For myself, life over the past few years has seemingly gone from bad to worse - and before I go into the details -this isn’t a “pity-post” or a sympathy searching exercise, this is simply a warning, and hopefully a lesson to others who are entering the crypto scene.
My crypto journey began back in earnest at the start of that famed 2017 “bull run” – I had a little bit in savings and had done my due diligence – this really was the future, and it could potentially set me and my family up for life.
I bought in with every bit of money I had to spare. All told, it was about £6,500, and the price of Bitcoin sat at just under £9,000.
This was exciting. The price continued to increase and I religiously opened and closed the Coinbase website to see the price soar by the hundreds and into the thousands. Work took a backseat and I became consumed with the markets, red and green candles being the first and last things I saw in the day.
I wanted more. I became envious of those that had bought into cryptos years before. So I looked at alternate avenues to increase my Bitcoin holdings… this was going to be the making of me! Sadly it turned out to be quite the opposite.
Scams, Scams everywhere…
The first venture I looked into was a third party bitcoin mining platform which promised exponential growth. It sounded too good to be true (spoiler: it was). I used a credit card to buy more Bitcoin. First mistake. I maxed the card and sent around £6,000 in Bitcoin to a mining company known as Crypterra. The reviews were good, the discord was active, people were seeing payouts – it was all looking legitimate. But of course it wasn’t. Payouts dried up. The devs went silent and the site disappeared and re-appeared sporadically before going offline indefinitely. It was over and I had lost most of the £6,000 from my credit card.
Robots are the future?
The price of Bitcoin was still holding strong and I’d made small gains with my original investment which was still untouched. Perhaps I could increase by Bitcoin gains elsewhere and pay off the credit card I had maxed out.
Again, I looked into ways to bolster my Bitcoin reservesI looked into trading platforms, cryptocurrency bots in particular. How hard could it be? As long as the price of Bitcoin went up, it should balance out any losses as I learned the ropes. There were a few that caught my eye. And following what I thought was sage “youtuber” advice – I dove into the world of trading with bots – linking up a Binance account and setting up my automated systems to work their magic and trade whilst I was asleep/working/sitting on the toilet, you name it.
As you can imagine, these bots weren’t the holy grail they were promoted to be, and I was losing Bitcoin left, right and centre. I became more and more “experimental” with the strategies… doubling my stakes, tripling my stakes to recoup what I had lost. I didn’t see it as real money (despite paying with hard earned money to fund these accounts) – it was magic internet money, just ones and zeroes – so the reality of it didn’t hit home how much I was actually losing. Shock horror, I lost it all.
Taking it to the bookies…
I had effectively been gambling my money away, and in my increasingly agitated state I sought out other communities to try and regain my money. Sports-betting communities, gambling communities, Twitter “tipsters” and Facebook groups who had all the inside knowledge.
I was down over £12,000 from my savings and the £6,500 from the credit card combined. I decided to open another two credit cards. One to fund my betting account and the other for backup. I quickly went through the first card’s funds, but I was ‘still learning’, this was ‘Ok’ – next time I would get it right. The second card (third in total) was quickly exhausted, and I was now close to £20,000 in the hole from when I started, all within just a few months.
The hole grew ever darker
As I write this now I am actually afraid and embarrassed to share the total losses I have made over the past few years (it’s actually much worse than I could have ever imagined). I have no-one to blame but myself; the greed, stupidity and at times, pure arrogance have lead me down this path. A path which at the moment seems irreversible for me.
To see the price of Bitcoin now makes me feel physically sick – if only I had been patient. If only I hadn’t chased my losses, if only I hadn’t played with money that wasn’t mine - I wouldn’t be in this predicament. As the debt mounts ever higher and interest rates on credit cards are crippling me, it will be an incredibly long time before I have any financial stability again. It has made me mentally unwell and I’m still figuring out the next steps which I know include professional support and removing my head from the pile of sand in which I have buried it.
I sincerely hope that those who read this account of my situation don’t fall into the same trap. The world is once again hyped for crypto, and with it come the pitfalls and scams and false promises of financial freedom and becoming rich. Don’t try and cheat the system, don’t chase your losses and don’t use money that isn’t yours in the first place.
TLDR:
To put it succinctly, the above is a very short overview of the financial hole I have found myself due to greed, arrogance and stupidity over the past few years. Hopefully a warning to others. Don’t chase losses, don’t look for the next get rich scheme and don’t invest money that isn’t yours to start with. Basically, don’t ruin your life like me. If only I had just held.
EDIT:
A quick edit to say thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read the above and replied in the comments. I've had some very honest and insightful responses and some incredibly useful suggestions about how I can bring myself back from this dilemma. I'll be seeking professional help both for the gambling and the debt management and hopefully get myself on the right track for the sake of my own sanity and that of my family's.

Hi everyone. It seemed like Reddit was the right place to share the betting startup in which I am currently working and that you may find interesting - Betmarkets.
Like everyone in this forum, I am passionate about sports betting. It has been a part of me for all my adult life and rather than going for the multi-bets like the general crowd (and even though I started through that route, like I guess many of you do/did), it is the consistent and structured approach through value betting supported by statistics that I love the most.
That being said, one of my main strategies was to follow professional tipsters on the internet, through email services or more recently via Pyckio. Nevertheless, this was quite frustrating because I had to be prepared to place bets whenever the event took place (from 4AM Australian football to 2AM NBA, 22 hours later). And even if I was awake, I had to be very fast to place the bet so that the odds did not drop and became not valuable enough. Even though I yielded good results, the process was difficult to conciliate with my personal and professional life and not really scalable.
It was during this year that I got to know Betmarkets, and Afonso (co-founder). He built the platform that tackled this exact issue: you can copy professional bettors in a fully automated way - every time they place a bet, that same bet is placed in your account too. You just have to make a deposit and then allocate your balance to the bettors you wish to copy.
It all looked good but I had to make sure: what would happen with the odds, after the bettors placed a bet? I would certainly be placing bets that were not EV+, I thought - and I couldn't be more wrong! This is the answer that I got: “The professional bettors input a minimum odds when placing the bet, so you will never take a bet that isn't EV+ on the bettor's opinion. The software does not place bets at odds lower than the minimum odds, even if the bet is only partially placed. If the bet can only be partially placed, the amount is distributed between all the copiers according to their allocated bankrolls".
Another favourable point is that they vet bettors before letting them join the platform - and only those with a record above 1,000 bets or several years of betting are considered. They check their ROI, ROC, edge over CLV, estimate max drawdowns, p-value, etc, and only admit those that they consider adequate to pursue the company's main goal: users' profitability, with a long-run view.
As a plus, there are not any upfront costs - users only share 20% of their profits with bettors at the end of each calendar quarter.
As a user, my experience had been incredible - not only they got me a solution to copy professional bettors, but also they actively listened to my feedback. I became a user so interested and committed to the development of the platform that one day I asked Afonso if there was any room in the team for me, and I ended up joining this brilliant company that I want to share with you today!
Thank you for reading and let me know if you have any comments or questions. Here is the registration link (with my referral, if you don't mind it): https://app.betmarkets.io/register?promo_code=REFERRED&referral=e393c23e0dce5f55d699bec4e61a1018
Best,
Francisco

I wrote this up four years ago, but made some modifications in view of additional evidence that came to light (see timelines beginning at https://www.reddit.com/serialpodcastorigins/comments/8cslu3/timeline_vii/), which only reinforces the original conclusions. I've had to edit this a few times as I became aware of additional facts and although I believe the conclusions are still valid regarding CG's legal strategy and Adnan's guilt, the invalidity of Asia's alibi, criminal stupidity of Adnan, his friends and family and the debt these ingrates owe CG as they piss on her grave are fleshed out more clearly here.
The purpose of this post is to use the facts to explain Christina Gutierrez's strategy--particularly why she did not rely on the letters or witness testimony of Asia McClain. Her instincts were spot on and the claim that Adnan Syed received ineffective assistance of counsel is a travesty. Apologies for the length, but if you followed this case, I promise that you will find this worthwhile.
Was Adnan Syed involved in the murder of Hae Min Lee (HML)? YES, but not based solely on the evidence presented by the prosecution. The facts and analysis below show how the most compelling evidence proving Adnan Syed's guilt was not provided by the State. It was provided by his strongest advocate, Rabia Chaudry, who doggedly pursued the Asia alibi.
The March 1, 1999 letter from Asia McClain--incorrectly regarded by many as exculpatory--actually implicates Adnan and proves that he played a role in HML's murder.
The greatest injustice (aside from Hae’s murder) exposed through the Serial Podcast was not what happened to Adnan Syed, but how Christina Gutierrez was portrayed. Based solely on her grossly misinterpreted handling of the Asia McClain letters, every move that Gutierrez made makes perfect sense and her strategy was sound. To best understand the case, we should start with a timeline. The details of whether there was a meeting at Best Buy, who made the Nisha call, etc. are not included because they are not necessary to prove Adnan’s guilt or the effectiveness of Gutierrez as his counsel.
1998
Early December: Adnan and Hae break up.
Mid-December: Adnan and Don look at Hae's car at her job at Lenscrafters. Adnan has no problem with Don and gets along fine, but Don is only Hae's coworker at this time (relevance: motive).
1999
January 1: Don and Hae start dating.
January 11: Adnan purchases his cell phone (first time he owned one) and starts using it the next day.
January 12: Hae spends evening on phone with Don.
January 12: Adnan calls Hae three times between 11:27 PM and 12:35 AM.
January 13: Hae is killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM (the one consistent thread in Jay's multiple statements and testimony, also Adnan's cell was pinging Leakin Park burial site between 7 PM and 8 PM).
January 13: Adnan called by police at 6:24 PM asking if he knows Hae's whereabouts and speaks with them until about 6:30 PM at Kristi’s house.
January 13: Between 7:09 PM and 8:05 PM all four calls to/from Adnan's cell ping Leakin Park towers near Hae's burial site.
Jan 13 to Feb 9: Police question Adnan and Don multiple times pursuant to investigation of Hae's disappearance. Police do not assume anything about if/when Hae could have been killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 9: Hae's body found by Mr. S. Medical examiner determines that Hae was strangled, but cannot determine when she was killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 12: Anonymous call to cops telling them to look at Hae's ex. Anonymous tipster calls again telling cops to talk to Yasser Ali who might know more.
February 15: Police speak with Yasser who says he knows nothing (relevance: Goes without saying that Yasser tells his friend Adnan that the cops are investigating him (Adnan's cell records show that he spoke with Yasser the next day) and Adnan likely starts establishing his Asia alibi).
February 16: Grand jury convened to determine whether to indict Adnan for murdering HML (Adnan didn't know he was under Grand Jury investigation...more on that here).
February 16-25: Police subpoena Adnan's cell records, identify the numbers called and see that the most frequently called number was Jen (Jay's friend)
February 26: Police try to contact Jen and she says it's not a good time.
February 26: Jen goes to Jay and tells him that the police tried to question her about Hae. According to Jen's story, Jay tells her what to say to police about the murder and tells her send the police to him (relevance: Jay knows its a question of time before police connect him with the calls and knows that he needs to get ahead of the story).
February 26: Jen talks to the police (goes alone), but says that she knows nothing (relevance: Contrary to Jen's story, Jay likely told Jenn to stall while he figures out what she should tell the cops and gives her full account the next day after Jay puts together his version of events).
February 26: Police speak with Adnan (relevance: Adnan by now certainly knows he needs an alibi, but police do not have a time line yet).
February 27: Jen speaks with police again (with her mom and attorney present). This time she tells the police that Jay told her that Adnan strangled Hae. It had not yet been publicly disclosed that HML was strangled, so cops know there is truth behind this story. No timeline established although she says that Jay was at her house between 3:45 PM and 4:15 PM on Jan 13.
February 27: Police speak with Adnan (more aggressively in view of Jen's statement)
February 27: Jay sweating bullets all day at his job at the adult video store waiting for police to contact him and wondering if Adnan got his version of the story to the police first. Police have Jay come in for questioning for the first time (relevance: Jay is not fearful of Adnan physically doing something to him. He is scared that Adnan will throw him under the bus. Jay is definitely not scared--as Rabia Chaudry and the Innocence Project allege--that some random rapist/murderer who was released from prison less than two weeks earlier to whom Jay has no connection is making Jay help cover his tracks).
February 28: Later the same night he was brought in by the cops, Jay gives up Adnan and provides the general timeline that establishes that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 and 8 PM (consistent with his subsequent statements to the police and testimony). This is the first time the police have a timeline for Hae's murder and burial. This timeline is not yet publicly available, so as far as the public knows, Hae was killed and buried some time between January 13 and February 9. The police question Jay several more times over the next month and a half trying to nail down his story. Relevance: they do not trust Jay's initial timeline and would not question Adnan against it unless it was rock solid, which at this point it was not.
February 28: Arrest warrant is issued against Adnan for murder that took place "ON OR ABOUT 1/13/1999 - 1/31/1999." The police investigation was in its early stages and while the cops knew Adnan and Jay were involved, they were not yet willing to take Jay's word regarding timeline especially given the fact that he had a criminal record.
February 28: Adnan arrested for Hae's murder (this is a Sunday). Police question Adnan, but based on Adnan's attorney's notes taken the next day, there is no indication that the police questioned Adnan about any timeline or asked him to account for his time. They mainly tried to push Adnan to flip on Jay and provide a version where Adnan would throw Jay under the bus, but Adnan lawyered up. Jay, on the other hand, declined an attorney so the cops decided to work with the suspect with whom they were still allowed to speak and spent the next several weeks meeting with Jay and establishing a timeline of events.
March 1: A day after Adnan is arrested, the first Asia letter sent, She states that she can account for some of Adnan's "unwitnessed, unaccountable time" between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. The ink is not yet dry on Jay's non-public statement. The letter was written before the police start to even check whether Adnan has an alibi.
March 2: Second Asia letter reiterating that she can account for Adnan's time, but does not provide a time range like the first letter. Typed this time and includes Adnan's prisoner number on top with the jail address. Asks why he has not yet told police about this. Curiously, despite thousands of people combing through the evidence following the popularity of the Serial podcast, Asia's March 2 letter is the earliest document of which I am aware that identifies Adnan by his prisoner number.
March 6: According to Adnan's lawyer's notes, Adnan inquired about the jail's address and how his mail is scrutinized and requested a self-addressed, stamped envelope and paper. Relevance: Asia supposedly knew Adnan's jail address four days before he did. See also April 20 police interview notes of Ja'uan below.
Early March - March 18 - Adnan's lawyers actively solicit over 600 letters of support from his high school classmates and Muslim community. No indication that Asia wrote one. Given the trouble Asia went through to figure out Adnan's prisoner number (probably before Adnan even knew it himself) and plead with him to direct the police to her in two unsolicited letters, you would think she would take advantage when Adnan's attorneys solicited letters of support as many of her classmates did when she had something so much more substantive to say.
March 31: Adnan's bail hearing where he is represented by two attorneys (Gutierrez not yet involved). Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan showed the Asia letters to these two attorneys.
After March 31: Christina Gutierrez hired to defend Adnan.
April 14: Grand Jury formally indicts Adnan for murder. Adnan really feeling the heat now.
April 16: First face-to-face meeting between Gutierrez and Adnan.
April 20: Police interview Adnan's friend Ja'uan. Ja'uan tells cops that he recently received a letter from Adnan and that he also wrote letters to his friend Justin and Justin's ex, Asia. Ja'uan said that Adnan gave Asia a letter to "type up with his address on it." Asia's "March 2" letter was typed up and and had his address (and prisoner number) across the top. Other than the letters Asia sent to Adnan, this is the first reference to Asia by either prosecution or defense in the record.
July 7: Gutierrez files a demand letter with the court complaining that the prosecution had not provided info on when HML was killed and that “Defendant can’t possibly mount a defense or determine if an alibi disclosure is needed without being on notice of the alleged time of death.” (relevance: THIS IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHY GUTIERREZ DID NOT USE ASIA--More than four months after the Asia letters, Adnan was still not told of the State's timeline, but Asia somehow used her fortune teller skills to identify the precise time for which Adnan needed an alibi).
July 8: State responds to demand letter stating HML was killed shortly after she left school for the day on Jan 13, 1999.
July 10: Gutierrez visits Adnan. She had been visiting him regularly (5/28, 6/5, 6/8, 6/26), but something happened at this meeting and she sent her underlings after this meeting and visited Adnan one more time in September before the trial and once after the verdict. Given what Adnan discussed three days later with CG's legal team, this is the likely date that Adnan first told CG about Asia (when CG made her undated notes about Asia). CG's notes about Asia are consistent with the State's newly revealed time of HML's death, which is likely what they discussed.
July 13: Gutierrez sends her associate and paralegal to meet with Adnan. The paralegal took notes similar to CG's about Asia noting Adnan's story about Asia and her boyfriend seeing him at the library after school at 3 PM on Jan. 13. This is the first dated reference to Asia in the defense record, but CG's undated notes about Asia likely preceded them.
September 7: Jay enters plea deal that is contingent upon Jay telling truth. If his testimony is proven to be false, State could bring any charge against Jay including murder.
2000
February 18: Gutierrez learns for the first time almost six weeks into the second trial and after the State rests that the prosecutor arranged for Jay's free private defense attorney.
February 25: Adnan found guilty
June 6: Adnan sentenced to life plus 30
July 6: Jay sentenced to probation (under deal was facing max 5 years)
​
The way alibis typically work: a suspect is questioned by the police based on when they believe the crime was committed. The suspect is asked to account for his time and if anyone could confirm the suspect's story that he was somewhere else at the time the crime was committed. If the suspect has an alibi, the police investigate whether the alibi checks out. Adnan was arrested on Feb 28. Before the cops or prosecution even questioned Adnan about his whereabouts on January 13, Asia went ahead and provided him with an alibi within 24 hours of his arrest.
The most important feature of the above timeline is that before Jay's statements, neither the police nor the public were operating under the assumption that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. Some thought she was with Don. Some thought she went to California to see her father. Gutierrez herself argued at trial that Hae could have been killed Jan 13 or Jan 14 or Jan 15, etc. At the time Adnan was arrested, all that was known was that HML was last seen on January 13th and that she was killed and buried some time between January 13th and February 9th. HML could have been stuffed in the trunk of her car alive by Jay on January 13 and killed the next day or the day after that. The only evidence establishing the January 13 timeline of Hae's murder and burial is Jay's testimony, which was unknown to the public as of March 1, 1999.
Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan told the police about Asia after he was arrested. Keep in mind that Adnan had not yet hired Gutierrez until several weeks after receiving the first Asia letter. Why would he keep this alibi from the police? It obviously had nothing to do with the fact that he could not remember that he saw her on Jan 13 because she clearly states in her letter that she could vouch for him. Adnan also did not raise the Asia letters to his attorneys that handled the bail hearing. He kept his mouth shut about the Asia letters because he realized that he screwed up. Asia's first letter came ONE DAY after Jay told the police the first and only account of when Hae was killed and buried (between 2:15 PM to 8 PM on Jan 13). Asia did not write her letter in response to questions for the police who by her own account had never spoken with her. Yet, she provides a detail in her letter offering to help Adnan account for his time, specifically between 2:15 to 8:00 PM (see page 2 of her March 1 letter). If Asia simply offered to help Adnan account for some his time on January 13, it would have been suspicious because it would imply knowledge of Jen and Jay's private statements to the police given on Feb 27 and 28, respectively. Asia specifically identifying the relevant time frame precludes the possibility that she was just innocently trying to help Adnan and that he had nothing to do with prearranging the alibi letters. Only after the prosecution committed to the 21 minute time frame when they argued that Hae was killed did Asia with Rabia's help narrow her 5.75 hour range to a 20 minute stretch in her affidavit that overlaps with the State's story. Keep in mind also that the affidavit was prepared one year after Asia wrote her two letters. By including that detail in her first letter, Asia unwittingly revealed that Adnan planned his alibi before being arrested and knew when Hae was killed and buried independent of Jay's statements. Thus, Asia's letter does the exact opposite of providing Adnan with an alibi. It proves that Adnan had knowledge of Hae's murder and burial which he failed to report at any time before his arrest. Adnan probably figured out that he screwed up by having Asia provide the alibi before he was ever questioned against Jay's timeline. When the cops arrested Adnan, they wanted to leave room for Adnan to flip on Jay. Jay provided details about how HML was strangled that were not known to the public so they knew that he was somehow involved. They were not ready to believe Jay's half-baked story after his first interview and would definitely not question Adnan against an unreliable timeline before it was rock solid. Adnan did not count on that. He was hoping and expecting to be asked like he probably learned from movies: "Where were you after school on Jan 13, 1999?" Instead, he was hit with, "We know you and Jay were involved in HML's murder, tell us what Jay did and we will go easy on you..." to which the correct answer IS NOT "I couldn't have done it because I was in the library on January 13, 1999 between 2 and 3 PM!!!" To which the cops would reply, "why would we give a flying f*ck where you were at that time? We didn't ask you that. We're just beginning our investigation. Should we care about where you were at that time? Because it certainly appears that you do!" There was no way for Adnan to show the cops Asia's March 1 letter in the days following his arrest. He thought he was playing it safe by having Asia cover him for the entire time that Hae was killed and buried. The arresting officers' interview notes of Adnan do not ever mention it. Adnan's description to his lawyer the next day of what the cops asked him makes no mention of it. The arrest warrant lists HML's murder as happening between Jan 13 and Jan 31. In fact, Gutierrez complained to the judge FOUR MONTHS AFTER Asia wrote her letter that the prosecution had not yet provided a time of death against which her client could provide an alibi! This compounds how ridiculous Asia's letter is. Coincidentally, however, only after the State responds to CG's demand letter and they disclose that HML was killed shortly after school on Jan 13 does Adnan finally tell his lawyers about Asia.
Gutierrez's Strategy
Asia Letter
Later, when Gutierrez took over Adnan's defense, her notes indicate that Adnan told her about the Asia alibi. As mentioned in the timeline, her undated notes were likely taken on July 10, 1999 when CG met with Adnan immediately after the State finally disclosed when HML was killed. He figured Asia's letters were finally relevant and he would see if she could find a way to use them. She likely determined immediately that Asia's first letter is poison to the defense and proves only that Adnan had to be involved. Her first line of questions to Adnan: How did Asia know the relevant time frame (2:15 PM to 8:00 PM) the day after Jay made his non-public statement to the cops? Why does she provide such a wide range of 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM when she can only account for "some of your time?" How could she know within 24 hours of your arrest that you had any “unwitnessed, unaccountable lost time” let alone the relevant 5.75 hour stretch on January 13, 1999 when the public did not yet know when HML was killed and buried? Her second line of questions: Did you talk to Asia before you were arrested? Did you tell her what to say in her letter? How will she explain how she knew what time Jay would say you murdered and buried Hae? Do you know how much trouble she will be in if she perjures herself to help you establish an alibi? How confident are you that she will stick to her story if the prosecutors lean on her by hammering away that the penalty for perjury in Maryland is up to 10 years in prison? Her third line which likely remained in her mind: If you weren't involved in Hae's murder, how could you have known that you needed an alibi between 2:15 PM and 8 PM BEFORE Jay gave his first statement to the cops and BEFORE the cops even asked you anything about that time? Then she really got pissed off: WHY IN THE NAME OF GRANDMA'S MOLASSES DID YOU WAIT UNTIL JULY TO SHOW ME LETTERS DATED MORE THAN FOUR MONTHS AGO??? AND HOW IN THE NAME OF NOSTRA-FUCKING-DAMUS DID ASIA KNOW YOUR PRISONER NUMBER ON MARCH 2???? AND IF YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE UP AN ALIBI, WHY IN THE NAME OF H.G.-FUCKING-WELLS WOULD YOU DATE IT FOUR MONTHS BEFORE YOU NEEDED IT??? CG immediately recognized that Adnan was trying to stage manage her and his case and it pissed her off so much that she could not stand the sight of him, which is likely why she sent her associate and paralegal to meet with him a few days later. Adnan fed them the same load of crap and they likely confirmed to CG that they didn't buy it either. In view of Adnan's inept attempt to fabricate an alibi, CG knew that she had to keep Asia out of the case for Adnan to have a shot. She likely shamed him by saying something like, "If you know what's good for you, you will never bring this up to me again and I have to pretend that you never showed me these letters." If she gave the prosecution wind of Asia's anti-alibi by interviewing her, she knew they could use Asia as a witness to crucify Adnan. She kept Asia out to protect him. So Gutierrez knew that her client was involved in the murder for which he was accused. Hardly unusual for a criminal defense attorney, but unfortunately, the case doesn't end when you realize your client is not innocent. She still had to defend him and make the prosecution prove their case.
Not atacking the State's Timeline
The prosecutors made a deal with Jay. He agreed to plead to accessory after the fact in exchange for being the State's witness against Adnan. This is also key to Gutierrez's strategy: Jay's deal was contingent upon telling the truth. It specifically states that if it becomes evident that Jay is lying, his deal is voided and the state can bring any charges against him including murder. The terms of the deal were laid out during the State's direct examination of Jay.
Jay's deal poses a strategic problem for Gutierrez. Because of the Asia letter, she knows that Adnan was involved in Hae's murder. If she destroys Jay's testimony and proves that he lied by exposing the holes in his story, Jay's deal gets voided and he becomes fair game for the prosecution. That's fine if Jay acted alone, but she knew that wasn't the case. Jay is still weak on motive, but he would likely be forced to admit that he played a more active role in Hae's murder. While the prosecution's initial story is full of holes, if Jay comes clean, the holes would likely disappear and make the State's case against Adnan much stronger. Of course, Jay would be exposed as a liar, but his second story would fit the cell tower records and the testimony of other witnesses much better. This would put Gutierrez in a position of having to defend Adnan against what she knows to be true, the prosecution’s case would no longer hinge on Jay’s testimony alone resulting in even more of an uphill battle for the defense. I'm not saying that she made the right call, but her strategy of not attacking the time line is not obviously wrong.
What does that leave Gutierrez in terms of tactics? Attacking Jay's credibility and bolstering Adnan's character through favorable witness testimony. She reminds the jury at every opportunity that Jay works in a porn video store. She reminds them that he admitted lying to the cops in his earlier statements about what he knew. But she does not expose him as a liar for any statements he made during the trial lest it destroy his deal and expose Adnan to yet another version of the story--the REAL story--against which she would likely have a more difficult time defending her client. Add to that having to defend Adnan from the State's thinly veiled assertions that he comes from an "honor killing" culture and you can see how she really had her work cut out for her.
Then the State gives Gutierrez a HUGE gift by not disclosing the terms of how the district attorney arranged for Jay's pro bono attorney. Gutierrez pounced on this fact and did what she could by focusing on the impropriety of the State failing to disclose that it provided a private attorney for Jay. If the trial court judge agreed and ordered the jury to disregard Jay's testimony, the state's case would crumble. Anyway, the trial judge denied Gutierrez's attempt to have Jay's testimony tossed, but she preserved her objections for appeal the focus of which would be that the court erred in allowing Jay's testimony. Gutierrez’s plan was to have the testimony of the prosecution's key witness thrown out without having to prove that he lied. This means that Adnan goes free and Jay keeps his deal and is immune from the prosecution going after him to get the real story because his testimony getting dumped was the prosecution's fault not Jay's. Kind of brilliant, if you ask me.
Gutierrez's Treatment of Adnan's Parents and Rabia
As to Gutierrez's disposition towards Adnan's parents that Rabia blogs about, if I was Gutierrez and knew that my client tried to get me to argue an obviously fraudulent alibi and had to deal with her murdering sociopath client's clueless parents and their wet-behind-the-ears law student friend each convinced of his innocence, I would probably not have any patience for them either. She CAN'T tell them her strategy because it is largely based on the fact that Adnan was involved in the murder ("I CAN'T poke holes in the timeline because then Jay will be forced to tell the truth and your son won't have a snowball's chance in hell."). More importantly, the strategy is protected by attorney client privilege and her disbarment would have come a few years earlier if she laid it out for them. Rabia bashes Gutierrez for focusing exclusively on the appeal and accuses her of squeezing as much money as she could out of the case. What Rabia doesn't realize is that if they stuck with Gutierrez or at least kept her on to assist with the appeal if her health became a factor, Adnan would have had a better shot at getting off by focusing exclusively on having Jay's testimony thrown out. After finding out about Asia, did Rabia ask Gutierrez why she didn't use her? Was it possible that this seasoned attorney might have a strategy that she could not disclose to this law student family friend operating on 100% emotion and 0% experience? DID SHE FIND IT WEIRD THAT ADNAN WAS IN POSSESSION OF THE ASIA LETTERS AND THAT SHE GOT THEM DIRECTLY FROM HIM INSTEAD OF FROM HIS ATTORNEY??? Did she ask herself or Adnan why his attorney would not want to touch those Asia letters with a 10 foot pole? Nah. Rabia already made up her mind that Gutierrez was a mean and incompetent attorney who needed to be fired. By meddling in the case, convincing Adnan's parents to fire Gutierrez before the appeal and spending time pursuing Asia's anti-alibi, Rabia actually hurt Adnan's chances for a reversal of the verdict. Sure, the prosecution's providing Jay with an attorney eventually ended up being the lead argument in the appeal, but how much time was wasted pursuing the Asia alibi? Rabia and Adnan's new attorneys spent valuable time spinning their wheels focusing their efforts on Asia only to have her recant her ridiculous story (which she is spinning again now years later because it's fun being famous). That time could have been used to gather additional facts surrounding the prosecution's failure to disclose the arrangement of the pro bono attorney. It could have been used to investigate Jay's prior arrests for drug dealing (1997) and disorderly conduct (January 1999) to establish that he clearly knew that there is a difference between a private criminal defense attorney and a public defender. It could have been used to sharpen their legal research and arguments to disqualify Jay's testimony instead of being forced to throw together a shoddy appeal brief when their main argument based on Asia's bogus affidavit blew up in their face. What makes matters worse, Rabia goes blogging to the world about how this lawyer who cannot defend herself because she is dead sucked at her job and was nothing but a money-grubbing bitch. The irony of the well-intentioned Rabia receiving and taking credit for bringing attention to Adnan’s case, writing books and going on speaking tours is that her meddling in the appeal guaranteed that Adnan would rot in prison. The sad part is that neither she nor her fans will ever understand that.
Adnan's Motive
Hae's letter to Adnan asking him to stop harassing her is pretty damning. They did not discuss it much on the podcast, but read it and you'll see that it's enough to establish motive even without the "i'm going to kill" note that was allegedly written in Adnan's handwriting on the back of the letter. The letter was found in Adnan's room after he was arrested. Rabia and her brother go out of their way to portray Adnan as a player. This "player's" first and only girlfriend dumped HIM. Hae broke up with Adnan in December 1998 and had been with Don for less than two weeks before she was killed (started dating Jan 1, 1999). A player does the dumping and Adnan was apparently not handling his dumpee status well. They broke up a couple of times before, but ended up getting back together. The narrative on Serial makes it sound like Adnan was taking the last break up in stride and got along ok with Don when they met to look at Hae's car. What Koenig fails to make clear is that at the time Adnan met Don, Hae and Don were CO-WORKERS at Lenscrafters and were not yet BF/GF, so Don was not a threat. Don went out to look at his CO-WORKER's car at a time described as before Christmas 1998 and BEFORE Don and Hae started dating. After learning that he had been replaced in early January 1999, the "player" became an ignited powder keg. Adnan's phone shows three calls to Hae the night before she was murdered. No calls on his phone the day she was killed. You would think he would at least try after getting a call from the cops that she's missing. On the flip side, we learn that Don didn't call Hae either, but they were together for less than 2 weeks. Adnan and Hae had a much longer history and when Adnan was calling Hae the night before her murder, she was on the other line with Don. If Hae told Adnan she had to get back to Don on the other line...boom goes the dynamite.
The above analysis made the entire case finally make sense to me. Why Asia's alibi was not used in the trial. Why Adnan kept his trap shut about the alibi and said nothing of it to his family or Rabia until after his conviction. Why Adnan did not lose his mind and curse Gutierrez for supposedly dropping the ball and not pursuing the Asia alibi. Why Adnan raised it to Rabia in desperation after he was convicted because he figured he had nothing to lose. Why Asia's fiancee stonewalled her participation in the appeal and made her recant her bogus affidavit because she likely told him the circumstances where Adnan asked her in advance to provide him with an alibi. Why Adnan was less than enthusiastic when Koenig told him that she found Asia--because he was scared that Koenig learned the truth about the bogus alibi, not at all because it was too late for his appeal as stated in the podcast. Asia continuing to stick with her story when speaking with Koenig is strange, but I'll bet she is no longer with that sensible fiancee who saved her from being charged with perjury. Also, how bad would she look if she admitted now that her letters and affidavit were bs? Finally, speaking with a reporter is different than giving sworn testimony in a court proceeding, but assuming Asia knows the difference would be giving her too much credit. In our celebrity-crazed society, Asia went from being a nobody to a household name. Given the choice of being elevated to the hero of a story everyone was taking about or universally reviled as a lying moron, she unsurprisingly embraced the former. You don’t need a sensitive bs meter to know Asia is full of it. Read Asia's letters to Adnan and her Affidavit. In these documents she is keenly aware of how important her testimony could be. Her words clearly state that she knows that Adnan needs to account for his time down to the specific range used later by the prosecution at the trial. Her words beg for someone to speak to her about the case so she can help. Now listen to her Serial interview with Koenig. She is as clueless as Donald Trump trying to answer questions about the ideas in Art of the Deal that he is capable of neither explaining nor understanding because it was ghost written for him. During Koenig's interview, Asia couldn't comprehend how she could have helped get Adnan off. This is even after Koenig spoon-feeds her as to how her testimony could have been exculpatory. So we are to believe that she somehow made the connection of the relevance of her testimony BEFORE the prosecution made its case (actually, before the police even finished their investigation), BEFORE anyone even knew the relevant time frame for which Adnan needed to account for himself, but afterward all she does is shrug and say she wishes there was "some technicality to prove his innocence." This is like hitting the trifecta at the track and failing to make the connection between your picks and the winning ticket--this might happen if you know nothing about horse racing and someone fixed the race and made the picks for you.
The anonymous caller was likely a guy from Adnan's mosque community--he clearly knew both Adnan and Yasser Ali who did not go to the same school as Adnan. I doubt the caller had specific knowledge about the murder or was involved, but more likely felt uncomfortable because of something an overconfident Adnan may have said (i.e. "I know what happened..." or "she got what she deserved" or the like...). One of the few things Adnan uttered in court during his trial was, "pathetic" directed to Jay. Is that what an innocent man says to the person who framed him for murder or is that what a mastermind co-conspirator says to the guy who sold him out? Does an innocent person claim that he doesn't know that Leakin Park (Hae's burial site) exists? Keep in mind that this park is 1000+ acres, one of the largest in the Baltimore area and about two miles from where Adnan went to high school.
The theory that Adnan was framed and the real killer used Jay as a puppet is ridiculous. Does it make any sense that a convicted murderer with rape being part of his MO who was released less than two weeks before Hae's murder colluded with Jay to kill (but not rape) and bury her? So Jay was really afraid of this now dead criminal who demanded Jay's help to bury the body of the woman who coincidentally happened to be the ex-girlfriend of the guy with whom Jay spent a good chunk of January 13, 1999 not to mention the fact that Jay spent several hours that same day driving the guy's car and talking on the guy's cell phone--Adnan's first cell phone that he bought the day before that he generously let his drug dealing friend use? Please...
Why did Jay go along with it?
Adnan: "Help me or I'll turn you in to the cops for dealing drugs."
Jay: "Well I'll turn you in to the cops for murder!"
Adnan: "Who do you think the cops will believe? A Southeast Asian American honors student on his way to college or a black dropout with a criminal record?"
I imagine the conversation went something like that and Jay said something to this effect in an interview from a few years ago. As to why Adnan reached out to Jay in the first place, as I'm sure others have postulated, his plan was always to pin it on Jay. Jay was the perfect patsy. Adnan's attempt to stage manage Jay's conviction fell apart with the botched Asia alibi, Jay getting his story to the cops first and Jay getting a plea deal.
Conclusion
The inconsistencies in Jay's story are irrelevant to the extent that the one common thread in his different versions is the time when HML was killed and buried. Jay likely lied to decrease his own involvement and increase Adnan's. The Asia letter shows that Adnan knew when the murder and burial took place. Serial should have ended after the first episode. Koenig could have nipped this entire story in the bud by asking Asia, who is now more than happy to discuss the matter, how she came to know by March 1, 1999 that Adnan needed to account for his time between 2:15 and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. I may be wrong, but I don't think Koenig was trying to deliberately deceive her audience. Her wanting to believe the story likely got in the way of her objectivity. As to the timing of the letters, it seems clear that although the first letter may have been written on March 1st, it was planned before Adnan was arrested. The second letter makes no sense. Why would Asia get so antsy and feel compelled to send another letter one day later, but not bother sending any letter one week later when solicited by Adnan's attorney? Adnan was just assigned a bunk. Give a brother a minute to get his bearings. Keep in mind he was just given a prisoner number that she miraculously was able to identify on March 2 as well as his address that he didn't know himself on March 6. Based on Ja'uan's April 20, 1999 interview, it seems pretty obvious that Adnan felt compelled to further "fix" his alibi following his indictment one week earlier by sending another request to his alibi accomplice and the March 2 letter was created after the fact.
Whether or not he deserves it, Adnan Syed will likely get a new trial. He has spent more than half his life in jail. The most just outcome would be if he were to sincerely apologize to HML's family, take a deal and plead guilty to manslaughter with release for time served. It would be more honest and less risky than continuing this innocence charade. I just wish the path to his new trial didn't plow through his dead lawyer's reputation.

I wrote this up four years ago, but hearing the case referenced earlier today prompted me to post this and hopefully put the matter to bed.
The purpose of this post is to use the facts to explain Christina Gutierrez's strategy--particularly why she did not rely on the letters or witness testimony of Asia McClain. Her instincts were spot on and the claim that Adnan Syed received ineffective assistance of counsel is a travesty. Apologies for the length, but if you followed this case, I promise that you will find this worthwhile.

• Was the prosecution's case full of holes? Yes.
• Did the State prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Adnan Syed murdered Hae Min Lee? Well, the jury believed that they did.
• Should Adnan have been found guilty based on the case made by the State? Probably, but if Jay’s testimony was tossed out on appeal, no.
• Did religious/cultural discrimination play a factor in Adnan's conviction? Probably.
• Did Adnan's attorney, Christina Gutierrez screw up? On the surface it may appear so, but no, she did not.
• Was Adnan Syed involved in the murder of Hae Min Lee (HML)? YES, but not because of any evidence presented by the prosecution. The facts and analysis below show how the most compelling evidence proving Adnan Syed's guilt was not provided by the State. It was provided by his strongest advocate, Rabia Chaudry, who doggedly pursued the Asia alibi.

The March 1, 1999 letter from Asia McClain--incorrectly regarded by many as exculpatory--actually implicates Adnan and proves that he played a role in HML's murder.
The greatest injustice exposed through the Serial Podcast was not what happened to Adnan Syed, but how Christina Gutierrez was portrayed. Based solely on her grossly misinterpreted handling of the Asia McClain letters, every move that Gutierrez made makes perfect sense and her strategy was sound. To best understand the case, we should start with a timeline. There are a lot of timelines out there, but they contain partial or extraneous information. The details of whether there was a meeting at Best Buy, who made the Nisha call, etc. are not included because they are not necessary to prove Adnan’s guilt or the effectiveness of Gutierrez as his counsel.
1998
Early December: Adnan and Hae break up.
Mid-December: Adnan and Don look at Hae's car at her job at Lenscrafters. Adnan has no problem with Don and gets along fine, but Don is only Hae's coworker at this time (relevance: motive).
1999
January 1: Don and Hae start dating.
January 12: Adnan purchases his cell phone (first time he owned one) and starts using it that evening.
January 12: Hae spends evening with Don.
January 12: Adnan calls Hae three times between 11:27 PM and 12:35 AM.
January 13: Hae is killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM (the one consistent thread in Jay's multiple statements and testimony, also Adnan's cell was pinging Leakin Park burial site between 7 PM and 8 PM).
January 13: Adnan called by police at 6:24 PM asking if he knows Hae's whereabouts and speaks with them until about 6:30 PM (cell pings tower near Cathy's house).
January 13: Between 7:09 PM and 8:05 PM all four calls to/from Adnan's cell ping Leakin Park towers near Hae's burial site.
Jan 13 to Feb 9: Police question Adnan and Don multiple times pursuant to investigation of Hae's disappearance. Police do not assume anything about if/when Hae could have been killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 9: Hae's body found by Mr. S. Medical examiner determines that Hae was strangled, but cannot determine when she was killed (relevance: timeline not yet established by police).
February 12: Anonymous call to cops telling them to look at Hae's ex. Anonymous tipster calls again telling cops to talk to Yasser Ali who might know more.
February 15: Police speak with Yasser who says he knows nothing (relevance: Goes without saying that Yasser tells his friend Adnan that the cops are investigating him and Adnan likely starts establishing his Asia alibi).
February 16-25: Police subpoena Adnan's cell records, identify the numbers called and see that the most frequently called number was Jenn (Jay's friend)
February 26: Police try to contact Jenn and she says it's not a good time.
February 26: Jenn goes to Jay and tells him that the police tried to question her about Hae. According to Jenn's story, Jay tells her what to say to police about the murder and tells her send the police to him (relevance: Jay knows its a question of time before police connect him with the calls and knows that he needs to get ahead of the story).
February 26: Jenn talks to the police (goes alone), but says that she knows nothing (relevance: Contrary to Jenn's story, Jay likely told Jenn to stall while he figures out what she should tell the cops and gives her full account the next day after Jay puts together his version of events).
February 26: Police speak with Adnan (relevance: Adnan by now certainly knows he needs an alibi, but police do not have a time line yet).
February 27: Jenn speaks with police again (with her mom and attorney present). This time she tells the police that Jay told her that Adnan strangled Hae. No timeline established although she says that Jay was at her house between 3:45 PM and 4:15 PM on Jan 13.
February 27: Police speak with Adnan (probably more aggressively in view of Jenn's statement)
February 27: Jay sweating bullets all day at his job at the adult video store waiting for police to contact him and wondering if Adnan got his version of the story to the police first. Police have Jay come in for questioning for the first time (relevance: Jay is not fearful of Adnan physically doing something to him. He is scared that Adnan will throw him under the bus. Jay is definitely not scared--as Rabia Chaudry and the Innocence Project allege--that some random rapist/murderer who was released from prison less than two weeks earlier to whom Jay has no connection is making Jay help cover his tracks).
February 28: Later the same night he was brought in by the cops, Jay gives up Adnan and provides the general timeline that establishes that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 and 8 PM (consistent with his subsequent statements and testimony). This is the first time the police have a timeline for Hae's murder and burial. This timeline is not yet publicly available, so as far as the public knows, Hae was killed and buried some time between January 13 and February 9.
February 28: Adnan arrested for Hae's murder (this is a Sunday)
March 1: A day after Adnan is arrested, the first Asia letter sent, She states that she can account for some of Adnan's "unwitnessed, unaccountable time" between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. The ink is not yet dry on Jay's non-public statement. The letter was written before the police start to even check whether Adnan has an alibi.
March 2: Second Asia letter reiterating that she can account for Adnan's time (does not provide a time range in second letter). Asks why he has not yet told police about this.
March 31: Adnan's bail hearing where he is represented by two attorneys (Gutierrez not yet involved. Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan showed the Asia letters to these two attorneys.
After March 31: Christina Gutierrez hired to defend Adnan and at some point before the first trial is told by Adnan about the Asia letters.
July 7: Gutierrez files a demand letter with the court complaining that the prosecution had not provided info on when HML was killed and that “Defendant can’t possibly mount a defense or determine if an alibi disclosure is needed without being on notice of the alleged time of death.” (relevance: THIS IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHY GUTIERREZ DID NOT USE ASIA--More than four months after the Asia letters, Adnan was still not told of the State's timeline, but Asia somehow used her fortune teller skills to identify the precise time for which Adnan needed an alibi).
September 7: Jay enters plea deal that is contingent upon Jay telling truth. If his testimony is proven to be false, State could bring any charge against Jay including murder.
2000
February 18: Gutierrez learns for the first time almost six weeks into the second trial and after the State rests that the prosecutor arranged for Jay's free private defense attorney.
February 25: Adnan found guilty
June 6: Adnan sentenced to life plus 30
July 6: Jay sentenced to probation (under deal was facing max 5 years)
​
The way alibis typically work: a suspect is questioned by the police based on when they believe the crime was committed. The suspect is asked to account for his time and if anyone could confirm the suspect's story that he was somewhere else at the time the crime was committed. If the suspect has an alibi, the police investigate whether the alibi checks out. Adnan was arrested on Feb 28. Before the cops or prosecution even questioned Adnan about his whereabouts on January 13, Asia went ahead and provided him with an alibi within 24 hours of his arrest.
The most important feature of the above timeline is that before Jay's statements, neither the police nor the public were operating under the assumption that Hae was killed and buried between 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM on January 13. Some thought she was with Don. Some thought she went to California to see her father. Gutierrez herself argued at trial that Hae could have been killed Jan 13 or Jan 14 or Jan 15, etc. At the time Adnan was arrested, all that was known was that HML was last seen on January 13th and that she was killed and buried some time between January 13th and February 9th. HML could have been stuffed in the trunk of her car alive by Jay on January 13 and killed the next day or the day after that. If Adnan was charged with HML's kidnapping, an alibi for January 13 would have relevance, but he was not. He was charged with murder, the timing of which was not known to the public or an innocent man until AFTER March 1, 1999. The only evidence establishing the January 13 timeline of Hae's murder and burial is Jay's testimony, which was unknown to the public as of March 1, 1999.
Nothing in the record indicates that Adnan told the police about Asia after he was arrested. Keep in mind that Adnan had not yet hired Gutierrez until several weeks after receiving the first Asia letter. Why would he keep this alibi from the police? It obviously had nothing to do with the fact that he could not remember that he saw her on Jan 13 because she clearly states in her letter that she could vouch for him. Adnan also did not raise the Asia letters to his attorneys that handled the bail hearing. He kept his mouth shut about the Asia letters because he realized that he screwed up. Asia's first letter came ONE DAY after Jay told the police the first and only account of when Hae was killed and buried (between 2:15 PM to 8 PM on Jan 13). Asia did not write her letter in response to questions for the police who by her own account had never spoken with her. Yet, she provides a detail in her letter offering to help Adnan account for his time, specifically between 2:15 to 8:00 PM (see page 2 of her March 31 letter). If Asia simply offered to help Adnan account for some his time on January 13, it would have been suspicious because it would imply knowledge of Jenn and Jay's private statements to the police given on Feb 27 and 28, respectively. Asia specifically identifying the relevant time frame precludes the possibility that she was just innocently trying to help Adnan and that he had nothing to do with prearranging the alibi letters. Only after the prosecution committed to the 21 minute time frame when they argued that Hae was killed did Asia with Rabia's help narrow her 5.75 hour range to a 20 minute stretch in her affidavit that overlaps with the State's story. Keep in mind also that the affidavit was prepared one year after Asia wrote her two letters. By including that detail in her first letter, Asia unwittingly revealed that Adnan planned his alibi before being arrested and knew when Hae was killed and buried independent of Jay's statements. Thus, Asia's letter does the exact opposite of providing Adnan with an alibi. It proves that Adnan had knowledge of Hae's murder and burial which he failed to report at any time before his arrest. Adnan probably figured out that he screwed up by having Asia provide the alibi before he was ever questioned against Jay's timeline. How could he show the cops the letters without implicating himself? "Officers, I know you have not yet revealed your theory of when Hae was killed and buried, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that at some point you will ask me about my whereabouts between 2:15 PM and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. Well, I happened to receive this letter a day after you arrested me that by remarkable coincidence covers me for that exact same time frame to which I imagine you will refer some time in the future as my 'unwitnessed, unaccountable lost time.' Hell, Asia even knew you would refer to it using that exact language! Obviously, this letter proves that I had nothing to do with the incident that allegedly took place at a time I could have not known about unless I was involved in Hae's murder." Oops. He thought he was playing it safe by having Asia cover him for the entire time that Hae was killed and buried. The crazy thing is, it appears that during his Feb 28, 1999 arrest that the cops NEVER questioned him against Jay's timline. The arresting officers' interview notes do not ever mention it. In fact, Gutierrez complained to the judge FOUR MONTHS AFTER Asia wrote her letter that the prosecution had not yet provided a time of death against which her client could provide an alibi! This compounds how ridiculous Asia's letter is.
Gutierrez's Strategy
Asia Letter
Later, when Gutierrez took over Adnan's defense, her notes indicate that Adnan told her about the Asia alibi. He figured he would see if she could find a way to use the Asia letters. She likely determined immediately that Asia's first letter is poison to the defense and proves only that Adnan had to be involved. Her first line of questions to Adnan: How did Asia know the relevant time frame (2:15 PM to 8:00 PM) the day after Jay made his non-public statement to the cops? Why does she provide such a wide range of 2:15 PM and 8:00 PM when she can only account for "some of your time?" How could she know within 24 hours of your arrest that you had any “unwitnessed, unaccountable lost time” let alone the relevant 5.75 hour stretch on January 13, 1999 when the public did not yet know when HML was killed and buried? Her second line of questions: Did you talk to Asia before you were arrested? Did you tell her what to say in her letter? How will she explain how she knew what time Jay would say you murdered and buried Hae? Do you know how much trouble she will be in if she perjures herself to help you establish an alibi? How confident are you that she will stick to her story if the prosecutors lean on her by hammering away that the penalty for perjury in Maryland is up to 10 years in prison? Her third line which likely remained in her mind: If you weren't involved in Hae's murder, how could you have known that you needed an alibi between 2:15 PM and 8 PM BEFORE Jay gave his first statement to the cops and BEFORE the cops even asked you anything about that time? She probably only needed to ask a couple of the preceding questions before realizing that she had to keep Asia out of the case for Adnan to have a shot. She likely shamed him by warning that if he knows what's good for him he will never bring Asia up to her again. If she gave the prosecution wind of Asia's anti-alibi by interviewing her, she knew they could use Asia as a witness to crucify Adnan. She kept Asia out to protect him. So Gutierrez knew that her client was involved in the murder for which he was accused. Hardly unusual for a criminal defense attorney, but unfortunately, the case doesn't end when you realize your client is not innocent. She still had to defend him and make the prosecution prove their case.
Not atacking the State's Timeline
The prosecutors made a deal with Jay. He agreed to plead to accessory after the fact in exchange for being the State's witness against Adnan. This is also key to Gutierrez's strategy: Jay's deal was contingent upon telling the truth. It specifically states that if it becomes evident that Jay is lying, his deal is voided and the state can bring any charges against him including murder. The terms of the deal were laid out during the State's direct examination of Jay.
Jay's deal poses a strategic problem for Gutierrez. Because of the Asia letter, she knows that Adnan was involved in Hae's murder. If she destroys Jay's testimony and proves that he lied by exposing the holes in his story, Jay's deal gets voided and he becomes fair game for the prosecution. That's fine if Jay acted alone, but she knew that wasn't the case. Jay is still weak on motive, but he would likely be forced to admit that he played a more active role in Hae's murder. While the prosecution's initial story is full of holes, if Jay comes clean, the holes would likely disappear and make the State's case against Adnan much stronger. Of course, Jay would be exposed as a liar, but his second story would fit the cell tower records and the testimony of other witnesses much better. This would put Gutierrez in a position of having to defend Adnan against what she knows to be true, the prosecution’s case would no longer hinge on Jay’s testimony alone resulting in even more of an uphill battle for the defense. I'm not saying that she made the right call, but her strategy of not attacking the time line is not obviously wrong.
What does that leave Gutierrez in terms of tactics? Attacking Jay's credibility and bolstering Adnan's character through favorable witness testimony. She reminds the jury at every opportunity that Jay works in a porn video store. She reminds them that he admitted lying to the cops in his earlier statements about what he knew. But she does not expose him as a liar for any statements he made during the trial lest it destroy his deal and expose Adnan to yet another version of the story--the REAL story--against which she would likely have a more difficult time defending her client. Add to that having to defend Adnan from the State's thinly veiled assertions that he comes from an "honor killing" culture and you can see how she really had her work cut out for her.
Then the State gives Gutierrez a HUGE gift by not disclosing the terms of how the district attorney arranged for Jay's pro bono attorney. Gutierrez pounced on this fact and did what she could by focusing on the impropriety of the State failing to disclose that it provided a private attorney for Jay. If the trial court judge agreed and ordered the jury to disregard Jay's testimony, the state's case would crumble. Anyway, the trial judge denied Gutierrez's attempt to have Jay's testimony tossed, but she preserved her objections for appeal the focus of which would be that the court erred in allowing Jay's testimony. Gutierrez’s plan was to have the testimony of the prosecution's key witness thrown out without having to prove that he lied. This means that Adnan goes free and Jay keeps his deal and is immune from the prosecution going after him to get the real story because his testimony getting dumped was the prosecution's fault not Jay's. Kind of brilliant, if you ask me.
Gutierrez's Courtroom Style and Treatment of Adnan's Parents.
Based on what I heard from the audio recordings, yes, Gutierrez's elocution left something to be desired. Having seen litigators of varying skill in action, I can see how her style might be effective if she is underscoring the sloppiness of the State's case and trying to make them sound ridiculous. The long, drawn out histrionics can leave a good impression on a jury if you have the right material like when she hammered away at how the prosecutor arranged for Jay's pro bono attorney. As to the rest of the case though, she was handcuffed and did not have much she could sink her teeth into to make the prosecution look stupid. Her questioning ended up being meandering and her style was grating and likely ended up doing more harm. But having an attorney with an annoying voice and style is not grounds for seeking a new trial.
As to Gutierrez's disposition towards Adnan's parents that Rabia blogs about, if I was Gutierrez and knew what she knew and had to deal with her murdering sociopath client's clueless parents and their wet-behind-the-ears law student friend each convinced of his innocence, I would probably not have any patience for them either. She CAN'T tell them her strategy because it is largely based on the fact that Adnan was involved in the murder ("I CAN'T poke holes in the timeline because then Jay will be forced to tell the truth and your son won't have a snowball's chance in hell."). More importantly, the strategy is protected by attorney client privilege and her disbarment would have come a few years earlier if she laid it out for them. Rabia bashes Gutierrez for focusing exclusively on the appeal and accuses her of squeezing as much money as she could out of the case. What Rabia doesn't realize is that if they stuck with Gutierrez or at least kept her on to assist with the appeal if her health became a factor, Adnan would have had a better shot at getting off by focusing exclusively on having Jay's testimony thrown out. After finding out about Asia, did Rabia ask Gutierrez why she didn't use her? Was it possible that this seasoned attorney might have a strategy that she could not disclose to this law student family friend operating on 100% emotion and 0% experience? Nah. Rabia already made up her mind that Gutierrez was a mean and incompetent attorney who needed to be fired. By meddling in the case, convincing Adnan's parents to fire Gutierrez before the appeal and spending time pursuing Asia's anti-alibi, Rabia actually hurt Adnan's chances for a reversal of the verdict. Sure, the prosecution's providing Jay with an attorney eventually ended up being the lead argument in the appeal, but how much time was wasted pursuing the Asia alibi? Rabia and Adnan's new attorneys spent valuable time spinning their wheels focusing their efforts on Asia only to have her recant her ridiculous story (which she is spinning again now years later because it's fun being famous). That time could have been used to gather additional facts surrounding the prosecution's failure to disclose the arrangement of the pro bono attorney. It could have been used to investigate Jay's prior arrests for drug dealing (1997) and disorderly conduct (January 1999) to establish that he clearly knew that there is a difference between a private criminal defense attorney and a public defender. It could have been used to sharpen their legal research and arguments to disqualify Jay's testimony instead of being forced to throw together a shoddy appeal brief when their main argument based on Asia's bogus affidavit blew up in their face. What makes matters worse, Rabia goes blogging to the world about how this lawyer who cannot defend herself because she is dead sucked at her job and was nothing but a money-grubbing bitch. The irony of the well-intentioned Rabia receiving and taking credit for bringing attention to Adnan’s case, writing books and going on speaking tours is that her meddling in the appeal guaranteed that Adnan would rot in prison. The sad part is that neither she nor her fans will ever understand that.
Adnan's Motive
Hae's letter to Adnan asking him to stop harassing her is pretty damning. They did not discuss it much on the podcast, but read it and you'll see that it's enough to establish motive even without the "i'm going to kill" note that was allegedly written in Adnan's handwriting on the back of the letter. The letter was found in Adnan's room after he was arrested. Rabia and her brother go out of their way to portray Adnan as a player. This "player's" first and only girlfriend dumped HIM. Hae broke up with Adnan in December 1998 and had been with Don for less than two weeks before she was killed (started dating Jan 1, 1999). A player does the dumping and Adnan was apparently not handling his dumpee status well. They broke up a couple of times before, but ended up getting back together. The narrative on Serial makes it sound like Adnan was taking the last break up in stride and got along ok with Don when they met to look at Hae's car. What Koenig fails to make clear is that at the time Adnan met Don, Hae and Don were CO-WORKERS at Lenscrafters and were not yet BF/GF, so Don was not a threat. Don went out to look at his CO-WORKER's car at a time described as before Christmas 1998 and BEFORE Don and Hae started dating. After learning that he had been replaced in early January 1999, the "player" became an ignited powder keg. Adnan's phone shows three calls to Hae the night before she was murdered. No calls on his phone the day she was killed. You would think he would at least try after getting a call from the cops that she's missing. On the flip side, we learn that Don didn't call Hae either, but they were together for less than 2 weeks. Adnan and Hae had a much longer history and when Adnan was calling Hae the night before her murder, she was with Don. If Hae told Adnan she was with Don...boom goes the dynamite.
The above analysis made the entire case finally make sense to me. Why Asia's alibi was not used in the trial. Why Adnan kept his trap shut about the alibi and said nothing of it to his family or Rabia until after his conviction. Why Adnan did not lose his mind and curse Gutierrez for supposedly dropping the ball and not pursuing the Asia alibi. Why Adnan raised it to Rabia in desperation after he was convicted because he figured he had nothing to lose. Why Asia's fiancee stonewalled her participation in the appeal and made her recant her bogus affidavit because she likely told him the circumstances where Adnan asked her in advance to provide him with an alibi. Why Adnan was less than enthusiastic when Koenig told him that she found Asia--because he was scared that Koenig learned the truth about the bogus alibi, not at all because it was too late for his appeal as stated in the podcast. Asia continuing to stick with her story when speaking with Koenig is strange, but I'll bet she is no longer with that sensible fiancee who saved her from being charged with perjury. Also, how bad would she look if she admitted now that her letters and affidavit were bs? Finally, speaking with a reporter is different than giving sworn testimony in a court proceeding, but assuming Asia knows the difference would be giving her too much credit. In our celebrity-crazed society, Asia went from being a nobody to a household name. Given the choice of being elevated to the hero of a story everyone was taking about or universally reviled as a lying moron, she unsurprisingly embraced the former. You don’t need a sensitive bs meter to know Asia is full of it. Read Asia's letters to Adnan and her Affidavit. In these documents she is keenly aware of how important her testimony could be. Her words clearly state that she knows that Adnan needs to account for his time down to the specific range used later by the prosecution at the trial. Her words beg for someone to speak to her about the case so she can help. Now listen to her Serial interview with Koenig. She is as clueless as Donald Trump trying to answer questions about the ideas in Art of the Deal that he is capable of neither explaining nor understanding because it was ghost written for him. During Koenig's interview, Asia couldn't comprehend how she could have helped get Adnan off. This is even after Koenig spoon-feeds her as to how her testimony could have been exculpatory. So we are to believe that she somehow made the connection of the relevance of her testimony BEFORE the prosecution made its case (actually, before the police even finished their investigation), BEFORE anyone even knew the relevant time frame for which Adnan needed to account for himself, but afterward all she does is shrug and say she wishes there was "some technicality to prove his innocence." This is like hitting the trifecta at the track and failing to make the connection between your picks and the winning ticket--this might happen if you know nothing about horse racing and someone fixed the race and made the picks for you.
The anonymous caller was likely a guy from Adnan's mosque community--he clearly knew both Adnan and Yasser Ali who did not go to the same school as Adnan. I doubt the caller had specific knowledge about the murder or was involved, but more likely felt uncomfortable because of something an overconfident Adnan may have said (i.e. "I know what happened..." or "she got what she deserved" or the like...). One of the few things Adnan uttered in court during his trial was, "you're pathetic" directed to Jay. Is that what an innocent man says to the person who framed him for murder or is that what a mastermind co-conspirator says to the guy who sold him out? Does an innocent person claim that he doesn't know that Leakin Park (Hae's burial site) exists? Keep in mind that this park is 1000+ acres, one of the largest in the Baltimore area and about two miles from where Adnan went to high school.
The theory that Adnan was framed and the real killer used Jay as a puppet is ridiculous. Does it make any sense that a convicted murderer with rape being part of his MO who was released less than two weeks before Hae's murder colluded with Jay to kill (but not rape) and bury her? So Jay was really afraid of this now dead criminal who demanded Jay's help to bury the body of the woman who coincidentally happened to be the ex-girlfriend of the guy with whom Jay spent a good chunk of January 13, 1999 not to mention the fact that Jay spent several hours that same day driving the guy's car and talking on the guy's cell phone--Adnan's first cell phone that he bought the day before that he generously let his drug dealing friend use? Please...
Why did Jay go along with it?
Adnan: "Help me or I'll turn you in to the cops for dealing drugs."
Jay: "Well I'll turn you in to the cops for murder!"
Adnan: "Who do you think the cops will believe? A Southeast Asian American honors student on his way to college or a black dropout with a criminal record?"
I imagine the conversation went something like that and Jay said something to this effect in an interview from a few years ago. As to why Adnan reached out to Jay in the first place, as I'm sure others have postulated, his plan was always to pin it on Jay. Jay was the perfect patsy. Adnan's attempt to stage manage Jay's conviction fell apart with the botched Asia alibi, Jay getting his story to the cops first and Jay getting a plea deal.
Conclusion
The inconsistencies in the details of the timeline are irrelevant. Jay likely lied to decrease his own involvement and increase Adnan's. As to Jay's recent interview 15 years after the fact, it is an irrevocable fact that Adnan's cell was pinging the towers near Hae's burial site between 7 and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. The Asia letter shows that Adnan knew when the murder and burial took place. Serial should have ended after the first episode. Koenig could have nipped this entire story in the bud by asking Asia, who is now more than happy to discuss the matter, how she came to know by March 1, 1999 that Adnan needed to account for his time between 2:15 and 8 PM on January 13, 1999. I may be wrong, but I don't think Koenig was trying to deliberately deceive her audience. Her wanting to believe the story likely got in the way of her objectivity. *Update* Adnan Syed has spent more than half his life in jail. There are individuals walking free among us who have committed worse crimes and served less time. Although I am certain of his guilt, I also think he was just a stupid kid who committed a terrible crime, thought he could outsmart the system and paid a price. He may have been a budding sociopath when he went in, but he did not get away with his crime and I'm not sure he is the same conniving, duplicitous piece of crap anymore. He should get a new trial. The most just outcome would be if he were to sincerely apologize to HML's family, take a deal and plead guilty to manslaughter with release for time served. It would be more honest and less risky than continuing this innocence charade. I just wish the path to his new trial didn't plow through his dead lawyer's reputation. Ineffective assistance of counsel...that's like convincing the Vatican that Michelangelo was an ineffective artist but ignoring the fact that after he finished the ceiling, the true incompetents went into the Sistine Chapel and had a paintball fight.

Ive been lurking the pages of sportsbook now for a while, have been paper tailing, and doing MOR before placing my bets down. Ive decided to take the plunge in.
Before I start depositing I wanted to know whether I could get some tips from the horse's mouth. What do you wish you knew before you first started. For example, should I max out my initial deposit to get the most of out of the matching deposit bonus?
Perhaps what you find to be most important in maintaining a profitable bank roll and icreasing projection without increasing risk?
Sites to compare stats, updates on injury lists, perhaps even tipsters that don't post on sportsbook?
Ive got time and would appreciate any info, feel free to message also.

I wanted to see how sharp the bookies are in their opening odds and what edge someone could have with the perfect model.
I took the the opening odds for all home wins from 5 random league and converted those into a vig free home win percentage.
Then I looked at the game results and compared those to the bookmaker's predictions.
I had the bookie's vig free home win % in one cell and in another I put 1 for a home win and 0 for an away win/draw.
Then I took the average home win % for all the games in my database (8+ years worth) and compared that to the average results (the cell with 1's and 0's)
Here's what I found.
Difference between bookie's predicted home win % and actual home win %.
MLS: 2.98%
Liga MX: 1.54%
Asian Champions League: 1.4%
Argentinian Primera B: 0.33%
English Premier League: 0.23%
First of all, does this makes sense? Is this the right way of determining line efficiency? I didn't think that the opening odds would be this efficient.
If these numbers are correct, how does anyone make money on the popular league like the Premier League and US Sports? 0.23% is just too low no matter how much volume you can get down.

1. Is the secret being selective with your bets? So, if a perfect model for MLS could achieve a maximum 2.98% ROI betting every game. A more selective model, maybe betting 1/5th of all games could produce a ROI of 8%+ (random number)? Am I thinking about this correctly?
   
2. Is making a profit from Asian books really possible for someone that's not a programming/math super genius? And when I say make a profit, I mean making enough money from betting that you can do this full time. I don't want to put in the effort to learn the skills I need if the only people making money from betting are the big syndicates, bookmakers, and scummy tipsters.
   

If beating Asian books is possible, what are some resources that can take me from math/programming newbie to someone that can build a profitable model?
Maybe some paid courses or online tutoring would be a good idea to speed up the learning process? I tried learning R with datacamp but found it pretty difficult. Maybe I'll have an easier time with Python?
A few years ago I spent a lot of time gathering data and building an Elo/Poisson based model in Excel. Even hired someone to build me a scraper so I could factor in lineup strength as one of the variables. In the end even when using advance metrics like xG I couldn't come up with something that beat the closing line.
I think the reason I wasn't successful is because I was implementing things incorrectly. My inputs may have been good but I was taking the wrong steps when it came to coming up with the outputs (each team's predicted goals > home/win odds using Poisson)
Everything I've seen online when it comes to modeling soccer is either too primitive (no profit) or the math behind it is too complicated for me to understand. For example the math parts in the Dixon & Coles paper are like reading something in Chinese for me.
edit: I searched around soccerbetting after making this post and it seems like some people are making a profit in major leagues with what seem like basic shot based models. Seems a little too good to be true to be honest.
3) Right now my main source of income is online poker. For those of you familiar with poker, in terms of difficulty, how does creating profitable models compare with poker? I'm assuming that it's a lot harder to make a profit in leagues where gameday limits are 30k+.
For example.
Max $500 Pinnacle limit league = 50NL
Max $1000 Pinnacle limit league = 100NL
Max $2000 Pinnacle limit league = 200NL
Max $5000 Pinnacle limit league = 500NL
Max $10000 Pinnacle limit league = 1000NL
I've already had some success with betting. I made a good amount of money following tipsters (believe it or not) in the past. Was profitable over a 3 year stretch betting huge volume. Bankroll was big enough that I had a cheeky 5K bet on Japan to win the 2014 World Cup lol.
Then after buying a condo and fancy car I hit a nasty downswing that pretty much wiped me out. I presumed that the market got a lot smarter (or maybe I just I was just on the positive side of variance for thousands of bets) and the tipsters I was following were no longer profitable, so I gave up betting.
Now I play online poker full time, but I'm not passionate about it. I love football and I love betting. I want to find a way to win again.

This is going to be a long read, and English is not my tongue language so excuse me in case there are some grammar mistakes.
I will try to explain from my experience which methods I have used during the last two years to make money in this business. Some of them worked pretty well, some of them not that good, but still I want to share with you guys some tips specially for those who just began on Betting.
To make this clear: The strategy I used and I am still using to make money on betting is the Bonus Hunting strategy I am explaining below. The rest of this post are tips and other methods which I have tryied but *not with that good results, and of course, with risk*
BETTING TIPS
There are PLENTY of amazing posts / comments about this here, but it's always good the have a reminder. From my experience this are some of them:

• Fix STAKES and learn how to manage your bankroll before start betting. You don't need to have 10 different stakes, 2 or 3 are fine if you know how to manage them. Professional tipsters they sometimes use a flat stake and sometimes 2-3 different ones. Of course you can't put the same amount of money @10 than you put at @2.
  
• From my experience, the best odd-range is 1,8-2,2. That's mostly the range professional tipsters are using.
  
• Be carefull with multiple bets, it's okay to bet on 10 matches a small ammount of money to see if you get lucky, we all do that. But if you are betting bigger ammounts I wouldn't recommend more than 2-3 different bets.
  
• If you LOSE, you LOSE. You don't double the next bet to take back, you don't do stupid moves. You wait until the next opportunity.
  
• Whitdraw part of your benefits when they come.
  
• Get used to ASIAN LINES, specially those 0,25 / 0,75 since it's an amazing way to control the risk.
  
• Do your research before betting. You don't bet on a team to win just because they won the last three matches. Check the sidebar, check more statistics, check who is injury, check the line-ups if there are doubts about if some player will finally play. And really important, CHECK THE ODDS EVOLUTION, If Team 1 has won the last matches, playing good, appartently no injuries... and the odd has raised a lot the last hour ask yourself WHY. Before smiling because you may make more profit, think twice and do your research again because seems like someone knows something that you don't about this match. Specially if the odd has raised from @2 to @2.2 in 1 minute, because that means that someone has put a huge ammount of money there, and probably he knows more than you. Be aware of that specially on small markets (Non-important leagues). You can see the odd moves in oddsportal (check sidebar).
  
• Use a Betting house that don't limit you. I have been limited a lot of times, sometimes just after one bet, so please do yourself a favour. Pinnacle is an excelent option.
  
• There are not magic strategies to make money on betting.
  
• 115-120% ROI it's an amazing monthly mark to professional tipsters, be realistic about your profit forecast.
  
• Sign up in many betting houses. Check the odds and select the best one. Long-run makes huge difference.
  

1. BONUS HUNTING

• Strategy without risk, once you master it.

That's way so far the best betting method I have ever used. It takes time to Master but it's really simply an everybody can do it. I am sure you all have heard of that. Just in case you didn't do it yet, here's a basic guide:
Eg) Bet365 offers €100 to new Users if you deposit €100. (They also give a €50 phone-bonus with small requeriments). Of course you can not withdraw the money inmediatly. You have to move the money X times before that.
The requeriments for Bet365 in Spain are x4. So Bonus money + Deposit money x4. That makes 800 EUR. And the minimum odd is 1,5 and you CAN'T bet on Asian Lines.
What do I do now? Well, you just have to sign up in different betting houses and move the money. Or in other words, bet against yourself. You will need a Surebet software for that, you can easily find one on the Internet. In my case I use this one because it's pretty simple.
All the betting softwares work more or less the same way, they show:
-Profit: Bet between -1,5% +2,5%. AVOID betting at 45% surebets because that's a mistake from the bookies, they will change your odd after betting if you get lucky to place your bet before they notice of their mistake.
-Bookmarker: Here it will show up between which bookmarkers you have to place your bet. For example, you have now €200 in Bet365, and you just sign up on Pinnacle. Then you have to deposit money on Pinnacle and place the bet in both websites. Let's say Arsenal-Chelsea. Over 2,5 goals in Bet365 is @2 and Under 2,5 goals in Pinnacle is @2,03. No matter what happens that you will make 0,83% profit and you will have moved €200 of those €800 you have to move. Or even better than that, let's say the Final Score of the match is 1-1, so U2,5 goals. In that case you would have won your bet on Pinnacle, which means that you would have made aprox. €200 profit on Pinnacle and you would have lost €100 in Bet365 (Remember that from those €200 just €100 are yours, the rest is the bonus part). You have won €200 on Pinn, you have lost €100 on Bet. So totally you have made €100 in just one bet.
That's the best case, hunting the bonus in just one move. If the final score would have been 2-2, then you would have made your 0,83% profit and keep betting between Bet365 and other bookies until you would have moved the €800.
-Event: That's where you are going to bet. YOU NEVER BET ON SPORTS OR MARKETS BEFORE DOING RESEARCH.
Eg) Liverpool-Aston Villla
Over 3,5 cards @2
Under 3.5 cards @2
Seems like a good way to move your money. But you have to know that a red card in some BH is considered as 1 card and in some others is considered as 2 yellow cards.
Let's say there was 2 yellow cards and 1 red card: That would make 3 cards in one BH and 4 in another one. Imagine O3,5 was were the red cards count as one and U3,5 where red cards count as two. You would have lost all your money.
How do I know which ammount I have to bet on every case? Let's say you have found a nice 2,7% profit bet between two betting houses and you have a bonus in one of them. You will get the bonus and also the profit, that's a good one. This betting house offers a €100 bonus if you deposit the same amount. So now you would bet €200 in one side and X amount on the other side.
Let's say ManUtd vs Hull City:
MU Asian Handicap -0,5 @1,97 - Betting House 1 (You have the bonus here)
Hull City X2 @2,06 - Betting House 2
You would bet €200 @1,97 at BH 1 and €191,26 at BH2. Here's the link from one calculator I'm using (all work the same way).
THINGS YOU MUST KNOW:

• If you are hunting one bonus between two betting houses and you don't know which amount of money they will allow you to bet, you check the max. bet on the one that shows you the bet limits, and once you know that bet in the other BH first. or you could have troubles. If the Event is really big then you don't have to, but on small markets you must.
  
• Avoid Too-high profit surebets, Move your money between -1,5% and 3,4,5,7%.. maximum. You don't bet €200 at profit 56% because that's a bookie mistake and that's a really small market which will probably all you to bet no more than €25. If you get in there, the bookie most probably will send you a message saying that your odds has been changed. You will pay their mistake.
  
• You don't bet €200 anywhere, be carefull. If the bonus have high rolleover requirements such as move €1600 EUR, you don't move €400 in one bet. That's suspicious. Keep it simple, move €200 maximum and in normal events like Premier League Matches, La Liga, Serie A, FA Cup, UCL, EL, NBA, Main Basketball Leagues... that's ok. Remember to check always the limits before betting.
  
• Do RESEARCH BEFORE STARTING. Make a new Excel document, and write down all the betting houses you are going to hunt bonus from. Check their conditions, you are not interested on making €50 if you have to move €2000. That's a waste of your time. Also check all the payment methods, I recommend NetelleSkrill or PayPal, easier and faster. Write down all the documents you are going to need for the withdrawal. Check reviews from the betting houses, try to avoid the new ones, let them settle down first.
  

You can only hunt the bonus ONCE per person which means that If you want to continue doing this method you will have to find more people who wants to do it. That's what I have done, friends of mine gave me the documents I needed + PayPal/NetelleSkrill verified account and I do it for them. Of course I pay them around €100-€150. Which is not bad money for them considering they have to do nothing almost. Is it hard to find people? Well, I have 6 on the line right now, everybody wants money for free specially if they are students.
How much money do I need for getting started? I would say around €500. So you can sign up for a €100 Bonus depositing €200 in another house and you still have some extra-money just in case you win all your bets on the 'Bonus Betting House' and you haven't moved enough money to make the withdrawal yet. Once you start making money you can do this method for more than one person at the same time.
How much money can I make? Depends on the betting houses available in your country and the number of persons you are doing at once. UK is the best one so far (more BH, more offers) Spain is pretty good also. You have to do your own research for your country.
2. ARBITRAGE BETTING That's what you use for hunting the bonus - moving money between two betting houses without risk because you have placed bets on all the possible options -. You can do it independently. If your country has acces to betting houses where you don't get limit you can move money between them at high profit ranges.
Eg) Valencia-Sevilla.
BBTS YES @2,3 - Betting House 1
BBTS NO @1,97 - Betting House 2
There is a 6,85% profit on this Bet. Which is amazing. Now you could place a €2000 bet. For example betting €1032,72 on option 1 and €1205,69 in option two you would make €136,82 no matter what happens.
What is the problem with this method?

• You need to bet big to win big.
  
• You would get limited in most of the betting houses after that.
  
• This only works on big markets, you can't put this amounts in a Sweden 3rd Division match.
  
• If they cancel the match in one side but not in the other one and your bet wins in the side that has canceled your match... Well.. (Have to say this has never happened to me and it's really weird to happen on big matches).
  

3. TRADING I have done Betting Trading for a while, you can do it WHILE the match is being played or before that. What is the method about? It's about trying to figure out what the odds of one match are going to do before they do. Obviously you need to have strong information about the match you want to bet on.
*Eg) Based on this week. Dortmund-Real Madrid. Dortmund to win opening odd was @2,78 (15th September). The odd right before the match for the same bet was @2,23. WHY? Well, because something has happened between these time. Real Madrid couldn't win Las Palmas the 24th + some injuries + Cristian Ronaldo haven't done his best. And Dortmund won Wolfsburf 1-5 and Freiburg 3-1 in 3 days.
Now let's see somehow you could have seen that Real Madrid would have trouble in Las Palmas stadium and Dortmund would continue winning on Bundesliga.
Let's say you placed a €1000 bet on Dortmund to win @2,78 (day when the bookies offered the match). Then you waited and right before the match was started you bet €1588 on Real Madrid +0,5 @1,75.
You would have made €191,43 and the match would't have even started.*
Check it yourself here
Of course this a risky-long term example, but you can do it before and after the lines-ups. If you think some player won't play because you have strong information about that, place your bet, wait for the odd to raise up and close the bet on the other side aftertwards.
Does anyone really make money this way? Yes. Let's say you know a professional tipster with a lot of subscribers. When this guy shows the next bet a lot of people who have payed for that service will bet there, and usually big amounts of money. If you somehow know where the influential-tipster is going to bet before he posts it to his subscriptors you have your business done. Open bet, wait for the odd to go down, close bet other side.
What does people who doesn't have access to this kind of information (mostly everybody)?. They do big research, check a lot of pages, be documented as posible. If you find something really good some or later the odd will drop. But it's hard to find.
Where to do trading? Pinnacle doesn't limit, that's why most of people uses that BH. Also betfair is an excelent option for this kind of methods.
Good luck with your betting!

Introduction

Hello, subreddit! We at Tipify are pleased to announce that we will be working together with the subreddit to bring you all excellent and consistent competitions and prizes!
Every month we run a competition to find the best tipsters in CS:GO. If you think you can turn a profit from 20 match betting tips or more, you’ll be on the leaderboard. The top 5 win Steam Credit prizes which are currently worth $100 ($50, $25, $15, $5, $5). The more people participating in the competition, the higher the prize pool will grow!

How To Enter

Entering into the competition is extremely simple, all you have to do is follow these steps.

• Head on over to Tipify and click on a match you want to leave a tip on.
  
• Scroll down to the ‘Make a Prediction’ section, select a team, set your stake, confirm. - You’ll start with $100 and can set a max bet of 20%.
  
• You can view the leaderboard here
  

About Tipify

Tipify is a new name to a website with huge history in CS:GO betting. Starting out in 2014 as csgobetting.guru, the site had huge support from the community, offering free predictions from a small group of predictors.
With growing costs and no income, the site was rebuilt and re-branded as CSGOHUB in 2015 with free predictions alongside premium content.
The Tipster update was introduced in March 2016 as a bet tracker, giving users the chance to record their bet history for their own enjoyment. Seeing the benefit of having more opinions weighing in to help our users make a decision on which way to bet, we made these tracked bets available for everyone to view. The competition started in June 2016 as a way to reward the tipsters with the best profits.
In October 2016, realizing the website was capable of much more, we looked to expand into other areas of eSport. The site was re-branded once again to Tipify.gg to cover the expansion to include Dota 2 and Overwatch.
We’re hoping to find all of the best eSport tipsters in the world. Together we can build up a huge social resource to help everyone beat the odds. We run daily, monthly and social giveaways, offer free predictions and want to make eSports betting a social event.
Any monetary reference on Tipify regarding your inventory is just for the purpose of tracking the tips, you can’t withdraw, deposit or buy anything with this. We just do tips, we’re not a gambling site

December

After initially announcing the competition to the subreddit in December - we were delighted to see the amount of users that were interested in the competition and participated, as well as give constant feedback for us to work on. It was great to see that some members of the subreddit did well in the competition too. It's important to note that we are always looking for ways on how to improve the competition and have been applying many changes and improvements that the users have been suggesting to us, with more to come. Overall thank you all for participating in December, we are looking forward to any other potential feedback and good luck tipping!

Introduction

Hello, subreddit! We at Tipify are pleased to announce that we will be working together with the subreddit to bring you all excellent and consistent competitions and prizes!
Every month we run a competition to find the best tipsters in CS:GO. If you think you can turn a profit from 20 match betting tips or more, you’ll be on the leaderboard. The top 5 win Steam Credit prizes which are currently worth $100 ($50, $25, $15, $5, $5). The more people participating in the competition, the higher the prize pool will grow!

How To Enter

Entering into the competition is extremely simple, all you have to do is follow these steps.

• Head on over to Tipify and click on a match you want to leave a tip on.
  
• Scroll down to the ‘Make a Prediction’ section, select a team, set your stake, confirm. - You’ll start with $100 and can set a max bet of 20%.
  
• You can view the leaderboard here
  

About Tipify

Tipify is a new name to a website with huge history in CS:GO betting. Starting out in 2014 as csgobetting.guru, the site had huge support from the community, offering free predictions from a small group of predictors.
With growing costs and no income, the site was rebuilt and re-branded as CSGOHUB in 2015 with free predictions alongside premium content.
The Tipster update was introduced in March 2016 as a bet tracker, giving users the chance to record their bet history for their own enjoyment. Seeing the benefit of having more opinions weighing in to help our users make a decision on which way to bet, we made these tracked bets available for everyone to view. The competition started in June 2016 as a way to reward the tipsters with the best profits.
In October 2016, realizing the website was capable of much more, we looked to expand into other areas of eSport. The site was re-branded once again to Tipify.gg to cover the expansion to include Dota 2 and Overwatch.
We’re hoping to find all of the best eSport tipsters in the world. Together we can build up a huge social resource to help everyone beat the odds. We run daily, monthly and social giveaways, offer free predictions and want to make eSports betting a social event.
Any monetary reference on Tipify regarding your inventory is just for the purpose of tracking the tips, you can’t withdraw, deposit or buy anything with this. We just do tips, we’re not a gambling site

I have no idea if square is reading social media but if they are here's my wishlist:

1. Allow hunts to start/end on the road by having you call a tipster you've already spoken with your phone to phone it in and take a new hunt. Basically just run the Noct phone animation, credit the hunt or run phone animation and show list of hunts. Bonus for letting me do this while driving.
   
2. Rename Alterna to Ultima and make it limit break non-elemental magic that drains all MP and immediately puts you in stasis instead of having it be X-Zone where the spell fails on random mobs. The ring is supposed to be powerful and having a spell that fails on random mobs makes it kind of anti climactic.
   
3. Allow Chocobo rentals from the car. Why can you buy 99 elixirs from the car phone but you can't phone Wiz and wire him 350 Gil?
   
4. FFS make the magitek generator in totomostro 2m medals at most or raise the bet range to 1m medals max. 3.6m medals looks really odd when the next most expensive thing is only 1.2m
   
5. Injured person quests are fine but maybe make the person yell for help a few times as you narrow in like the frog quest. Frogs were easier to find for me than humans because of the audio cue.
   
6. The reward for savior of the species (final Wiz quest) seems like it should be call your chocobo anywhere, anytime for free. The cost is negligible and seems to do nothing beyond act as an annoying barrier after significant use.
   
7. It would be nice if there were an in game reward for collecting the full armiger seeing as how that was a major story point that kind of got lost somewhere around ch10. Maybe faster armiger charge or break damage limit armiger chain, something in game beyond a trophy.
   
8. Make the Angelus a permanent respawn until rest after you take out enough waves of magitek engines. You do this with Red Giants, why not the Angelus?
   
9. Let me pick up item drops on a chocobo. No need for an additional animation or anything just let me pick them up.
   
10. Let me actually pump gas for the type-f just to clean the car. Prompto was complaining endlessly that the car was dirty but because it was the type-f I couldn't actually do the fuel animation to clean the car. Had to make a trip to Altissa for the coating and then service the car at hammerhead to get them to shut up.
    
11. Let me spend Gil as an Elemancy catalyst. It sounds like an odd request but I've always like the "throw Gil" mechanic and seeing my magic flask burst into a bunch of coins would make my day. It can just increase potency (but not uses) every 10 Gil so 999 potency takes at most 10k or so.
    
12. Would it be possible to maybe only make me throw magic flasks when I'm locked onto something? I run into cases where I sprint into combat with magic flask equipped and suddenly Noct throws a flask at his feet hitting everyone except for the mob.
    
13. Would it be possible to have the machinery secondary attack (gravisphere light) actually shot toward the enemy Im locked onto? I run into cases where I'm locked onto an enemy, hit triangle, but have the sphere launched in the direction Noct is facing.
    
14. Would it be too much to ask for a 15th magic flask?
    

There is no point 15 since despite the game being called ffxv, there are a bunch of cases where you only have 14 of something. My inner OCD says whyyyy?

RULES:

• Tuesday’s tip thread will be posted Sunday; Wednesday’s on Monday; Thursday’s on Tuesday; Friday’s on Wednesday.
  
• Please have your previews posted by lunch-time the day of the race. This should give other people enough time to check the thread and check the tips (assuming you’re in the state to!).
  
• Please format your previews something similar to this.
  
• When you post your selection, please confirm if you're advising to Win, Place, E/W, Forecast, whatever, how many points to stake (this is generally done in 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 and 3 points, but it's up to your discretion), and what odds to take and with which betting firm or if you're taking the SP.
  

 
TUESDAY 14th MARCH CARD:

• Cheltenham 13:30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f - taken by StiffyAllDay
  
• Cheltenham 14:10 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m - taken by Moneycantbuyustones
  
• Cheltenham 14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f - taken by docdaneeeka
  
• Cheltenham 15:30 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) 2m ½f - taken by AirIndex
  
• Cheltenham 16:10 - OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares') 2m 4f - taken by smithmustscore
  
• Cheltenham 16:50 - JT McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 4m
  
• Cheltenham 17:30 - Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 4½f - taken by PadsTheFish
  

 
 
WEDNESDAY 15th MARCH CARD:

• Cheltenham 13:30 - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f - taken by Moneycantbuyustones
  
• Cheltenham 14:10 - RSA Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m ½f - taken by StiffyAllDay
  
• Cheltenham 14:50 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f - taken by docdaneeeka
  
• Cheltenham 15:30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m - taken by PadsTheFish
  
• Cheltenham 16:10 - Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country Chase) 3m 6f - taken by AirIndex
  
• Cheltenham 16:50 - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m ½f
  
• Cheltenham 17:30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1) 2m ½f - taken by smithmustscore
  

 
 
THURSDAY 16th MARCH CARD:

• Cheltenham 13:30 - JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices' Chase) 2m 4f - taken by Moneycantbuyustones
  
• Cheltenham 14:10 - Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle) 3m - taken by smithmustscore
  
• Cheltenham 14:50 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) 2m 5f - taken by 12dom89
  
• Cheltenham 15:30 - Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m - taken by StiffyAllDay
  
• Cheltenham 16:10 - Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) 2m 5f- taken by Moneycantbuyustones
  
• Cheltenham 16:50 - Trull House Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle) 2m 1f - taken by AirIndex
  
• Cheltenham 17:30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) 3m 2f - taken by docdaneeeka
  

 
 
FRIDAY 17th MARCH CARD:

• Cheltenham 13:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1f - taken by AirIndex
  
• Cheltenham 14:10 - Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 1f
  
• Cheltenham 14:50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 1) 3m - taken by smithmustscore
  
• Cheltenham 15:30 - Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 3m 2½f - taken by docdaneeeka
  
• Cheltenham 16:10 - St. James's Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup 3m 2½f - taken by StiffyAllDay
  
• Cheltenham 16:50 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle 2m 4½f - taken by PadsTheFish
  
• Cheltenham 17:30 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Grade 3 Handicap) 2m ½f - taken by docdaneeeka
  

 
 
For the time being, please limit yourself to ONE race per day and max ONE Champion race, so everyone else has a fair chance. On Saturday, once everyone has had sufficient chance to check the thread, the festival will be ‘opened up’ and you can take what you like.
Results so far can be viewed here.
Good luck and have fun!