considerations your model may fail to take into account. Longshots of this nature only comprise a small amount of our portfolio. As a result, I don't recommend betting more than 0.5% of your bankroll on any futures bet.
Looking at the Hometown Locations of the Competitors to Predict Super Bowl LV
Hello, everyone! Just the bored MTV Challenge fan again! As many of you know, the National Football League(NFL) here in the United States of America(USA) has Super Bowl LV this evening at 5:30 CST. The game will determine the champions of the NFL. The game will be between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs just won last season, and are looking to be the first team since the 2003-04-2004-05 New England Patriots to repeat in the NFL as Super Bowl winners. They are in the midst of what's becoming to be a dynasty. On the other hand, the Buccaneers are looking for their first Super Bowl Title in 18 years, making them the clear underdogs. So, what did I do to predict this game? Well, a lot of things, but for this show, I decided to do something a little fun. I went through the "hometown" of every competitor in the history of this show, and figured out which team they would represent in the Super Bowl, based on hometown location. The competitor whose hometowns are in the region of the fandom territory of each team will represent their team in the Super Bowl. I didn’t base this on their actual fandom. For instance, if a competitor grew up in Kansas City, Missouri, but was never a Chiefs fan, I’m still picking that competitor to represent the Chiefs, because that’s where their hometown was located. I also had to be clever, and pick slightly outside parameters of the actual cities themselves. The Chiefs play in Kansas City, Missouri, and the Buccaneers play in Tampa, Florida, but they clearly have a location-based fandom outside of those cities(and of course, a bandwagon fandom). I didn’t analyze the map of the USA too much because I didn’t want to over complicate things. The Chiefs fandom ranges from Central to Western Missouri, Southern Iowa, Southeastern Nebraska, and Eastern Kansas. The Buccaneers fandom is much more simple: It’s the cross midsection of Florida-Eastern Central Florida, the center of Florida, and even Eastern Central Florida(the Northern, and Southern portions of Florida are Jaguars, and Dolphins fandoms respectively). Once again, this doesn't include all of the bandwagon, and/or Quarterback fans who live all over the USA(and world). Before the Super Bowl, some competitors were eliminated representing their team throughout the playoffs. If you want the full list of these competitors, you’ll have to message me. Some notable competitors eliminated in the first round(Wild Card) Round were David Edwards(representing the Washington Football Team), Derrick Kosinski, and Brad Fiorenza(representing the Chicago Bears), Tonya Cooley(representing the Seattle Seahawks), M.J. Garrett(representing the Tennessee Titans), Emily Bender(representing the Indianapolis Colts), and Timmy Beggy, as well as Susie Meister(representing the Pittsburgh Steelers). Then, some notable competitors eliminated in the second round(Division Round) were Ty Ruff(representing the Baltimore Ravens), The Miz, and Beth Stolarczyk(representing the Cleveland Browns), Theo Von, whose poor soul was left to drag Trishelle Cannatella(representing the New Orleans Saints), and Amber Borzotra(representing the Los Angeles Rams). Some notable competitors eliminated in the third round(Conference Championship Round) were Theresa Jones, and Landon Lueck(representing the Green Bay Packers), and Frank Sweeney, and Nany Gonzalez(representing the Buffalo Bills). Oddly enough, we didn't see the New England Patriots in the postseason this season. So, we didn't get to see Chris "CT" Tamburello, or Cara Maria Sorbello represent the Pats this time. Better luck next year. Now, the Super Bowl has boiled down to these competitors representing each team in the Super Bowl. They are… Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark Long(Satellite Beach, Florida)-Satellite Beach is on the opposite side of Florida, but still in the mid-section of Florida. Mark is Tom Brady for today: 49 years old, shooting an “OG Challenge Season”, yet, still the Godfather, a legend, and won’t be defeated just because he’s “old. Jisela Delgado(Tampa, Florida)-I guess the Kicker? Melissa Beck(Tampa, Florida)-She’s better at barking orders, so she’ll be Bruce Arians, even if she isn’t as good as she thought. Christena Pyle(Tampa, Florida)-Chris Godwin. Linette Gallo(Palmetto, Florida)-I guess she’s our Mike Evans(why not?) Fessy Shafaat(Orlando, Florida)-Fessy will be our Devin White. Kansas City Chiefs Wes Bermann(Leawood, Kansas)-It’s uncanny how much Wes looks like Patrick Mahomes II, because he gets to represent Mahomes today for the Super Bowl. Wes is a legend, and Mahomes is a legend in the making. Dan Renzi(Overland Park, Kansas)-He’s our Sammy Watkins. Welcome back, Dan! Sylvia Elsrode(Kansas City, Missouri) Bayleigh Dayton(Kansas City, Missouri)-She seems to like controlling, and barking orders, so she’s our Andy Reid. Steve Meinke(Leavenworth, Kansas)-One of the random guys on the Special Teams nobody knows, and/or everyone forgot about. Tina Bridges(Lincoln, Nebraska)-Tina can probably break some tackles, so she’s our Travis Kelce. Tyrie Ballard(Lincoln, Nebraska)-One of the replacement Offensive Linemen for the Chiefs today. Camila Nakagawa(Lincoln, Nebraska)-I could see Camila being quick, and nimble, so she’s our Tyreek Hill. Larissa Nakagawa(Lincoln, Nebraska) Laura Weander(Omaha, Nebraska) Everyone else just has random positions on the field(don’t feel like going through all of them). Let’s do a side by side statistical breakdown of the teams. The Chiefs have more competitors representing them, so to be fair, I’ll exclude the Nebraska competitors, since it’s a bit of a stretch to consider Nebraska “Chiefs Territory). This will make there only be one more competitors for the Buccaneers in our statistical breakdown. Elimination Match Record: Chiefs(22-12) Buccaneers(3-4) The Chiefs clearly win. The Buccaneers don’t have much Elimination Match experience. Challenge Victories(non-final): Chiefs-59 Buccaneers-61 Buccaneers edge out the Chiefs, granted, I’m doing this with one extra Buccaneers competitor. Disqualifications(career): Chiefs-0 Buccaneers-0 Neither team has controversial, and/or foolish people to get disqualified due to injuries, or fighting, except for Tina, and Camila(who aren't part of our statistical breakdown). Final Challenge Appearances: Chiefs-8 Buccaneers-6 The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers here, mainly thanks to Wes. Season Victories: Chiefs-3 Buccaneers-3 We have another tie, but like I said before, the Buccaneers have one extra player in this statistical breakdown. If you include Camila, this number increases to five for the Chiefs. Conclusion: Once you factor in Camila, Tina, Larissa, and Laura(who weren’t included in the statistical breakdown), the Chiefs should win in a blowout. Sorry Mark Brady(or Tom Long), but you won’t overcome Wes Mahomes II(or Patrick Bergmann). The Chiefs will win based on this highly credible statistical breakdown, and analysis.
Game Preview Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) vs Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
The Jalen Hurts era started in Philly with a bang as the Eagles knocked off the number 1 seed Saints being a strong rushing attack led by Hurts and Miles Sanders. The defense was the real winner in this game as they completely shut down the Saints offense for most of the game. But the win came at a cost, Rodney McLeod tore his MCL and will be out for the season and a number of other defenders left the game and will be questionable going into the game this week. The Eagles also lost starting RT Jack Driscoll for the remainder of the season to a MCL sprain.The Eagles with their rookie QB at the helm will travel to Arizona this week to take on the Arizona Cardinals who need a win to stay close in the playoff hunt. The loss of McLeod will be felt as the Cardinals come in with an impressive passing attack led by Kylar Murray and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. Jim Schwartz will need to come up with a game plan to shutdown the Cardinals big time WRs with a banged up secondary. At the same time they will need to slow down the Cardinals running game where Murray is also dangerous, but Kenyon Drake is the real threat. The Eagles will also unfortunately still be fighting for a playoff spot by winning the NFCE shitpile, but will be eliminated this week with a Washington win and an Eagles loss. Here is to an injury free game.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Cardinals Radio
Arizona Sports (98.7 FM) is the flagship station of the Cardinals Radio Network.Dave Pasch handles the play-by-play duties, Cardinals FB Ron Wolfley provides color commentary for the Cardinals.
November 10, 1935 at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL. Chicago Cardinals 12 - Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Arizona/St.Louis/Chicago Cardinals (719-680)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 vs. the Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury: 0-0 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Pederson vs Kingsbury: First Meeting of the coaches.
Quarterback Record
Jalen Hurts: Against Cardinals 0-0
Kylar Murrayl: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Jalen Hurts vs Kylar Murray: This will be the first matchup between the QBs in the NFL
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead: 3-2
Record @ State Farm Stadium: Cardinals leads series: 3-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 23 - Cardinals No. 14
2020 Record
Eagles: 4-8-1
Cardinals 7-6
Last Meeting
Sunday, October 8th, 2017
Eagles 34 - Cardinals 7
The Eagles scored early and often in this game, for their first blowout win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Wentz found tight ends Trey Burton and Zach Ertz for early touchdowns, and later connected with wide receiver Torrey Smith for a 59-yard touchdown to finish the first quarter. Following Smith's touchdown, the Eagles unveiled their baseball home run celebration for the first time all season. The closest the Cardinals came was in the second quarter when they trailed 21–7 following a John Brown 13-yard touchdown. In the mid third quarter, on 3rd and 19, Wentz found wide receiver Nelson Agholor for a 72-yard touchdown pass, on which Agholor juked rookie safety Budda Baker and finished the play with the Nestea Plunge. The final score was 34–7, and Wentz threw for four touchdowns, including three first quarter touchdown passes.
Cardinals MLB Jordan Hicks was drafted in the 3rd round in 2015 NFL Draft and played 4 seasons with the Eagles.
Cardinals LB Hassan Reddick is from Camden NJ, and attended college at Temple in Philadelphia.
Cardinals RB James Saxon played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Cardinals LB Coach Billy Davis served as defensive coordinator of the Eagles from 2013-2015.
Eagles S Rudy Ford played two seasons with the Cardinals from 2017-2018.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Cardinals
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
WR DeAndre Hopkins(Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
OLB Chandler Jones (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
FS Budda Baker (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
General
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Jalen Hurts started his first career game in Week 14 vs. New Or-leans, leading the Eagles to a 24-21 victory over the 10-2 Saints. Hurts, the Eagles’ youngest starting QB since Jack Concannon in 1964, became the second QB in NFL history to beat a team on a 9+ game winning streak in their starting debut, joining Ron Jawor-ski (12/20/75 vs. Pittsburgh with L.A. Rams - snapped Steelers’ 11-game streak). He also became the first NFL QB since 1950 to throw a TD pass and rush for 100+ yards in their first start.
Miles Sanders (746 rushing yards, 5 TDs), ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (5.7), behind Nick Chubb (5.9) (min. 125 attempts). In Week 14 vs. New Orleans, Sanders recorded an 82-yard rushing TD, marking the 4th-longest rushing play in Eagles history. He is the first NFL RB with 3 rushes of 70+ yards in the same season since 2012, when Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson each accomplished the feat.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL with 43.0 sacks, trail-ing only Pittsburgh (45.0). Since Week 10, Fletcher Cox ranks 1st among NFL DTs with 4.0 sacks, while Javon Hargrave is tied for 2nd with Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams with 3.5 sacks.
Dallas Goedert is one of three NFL TEs with 250+ receiving yards (261) and 2+ TDs (2) since Week 11, joining Travis Kelce (481 yards, 3 TDs) and Darren Waller (386 yards, 3 TDs).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Cardinals
WR Jalen Raegor
OLB Isiah Simmons
QB Jalen Hurts
OT Josh Jones
LB Davion Taylor
DT Leki Fotu
S K’Von Wallace
LB Kamal Martin
OT Jack Driscoll
DT Rashard Lawrence
WR John Hightower
LB Evan Weaver
LB Shaun Bradley
RB Eno Benjamin
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Cardinals
DT Javon Hargrave
WR DeAndre Hopkins
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
DT Jordan Phillips
CB Darius Slay
LB Devon Kennard
LB De’Vondre Campbell
DT Trevon Coley
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Cardinals
S Malcom Jenkins
RB David Johnson
CB Ronald Darby
DE Rodney Gunter
RB Jordan Howard
DT Cassius Marsh
WR Nelson Agholor
DT Zach Kerr
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
DT Cararun Reid
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
CB Bradon Williams
RB Darren Sproles
WR Pharoh Cooper
DT Timmy Jernigan
WR Damiere Byrd
LB Nigel Bradham
LB Joe Walker
OT William Sweat
Milestones
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Eagles TE Zach Ertz needs 40 yards for 6000 career receiving yards.
Food for Thought
The 1948 Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Cardinals Championship Bout
Eagles fans recall Super Bowl LII with wonder and relish in it. These days, that date seems so very long ago, but there was another magical Championship game I’d like to remind you of, as the Eagles and Cardinals face off (and the Northeast just got a snow dump), the Eagles’ first championship. Sure, this team the Eagles will face is not the Chicago Cardinals or the St. Louis Cardinals or the Phoenix Cardinals, but it’s the same franchise of course. As far as snowy games, fans typically recall the Eagles’ fun snow game of 2013 against the Lions in which players made snow angels in the endzone, but there was an even more memorable one, one which Eagles RB Steve Van Buren didn’t even think was going to take place. With a blizzard harrowing Philadelphia: “I was sure they wouldn’t be able to play and went back to bed,” Van Buren told [Joe Jonas]. “Then, ‘Greasy’ (coach Earle Neale) called and told me the game was on and to get a move on. I had to take a trolley, then the El, and then a second trolley. When that trolley bogged down in the snow, I had to walk down Lehigh Avenue through the drifts about two miles to the park. I got there just a couple of minutes before the kickoff.” source. Van Buren and the Eagles proceeded to run amok all over the Cardinals that fateful day. Where the Cardinals managed 34 rushes for 96 yards, Van Buren led the Eagles to a 57 for 225 line day (let’s disregard Eagles QB Tommy Thompson stumbling toward a 0.0 passer rating: 2/12 for 7 yards and 2 INTs). Despite the Eagles controlling the game--in fact, the Eagles scored on the 1st play of the game, but it was called back for Offsides--it wasn’t until a minute left in the 4th that either team scored, a 5 yard rush by Van Buren. In victory, the Eagles exacted revenge on the Cardinals for losing the championship matchup the year prior 28-21.
Matchups to Watch
Arizona rushing attack vs the Eagles front seven
The Eagles have repeatedly struggled this season with teams who have mobile quarterbacks, who are able to escape the pocket. They did well last week against Taysom Hill, however this week they will take on Kylar Murray who is a lot closer to Lamar Jackson than Taysom Hill. The Eagles gave up 100 yards and a TD when they faced Jackson this season.again Like Jackson, Kylar Murray has the ability to break off big runs, as he is second to Jackson in rushing yards by a QB this season. Murray has over 700 rushing yards and a league leading 10 rushing TDs by a QB this season. Pair that with the impressive running attack of Kenyon Drake and the Eagles front seven will have their hands full on Sunday. With a talented receiving corp of the Cardinals the Eagles will not be able to stack the box and it will be on the front seven to keep contain and stay in the lanes to keep Murray and Drake in check. If they don’t and allow the Cardinals to establish the run look for the Cardinals to pound the run and look for a big play off play-action to one of their talented WRs.
Eagles banged up secondary vs the talented receiving corp of the Cardinals
In their win over the Saints, the Eagles lost their two best players in the secondary in safety Rodney McLeod and CB Darius Slay. McLeod unfortunately tore his MCL and will miss the remainder of the season and Slay suffered a concussion and while he has progressed through the protocol he has not been cleared as of the time of this writing. If Slay misses the game the Eagles will most likely lean on Avonte Maddox to cover All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins which is not good news for the Eagles. Last time the Maddox was asked to cover an All-Pro he was absolutely torched by Davante Adams. Hopkins is also questionable for the game, but is trending towards playing.Eagles DC Jim Schwartz will need to get creative with his coverages and hope his front four can continue to wreak havoc like they did last week where Hill was under constant pressure. If given time, Murray will cut up this secondary and have some big plays against the Eagles backups.
Jalen Hurts and Doug Pederson vs Vance Joseph
Cardinals’ defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will have the job of stopping the Eagles rookie QB who ran all over the Saints number one ranked defense last week. Doug Pederson said earlier this week that the Eagles simply shot themselves in the foot in the second half against the Saints, but rewatching the game it looks like the Saints made some adjustments at halftime that were effective in slowing down and confusing the rookie QB. Unlike the Saints, Joseph will have a full game tape to review and prepare for Hurts. Of course, Pederson and Eagles know what they put out on film too and will have to adjust to how they played in the second half against the Saints. It’ll be up to them to have a counterpunch ready to go depending on how the Cardinals play the rookie quarterback. Hurts was far more effective with his legs than his arm against the Saints, so I would not be surprised to see Joseph put a spy on Hurts to limit his ability to run. If the Cardinals do spy him, it will most likely go to former Eagles Jordan Hicks who is extremely athletic for an LB and should be able to match Hurts speed and athleticism. With the spy that’s one less player in coverage, which should open some up some things in the passing game if Hurts can take advantage of it. The Eagles have a lot of offensive coaches on the staff and it is their job to put him in the best position to be successful, but that is something they have failed to do with a number of guys on the offense this year, so it remains to see if they can do it with Hurts when the other team is gameplanning for him. If they can and that is a big IF Hurts will still need to execute and continue to show the same poise he did last weekend.
Special thanks to abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
[Game Preview] Week 14 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-8-1) vs New Orleans Saints (10-2)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1) vs New Orleans Saints (10-2)
After another abysmal performance by the offense the Eagles are making a change at QB throwing rookie Jalen Hurts into the fire against the New Orleans Saints who have the number 1 defense in the league. While a change at QB may limit the turnovers from Wentz trying to play hero ball, it won’t fix the fundamental problems in the offense which are related to scheme and play calling. Some of those issues may be resolved if Doug does what was stated in his press conference which is something he has failed to do this entire season which is establish the run early to help his quarterback. If playcalling improves Hurts may have a chance, but if it does not he will be put in the same difficult position Wentz was in all season with the only advantage is that Hurts legs may buy him some time and get him out of the pocket to avoid sacks. If the Saints play their game they will most likely win their 3rd straight win against the Eagles dropping Pederson to 0-3 against them. Here’s to another Sunday filled with beers and sorrow. Go Birds!
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Saints Radio
WWL (870AM/105.3FM) is the flagship station of the Saints Radio Network. Former Saints offensive tackle Zach Strief handles the play-by-play duties, former Saints running back Deuce McAllister provides color commentary and Steve Geller is on the New Orleans sideline for all the contests.
National Radio
Compass Radio will carry the game nationally with Chris Carrino (play-by-play) and Brian Baldinger(analyst).
November 6, 1967 at Tulane Stadium, New Orleans, LA. New Orleans Saints 31 - Philadelphia Eagles 24
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the New Orleans Saints (719-680)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-2 vs. the Saints
Sean Payton: 7-2 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Pederon vs Payton: Payton leads 2-0.
Quarterback Record
Jalen Hurts: Against Saints 0-0
Taysom Hill: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Jalen Hurts vs Taysom Hill: This will be the first matchup between the QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Saints lead: 3-2
Record @ Mercedes Benz SuperDome: Saints leads series: 9-5
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 27 - Saints No. 3
2020 Record
Eagles: 3-9-1
Saints 10-2
Last Meeting
Sunday, January 13th, 2019
Saints 20 - Eagles 14
The Eagles traveled to New Orleans to face the Saints in a rematch of the Week 11 game which ended in a 48–7 rout in the Saints' favor. Despite jumping out to an early 14–0 first-quarter lead over the top-seeded Saints on touchdowns by Jordan Matthews and Nick Foles, the Eagles could not keep up the pace. New Orleans responded with 20 unanswered points over the final three quarters, including the eventual game-winning third-quarter touchdown pass from Drew Brees to Michael Thomas, to defeat the Eagles 20–14 and end Philadelphia's reign as Super Bowl Champions. The loss was just the second career postseason loss for Foles, the other being a 26–24 loss in the 2013 season, also to the Saints. New Orleans' victory over Philadelphia meant that, for the 14th straight season, a new Super Bowl champion would be crowned.
Saints HC Sean Payton worked as the QB Coach for the Eagles from 1997-1998 seasons.
Saints starting safety Malcom Jenkins played 6 seasons for the Eagles from 2014-2019 and won a Super Bowl with them in 2017.
Saints CB Patrick Robonsin played one season with the Eagles in 2017 and was a member of the Super Bowl Team.
Saints Senior Defensive Assistant Peter Giunta worked as the Eagles DB coach from 1991-1994.
Saints Assistant Special Teams coach Phil Gailano is originally from Philadelphia, PA and went to Norristown HS.
Eagles Personnel Consultant Darren Sproles played 3 seasons for the Saints from 2011-2013.
Eagles LB Coach Ken Fajole worked as the Saints DB coach in 2012.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Saints
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
QB Drew Brees
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
RB Alvin Kamara (1st Alt)
TE Zach Ertz
Wr Michael Thomas(Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
Te Jared Cook(1st Alt)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
OT Terron Armstead
G Andrus Peat (2nd Alt)
G Larry Warford (3rd Alt)
DE Cameron Jordan (Starter)
CB Marshon Lattimore (Starter)
K Will Lutz (Starter)
RS Deonte Harris (Starter)
General
Referee: Jerome Boger
Brandon Graham will appear in his 156th career regular-season game, surpassing Trent Cole (155, 2005-14) for the most games played by a defensive lineman in franchise history. Graham leads the Eagles in both sacks (7.0) and TFLs (12) this season.
Miles Sanders ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (5.4), behind Nick Chubb (6.0) (min. 100 attempts).
Dallas Goedert is one of only three NFL TEs with 200+ receiving yards (218) and 2+ TDs (2) since Week 11, joining Travis Kelce (345 yards, 2 TDs) and Darren Waller (311 yards, 3 TDs).
Fletcher Cox (53.5) is 1.0 sack shy of tying Hugh Douglas (54.5, 1998-2002, ‘04) for the 5th-most sacks in team history.
Javon Hargrave has recorded 15 tackles, 8 combined QB pres-sures and hits, 2 TFLs and 1.5 sacks dating back to Week 10.
In Week 13 at Green Bay, Jalen Reagor returned a punt 73 yards for a TD, marking the 3rd-longest punt return TD by an Eagles rookie, behind Damaris Johnson (98 yards, 12/2/12 at Dallas) and Ernie Steele (80 yards, lateral, 10/25/42 at Chicago).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Saints
WR Jalen Raegor
QB Jordan Love
QB Jalen Hurts
RB AJ Dillion
LB Davion Taylor
TE Josiah Deguara
S K’Von Wallace
LB Kamal Martin
OT Jack Driscoll
G Jon Runyan Jr.
WR John Hightower
C Jake Hanson
LB Shaun Bradley
G Simon Stepanick
WR Quez Watkins
FS Vernon Scott
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
DE Jonathan Garvin
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Saints
DT Javon Hargrave
S Malcom Jenkins
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
WR Emmanuel Sanders
CB Darius Slay
FB Michael Burton
DB Deatrick Nichols
QB Jameis Winston
RB Ty Montgomery
T James Hurst
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Saints
S Malcom Jenkins
LB Kiko Alonso
CB Ronald Darby
FB Zach Line
RB Jordan Howard
CB Eli Apple
WR Nelson Agholor
ILB Stephone Anthony
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
CB Vonn Bell
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
QB Teddy Bridgewater
RB Darren Sproles
WR Tedd Ginn Jr.
DT Timmy Jernigan
LB AJ Klein
LB Nigel Bradham
LB Manti Te’o
Milestones
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (53.5) needs 1 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Food for Thought
The Torment of Prometheus
The culturally and historically vibrant cities of Philadelphia have more in common than first appearances might suggest. Yes, one has proud French roots, while the other is known as the “Birthplace of American Democracy” while sprouts of British colonialism can be seen in Greater Philadelphian towns like Lower Gwynedd, Narberth, and North Wales. The two cities have more in common than quintessential sandwiches, in the Po’ Boy and the Cheesesteak. Many might not realize it, but a famous Greek Myth links the two; that which represents the torment Eagles fans are now enduring. For those unaware or needing a refresher of the myth, the Titan Prometheus stole and gifted fire to Humans, a symbol of intellectualism and civilization. As punishment, Zeus ordered him bound and sentenced him to an eternity of having his liver pecked by an eagle. Eventually, Zeus had Hercules kill the Eagle and free Prometheus so that he could aid Hercules in his quest to complete his own penance, the 12 Labors. There’s much more to it than that, but for our purposes that’s the extent to which we’ll be discussing the myth itself. Just know that a famous painting depicting this, Prometheus Bound, has been sitting in the Philadelphia Museum of Art since 1950. Cut to: We Eagles fans are Prometheus, enduring relentless torment as some sort of divine penance. Could it be for our passion, our fire? Could it be to take our hubris, as it pertains to our stellar collective Football intelligence, down a peg? *Note from the author: you should periodically remind yourself that the 97.5 and 94.1 callers are NOT representative and are largely folks that cry themselves to sleep in the bathtub every gameweek, scraping for any and every ounce of hope and reason and in doing so only emphasize their trauma psychosis. Could we have collectively used up all our karma to get that SBLII title? We may never know. Here’s looking to Lurie, the man ultimately responsible for forcing us into this torment, to bring in some new blood to rescue us from this nightmare. Oh Lurie, god of thunder, end our misery and rescue us. Have we not been punished enough? In 1814, the USS Prometheus was commissioned by the United States Navy, mostly serving to transport diplomats and survey land over its short lifespan. 4 years later, the ship was considered unseaworthy and got decommissioned, and made its funeral procession down to New Orleans. There, it was auctioned off to the highest bidder. Here we are, the Saints doing us a courtesy in at least saving us the trip down I-59 to be sold for parts. Allez Saints!
Matchups to Watch
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles Passing Attack vs. Saints Pass Defense
Talk about being thrown into the fire. Jalen Hurts will make his first start Sunday after Pederson benched Wentz against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Per Football Outsiders, the Saints defense is second in the NFL by DVOA. They are an impressive, well-coached unit that is deep at all levels and multiple. This would be a difficult test for an average QB, let alone a rookie QB in their first start on a bad team. Wentz earned his benching weeks ago so this is a formality at this point. Regression doesn’t do enough to describe the utter collapse in this play this season. Hurts is a more athletic QB that is more capable of making plays with his legs that adds a dimension to this offense and they will need it. The Eagles still possess one of the worst receiving rooms in the NFL. The Saints have a deep defense. Janoris Jenkins has found new life in the NOLA and is playing at a high level. Marshon Lattimore is also another great corner. The Saints also have one of the best deep safeties in the NFL in Marcus Williams. Malcolm Jenkins (lol RIP) is a great compliment in their secondary as he is allowed to occupy the same role he had in Philly and is playing pretty well. At the trade deadline, the Saints acquired Kwon Alexander from the 49ers. Alexander has had issues staying healthy in the past but he is no longer expected to be an every down contributor – that’s how deep this Saints defense is. Last but not least, Demario Davis is a god. That’s all that needs to be said. Due to the talent at all 3 levels, the Eagles will need to be smart with their coaching and scheme to help a mediocre receiver room get open and make plays for Hurts. Hurts will do enough on his own to extend plays but they need to be able to hit passes through the air and get open quickly, especially first reads. Due to the nature of the Saints coverage scheme, there will be moments where Hurts can attack down the field. He’ll need to hit those opportunities when they present themselves with regularity.
Eagles Offensive Line vs Saints Pass Rush
The Eagles Offensive Line is bad and the Saints Pass Rush is not. Evergreen statement: the Saints pass rush is deep. This is a team that brings pressure in all kinds of ways but is also able to be disruptive with 4 pass rushers. The Eagles offensive line hasn’t been the hot trash that it likely should be given all of the injuries, but it is still really bad. The biggest problem area has been the guards, especially RG, which makes sense without Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo’s injury earlier this season. Cameron Jordan is still an elite EDGE Rusher, Marcus Davenport is now a very good EDGE3, and Trey Hendrickson has developed into a great EDGE2. Sheldon Rankins, Malcom Brown, and David Onyemata make up a formidable Interior Defensive Front. I would expect this defensive front to bring all kinds of pain on Sunday against the run and really make Hurts run for his life through the air. The Eagles pass protection has to find a way to slow this pass rush down through a lot of disguised plays, play action, and moving the pocket for Hurts to be able to get passes off. Hurts can throw a pretty deep pass but he doesn’t have a live arm, which could make him susceptible to INTs. Confusing him in coverage with disguising rushers in the middle of the defense can also lead to picks as he often just doesn’t see the underneath pass defenders. But when they do rush the passer, the Eagles offensive line has to be able to execute more than they have the last two weeks. Lastly, and this is a point that isn’t talked about enough this season, the RBs need to be passable in pass protection. Notice how I said passable; I say that because they’ve been straight trash in that area this year.
Eagles Defensive Back 7 vs Saints Weapons
The most important indicator of success for the Eagles defense each Sunday is the effectiveness of their defensive line as it is the only unit on the defense capable of consistently making stops. I won’t discuss that here, even though that is still true. Sean Payton has long been one of the best Head Coaches and offensive minds in the league since being hired in New Orleans. They are 10-2 without Drew Brees and Michael Thomas for most of the season. The biggest reason for that? Sean Payton. That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have great talent to work with, but he excels at maximizing his players' skill sets. Thomas has returned from injury his place among the elite at the WR position. The Saints signed Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason and unsurprisingly it has worked. Alvin Kamara is still a God. Jared Cook is pretty good. And Taysom Hill looks good in shorts. Sean Payton puts his players in positions to win and they use their talents to make opposing offenses pay. The Eagles defense is good on paper boasting a league-average DVOA but that is misleading given the numerous flaws discussed here ad infinitum. The linebackers are bad and can’t cover. McLeod is decent, but no one else can play in the run or pass game. Darius Slay had been good until the last two weeks (less bad against GB) but is the only capable guy that can cover in the CB room anyway. The backend of this defense is largely slow and can’t cover. They are made to get bent by the Saints offense. Furthermore, they traditionally struggle with mobile QBs. Taysom Hill says hi! For the Eagles to have a chance, the defense needs to play at a level it can’t and the coaching staff needs to play to the limited strengths of its players – which It also struggles to do.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
This is a matchup between two teams headed in completely opposite directions. The Browns are a team on the rise looking to have their first winning record since 2007. Meanwhile the Eagles look like they are headed to their first losing record since Doug Pederson’s first season in 2016. Pederson’s offense which was once thought to be creative has become stale. The screen game which was once a staple of the offense has become nonexistent and Pederson frequently abandons the run early despite having one of the top running backs in the league which kills the play-action game. The coach’s arrogance has prevented him from hiring a true OC and handing over play-calling duties and that arrogance has seen his team make first round exits in the playoffs the last two years. I don’t have an answer for what this team needs to do for a win because with Doug calling the plays I think we can expect the same stale offense we have seen throughout this season. The same can be said with the Eagles defense where Jim Schwartz believes in his scheme over his players and rarely puts his guys in the best position and relies on them winning one on ones to bail him out. Hopefully this season will be a wakeup call to ownership and the coaching staff that the Super Bowl season was 3 years ago and they have been mediocre since that game. As always go Birds.
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Adam Amin will handle the play-by-play duties and Mark Schlereth will provide analysis. Lindsay Czarniak will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Browns Radio
Browns Radio Jim Donovan season to handle play-by-play duties for the broadcast. Former Brown Doug Dieken will provide color and analysis during the game.
National Radio
ESPN Radio will broadcast the game nationally with Roxy Bernstein handling the play by play and Ben Hartsock will provide analysis.
September 16th, 1950 at the Philadelphia Municipal Stadium, Philadelphia, PA. Cleveland Browns 35 - Philadelphia Eagles 10
Points Leader
Cleveland Browns lead the Philadelphia Eagles (1211-930)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 vs. the Cleveland Browns
Kevin Stefanski: 0-0 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs. Kevin Stefanski: First Meeting between coaches
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Browns: 1-0
Baker Mayfield: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Baker Mayfield: Wentz leads 0-0.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Browns: 2-0
Record @ FirstEnergy Stadium: Eagles lead the Browns: 2-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 21 - Browns No. 15
Record
Eagles: 3-5-1
Browns: 6-3
Last Meeting
Thursday, September 11, 2016
Eagles 29 - Browns 10
The Eagles kicked off the 2016 season against the Cleveland Browns. 2nd Overall pick Carson Wentz made his debut. The Eagles started off well. Wentz threw his 1st career TD to Jordan Matthews. Caleb Sturgis missed a field goal in the 1st Quarter but made one early in the 2nd Quarter to extend the lead to 10–0. The Browns would respond early in the 2nd quarter with an Isaiah Crowell 1 yard TD to cut the Eagles lead to 10–7. The Eagles only managed to kick another Sturgis field goal in the 2nd Quarter which resulted in a 13–7 lead at halftime. The Browns then kicked another field goal to change the score to 13–10. Midway through the 3rd Quarter, a bad snap by Browns center Cameron Erving went over the head of Quarterback Robert Griffin III and into the end zone for a safety and it extended the Eagles lead to 15–10. Following that drive, Wentz and the offense went back to work . Wentz threw his 2nd TD to Nelson Agholor to change the score to 22–10. The Eagles mainly burned out the clock in the 4th quarter to weaken the Browns hopes of a comeback. Ryan Mathews sealed the game with a 1-yard TD to make the final score 29–10.
Browns HC Kevin Stefanski is from Philadelphia, PA and attended university of Penn.
Browns GM Andrew Berry was the Eagles Vice President of Football Operations in 2019.
Browns Senior Football Advisor Ryan Grigson worked for the Eagles as a scout in varying roles from 2004-2011.
Browns Assistant Offensive Line Coach Scott Peters was drafted in the 4th round of the 2002 NFL draft.
Browns FS Andrew Sendejo played for the Eagles in 2019 before he was released.
Eagles LB Coach Ken Fajole held the same position for the Browns from 2013-2015.
Eagles DE Genard Avery played two seasons for the Browns from 2018-2019.
Eagles DC Jim Schwartz worked as a scout for the Browns from 1993-1995.
Browns K Cody Parkey played 2 seasons for the Eagles from 2014-2015.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Browns
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
RB Nick Chubb(starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
WR Jarvis Landy
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
G Joel Bitonio (1st Alt)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Adrian Hill
Philadelphia has won 5 consecutive games in the series against Cleveland, as well as 7 of the last 9 overall. The Eagles last faced the Browns on Sep. 11, 2016, when Philadelphia won 29-10 in Doug Pederson’s debut as the Eagles’ head coach.
Philadelphia owns a 3-0 record at FirstEnergy Stadium and has won 4 straight road games vs. Cleveland. The last time the Eagles traveled to Cleveland was on Sep. 9, 2012 (W, 17-16).
Miles Sanders ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (6.0), trailing only Nick Chubb (6.1) (min. 75 attempts). Sanders is also 2nd among NFL RBs in scrimmage yards per touch (6.2), behind Alvin Kamara (6.6) (min. 100 touches).
Brandon Graham leads the Eagles defense with 7.0 sacks, which is tied for the 8th-most in the NFL. Only five NFL players rank in the Top 10 in both sacks and TFLs this season: Graham, Leonard Floyd, Trey Hendrickson, Za’Darius Smith and T.J. Watt.
Jason Kelce has started 98 consecutive regular-season games, which is the longest active streak among NFL centers.
Draft Picks
Eagles
Browns
WR Jalen Raegor
OT Jedrick Wills
QB Jalen Hurts
S Grant Delpit
LB Davion Taylor
DT Jordan Elliott
S K’Von Wallace
LB Jacobs Phillips
OT Jack Driscoll
TE Harrison Bryant
WR John Hightower
C Nick Harris
LB Shaun Bradley
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Browns
S Will Parks
DT Andrew Billings
DT Javon Hargrave
DE Adrian Clayborn
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
OT Jack Conklin
CB Darius Slay
BJ Goodson
OT TE Austin Hooper
CB Kevin Johnson
QBCase Keenum
S Kark Joseph
S Andrew Sendejo
WR Jojo Natson
CB Donovan Olumba
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Browns
S Malcom Jenkins
LB Joe Schobert
CB Ronald Darby
CB TJ Carrie
RB Jordan Howard
TE Demetrius Harris
WR Nelson Agholor
LB Christian Kirksey
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
G Eric Kush
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
S Eric Murray
RB Darren Sproles
S Damarius Randall
DT Timmy Jernigan
TE Rick Seals-Jones
LB Nigel Bradham
LB Adarius Taylor
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 3 passing TDs to move up to 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (991) needs 9 yards for 1000 career rushing yards.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (51.5) needs 4 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Browns QB Baker Mayfield (64) needs 3 passing TDs to move up to 6ths on the Browns all-time passing TD list moving ahead of QB Milt Plum
Browns RB Nick Chubb needs 168 yards to move up to 9th on the Browns all-time rushing list passing Isaiah Crowell
Stats to Know
Eagles to Face One of the Greatest Former Eagles of All Time
I’m not sure I know of any Eagles fan that misses former Eagles Safety Andrew Sendejo, do you? Hey Browns fans, are you enjoying him yet? Sendejo is known for not just his bad tackling, but also taking out his own teammates (“Sorry, Avonte!”). It just so happens that Sendejo’s propensity for missed tackles is at an all-time low this season. Of 93 Safeties with appreciable snaps, Sendejo is tied for 4th-worst tackling efficiency (weighted per snap). He is tied for 2nd-worst in number of missed tackles against the run (7), which puts him on a season’s pace notably worse than any other season in the raw stat. His tackling efficiency this season is 5.2, so far, compared to 6.0 last year and 7.2 the year before. Looking at coverage ability, he’s allowing a passer rating of 135 this season, compared to 95 last year, and 84 the year prior. I’ll take Will Parks for now. You enjoy, Browns fans.
Matchups to Watch
Eagles Run Defense vs Browns Rushing Offense
The Browns are an analytically driven team and because of that they know that a good, efficient, and explosive passing attack is key to success in the NFL. That has been a bit of a struggle at times this year for a number of reasons. One area of their team where they haven't struggled is in the running game. First year HC Kevin Stefanksi has brought a lot of the good he implemented with the Vikings to the Browns as they have an incredibly effective and diverse running game; they do just about everything and do it well. Why? Their offensive line has quickly become one of the best in the NFL. A big reason for this success is new OL coach Bill Callahan, one of the best OL coaches in the game. One thing that works in Callahan's favor is the improved talent on the roster. Joel Bitonio has long been on of the best guards in the NFL; Callahan has then made Wyatt Teller a force on the inside. Rookie Jedrick Willis has been a stud at Left Tackle and Center JC Tretter is very solid and a bit underrated. The Browns may be without RT Jack Conklin on Sunday due to COVID; his replacement will be an inevitable downgrade, unfortunately. Stefanski has gotten by with worse at the position, just look at the Vikings OL. Their scheme does a lot to hide the flaws in talent which is what any good coach should be doing. On top of that, the Browns will have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at running back. This is the best running back room in the NFL. The Eagles have struggled against the run of late due to their atrocious LBs and Safeties. Their defensive line is still good, but watch the linebackers. They aren't physical and they have absolutely no clue how to consistently execute their run fits. Watch this opening TD run from Daniel Jones. What on God's green earth is this? TJ Edwards absolutely blew his run responsibility. Watch Jalen Mills shy away from contact. This is why the Eagles run defense is bad. In possibly unfavorable conditions to pass, the Browns may lean on their advantage upfront and the Eagles may struggle to stop it. There isn't much reason to think they won't either as they've struggled against lesser competition than what they are about to face.
Eagles Passing Attack vs Browns Pass Defense
The Browns have a pretty average defense by DVOA but do have a good cornerback in Denzel Ward. Defensively, the Browns are pretty similar to Eagles in terms of scheme. Ward is very sticky in man coverage and isn't afraid to get physical with receivers. Ronnie Harrison has emerged this year as a quality safety after flaming out with the Jaguars the previous couple of season. Terrance Mitchell is also another quality corner for the Browns. Outside of that, there isn't much that is spectacular for the Browns after their pass rush. The Eagles have healthy weapons in Goedert, Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Alshon, Sanders, and Scott to take advantage of holes in the middle of their defense. The Browns also start Andrew Sendejo at Safety, who all Eagles fans should be familiar with as he sucks. News broke on Friday that Myles Garrett is on the COVID list and won't play on Sunday. Hopefully Garrett will be fine; in terms of football, this is an incredible gift for the Eagles. Garrett is on his way to earning his first DPOY award and would be an absolutely nightmare for the Eagles to defend even as the OL gets healthy. The Browns pass rush could still have it's moments against the Eagles OL but given the Garrett loss, the Eagles need to be able to take advantage of the holes in the Browns pass defense. Can the Eagles suddenly shit tier starter actually play well? Can Doug remember how to be a good offensive mind?
Eagles Pass Rush vs Browns Pass Blocking
The Eagles defense lives and dies by their pass rush. They will have their full compliment of pass rushers again for this contest against a very good Browns offensive line. The major weakness for the Browns OL on Sunday will be at RT as Jack Conklin may not play. If he doesn't, the Browns would be wise to send all kinds of help that way as Brandon Graham has been having an All Pro caliber season. It is key the Eagles get pressure on Baker Mayfield when they do pass as he is one of the leagues worst QBs under pressure. Mayfield is a lot like Wentz this year: prone to mistakes under pressure with poor pocket management that puts him in trouble. The Browns have more than enough weapons in the passing game to be able to take advantage of the Eagles defense provided Mayfield has time to throw. Darius Slay will give Jarvis Landry issues but no one else should really put up much of a fight against the Browns receivers. The Eagles LBs and Safeties are also incapable of covering anything; the Browns TEs and RBs should have a field day. As always with the Eagles, as the DL goes so goes the defense as a whole.
Super Bowl 2021: Full NFL Playoff Odds and Bold Predictions . 0 of 4. Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press. The first round of the 2020-21 NFL postseason is complete. That may seem like a silly Super Bowl 2021 betting tips, predictions and free bets – With NFL expert Mike Carlson . Tom Bloomfield; 7 Feb 2021, 9:25; Updated: 7 Feb 2021, 9:27; The 2020 NFL season draws to a close tonight The 2021 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Buccaneers is right around the corner. Check out the game's odds, line, spread, NFL picks and more. NFL Odds and Predictions: Picking Super Bowl LV against the spread Several of the BTSC staff pick both of this weekend’s NFL games both against the spread and over/under point totals NFL odds, lines, spread: 2021 Super Bowl picks, predictions from proven model The SportsLine Projection Model, which has returned almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, picks every NFL game . By SportsLine Staff @ SportsLine Published: Feb 07, 2021 7:49PM UTC. 2 min read. The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up almost $7,900 for $100 NFL Super Bowl LV Odds Breakdown. The Super Bowl is here and the Chiefs have opened up as 3 point favorites. Tom Brady is preparing for his 10th Super Bowl which is unbelievable in and of itself. Generation vs. Generation is in effect, we could be watching a passing of the torch. From Brady… to Mahomes. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook Super Bowl 2021 Odds Update. Spread: KC -3 | Total: over-under 56 points | Moneyline: KC -160, TB +140. Props: Check out the complete list of every Super Bowl LV prop bet on the board by clicking All of the 2021 Super Bowl odds are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best 2021 NFL picks now. The model,... 2021 Super Bowl odds, Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions: Expert who's 24-14 reveals surprising picks R.J. White has his finger on the pulse of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl 55 Betting Pick. The current Point Spread has Kansas City -3.5; Tampa Bay +3.5. The current Total Points is set at 56.5. Both these teams have great offenses, so this could be a Super Bowl where it pays to back the Overs at odds of -110 with Bovada on the Total Points.. The offensive strength of the Chiefs with Mahomes directing the play is such that, even allowing for the Brady
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